On October 7, 2010, the 13th test launch of the Bulava intercontinental ballistic missile was carried out from a submerged position from the Dmitry Donskoy nuclear submarine. She started from the White Sea and successfully hit the conditional targets at the Kura training ground in Kamchatka. Two more launches of these ICBMs are planned for the current year, the date of which is still unknown.
Bulava launches in 2010, frozen for 10 months after the failure on December 9, 2009, were regularly postponed. Initially, their resumption was planned for the spring of 2010, but then they were postponed due to the need to conduct a thorough control of the missile assembly to identify possible production and engineering errors. At the end of July, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation reported that the ICBM would start in mid-August 2010, but then the tests were again postponed to a later date. This time, the cause was forest fires and, as a result, high smoke levels in the air, which could interfere with visual tracking of the missile's flight.
Project 941 Akula nuclear submarine Dmitry Donskoy entered the White Sea to continue testing Bulava on the night of October 6. Initially, the launch was planned to be carried out before the 10th, but later the date was clarified and set for October 7th. Whether this is a coincidence or an exact calculation, but the next approbation of the rocket, which turned out to be successful, was planned by the military department for the birthday of Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.
DID WHAT COULD
The next launch of the Bulava was preceded by a long 10 months of preparation, during which the manufacturing quality of the promising ICBM was thoroughly checked. According to Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov, this was necessary in order to assemble three identical missiles, the launch of which is scheduled for 2010. One of them has already completed the task on October 7, the second is expected to fly at the end of October, while nothing is known about the test time of the third missile.
So, today there have been 13 Bulava launches in total, only six of which have been recognized as successful. At the same time, the 13th test of ICBMs was the first in 2010, and it was preceded by a long series of failures. The last time the rocket safely reached the Kamchatka test site on November 28, 2008. The military called this launch (ninth), of course, successful, since the Bulava not only flew to the Kura, but also hit all its targets there.
In the course of seven unsuccessful launches, the failure occurred each time in a new rocket assembly. This "floating" issue has generated a lot of speculation. In particular, the opinion was expressed that the difficulties of the Bulava are associated with mistakes made in the design: work on the rocket in 1997 was transferred not to the Makeev Design Bureau of Miass, which specializes in the development of sea-based missile weapons, but to the Moscow Institute of Thermal Engineering (MIT), previously created the Topol-M land-based ICBM. It was also said that the failures of the Bulava are connected with the fact that MIT hastened to complete the bench tests of the missile (only one of its bench tests took place), transferring them to a submarine.
Another version, voiced by a number of Russian officials, said that in the manufacture of the rocket, defects are regularly allowed, which explains the "floating" problems. A more detailed answer to the question of who jinxed the Bulava was given in the spring of 2010 by the then chief designer of the rocket, Yuri Solomonov, the former head of the Moscow Institute of Heat Engineering. According to him, unsuccessful rocket launches are associated with the lack of materials necessary for its creation in the country, as well as with manufacturing defects and insufficient quality control at all stages of manufacturing. In turn, the reason for this could be the disastrous 90s, during which many specialists either changed their occupation or retired.
We should also not forget about the corruption component. At the end of September 2010, a court in Bryansk sentenced two former employees of a certain plant to two years of imprisonment, because of which the equipment intended for the Armed Forces was equipped with civilian rather than military electronics. Neither the names of the convicts, nor the name of the enterprise were announced, but Rossiyskaya Gazeta reported that this plant produces electronics for Bulava missiles. He collects both civilian and military microcircuits. All products are practically indistinguishable in appearance. However, the latter are more reliable, which means they are much more expensive.
At the end of July 2010, the version of the production defect was confirmed by the state commission, which was studying the unsuccessful launch of the Bulava, which took place on December 9, 2009. Then the rocket painted the sky over the Norwegian Tromsø with unprecedented fireworks - during the flight, the sliding nozzle of the Bulava between the first and second stages failed to reach its normal position. The reason for this was not an engineering mistake, but a manufacturing defect - during previous flights of the rocket, the nozzle was advanced as intended by the designers. To combat the scammers, the Ministry of Defense not only carried out a thorough check of the enterprises involved in the manufacture of ICBMs, but also threatened to revise the entire scheme of its creation.
So, in mid-September 2010, Anatoly Serdyukov said that if the unsuccessful Bulava launches continue, the system of production and quality control of missile assembly will be completely changed. What changes are specifically envisaged, the Minister of Defense did not say. It is possible that they meant both personnel changes within the team involved in the project, and a complete change of all enterprises involved in the manufacture of test missiles. At present, the Bulava is produced at the plant in Votkinsk, in the same place as the Topol. A few days after the statement of the head of the military department, it became known that Yuri Solomonov had lost his post as chief designer of the rocket and headed the subdivision of the Moscow Institute of Thermal Engineering, engaged in the development of ground-based missiles. Alexander Sukhodolsky has been appointed the chief designer of the Bulava.
FUTURE TESTS
Apparently, the threat of Anatoly Serdyukov and all previous efforts to control the quality of the assembly had the desired effect. In any case, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense, the launch, which was carried out on October 7, 2010, was completely normal and all the warheads arrived at their destination at the Kura training ground. If we proceed from the assumption that under the control of the military department, three identical Bulavas were indeed created, then the next two launches should also be crowned with success. In this case, it will be possible to confidently assume that the experts have discovered the "curse" of the failed missile. Whether it will be possible to get rid of it is another question.
In the meantime, according to the plan, the second launch of the Bulava in 2010 will also take place in the waters of the White Sea. The rocket launches from the Dmitry Donskoy nuclear submarine, and if the flight is successful, the third launch will take place from the Yuri Dolgoruky strategic nuclear submarine of project 955 Borey. She is a regular carrier of advanced weapons and has already passed all factory tests. In fact, this third, undoubtedly, the most important launch of the Bulava will become not only an approbation of ICBMs, but also an exam for the combat use of the submarine itself. Indeed, in this case, both the effectiveness and the accuracy of the interaction between the missile and the nuclear submarine weapons systems will be checked.
Meanwhile, the Ministry of Defense was not slow to express quite optimistic assumptions about the near future of the Bulava. So, shortly after the 13th launch of the rocket, Chief of the General Staff Nikolai Makarov reported on the success to President Dmitry Medvedev, after which it was announced that two more tests of ICBMs needed to be carried out and it could be put into service. And the General Staff of the Navy even specified: this will happen in mid-2011, if all Bulava launches in 2010 end well. At about the same time, the Yuri Dolgoruky will be included in the Russian Navy.
It should be noted that these conclusions seem to be premature so far. Apparently, in order to be able to talk about a successful completion of the program, it is necessary to carry out many more successful launches of the Bulava, so that their number significantly exceeds the number of unsuccessful ones. Otherwise, according to the logic of the military, the missile should have been put into service five years ago - three successful tests in a row took place on September 23, 2004, September 27 and December 21, 2005. However, soon after that, a black streak came - three failures in a row in 2006. Considering the novelty of most of the missile's components and its very design, it is better to refrain from a hasty decision on the fate of the Bulava for the time being.
NO EXIT
It should be noted that there is still little reliable information on the technical characteristics of the rocket. It is three-stage, with all three stages being solid fuel. The Bulava is designed in such a way that its launch is carried out in an inclined plane, which allows ICBMs to be launched underwater from a moving submarine. The rocket carries from six to ten nuclear units with a capacity of 150 kilotons and a total mass of up to 1, 15 tons. It is curious that all warheads will be able to maneuver in yaw and pitch. Together with the "prowling" third stage, this feature will increase the Bulava's chances to overcome the missile defense system of a potential enemy. The flight range of the ICBM is about eight thousand kilometers.
In the future, "Bulava" should become the main weapon of the strategic nuclear submarines of project 955 / 955A / 955U "Borey", each of which will carry from 16 to 20 missiles. In particular, Yuri Dolgoruky is equipped with 16 missile silos. Nuclear submarine missile carriers of the Borey project have a displacement of 24 thousand tons and are capable of diving to a depth of 450 meters. The submarines can reach speeds of up to 29 knots. In addition to missile silos for the R-30, the submarines will receive six torpedo tubes. At present, the submarines "Vladimir Monomakh", "Alexander Nevsky" and "Svyatitel Nikolay" are at the Sevmash shipyard in varying degrees of readiness.
Both nuclear submarines and new missiles will become the most important element of Russia's nuclear triad. It is believed that the adoption of the Bulava and submarines of the Borei project into service will correct the disturbed balance of power in the Russian nuclear triad, and will also bring the naval component of the strategic forces to a new level. This will be ensured by a fundamentally new design of the Bulava and its capabilities, as well as the capabilities of fourth-generation nuclear submarines.
At the end of 2009, Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov said that over 40% of Russia's defense budget is spent annually on the Navy. It's simple. The autonomy of navigation of nuclear submarines is limited only by the endurance of the crew and the supply of provisions. In addition, stealth is an important quality of submarines. Thus, strategic nuclear submarines have the ability to quietly deliver nuclear weapons to almost any point in the World Ocean. At the same time, the submarine is extremely difficult to detect until the very moment of launching the rocket.
At the same time, the failures of Bulava, if they continue, will once again jeopardize the Borey project. At the end of 2009, a number of Russian media reported that the nuclear submarine construction program of this project could be frozen, or even closed completely. However, the spreading rumors were soon dispelled by the Russian Ministry of Defense, which, however, did not confirm or deny the information about the possible suspension of the implementation of Borey. But in anticipation, when the "Bulava" will be adopted, the submarines themselves do not get younger. In addition, it is no longer possible to abandon the Borey - too much money was spent on the creation of submarines, one of which has completed all the tests and is preparing to launch the Bulava.
Last year, some experts expressed the opinion that Russia should abandon its plans for the Bulava, and re-equip the built Project 955 submarines for already existing missiles, for example, under the RSM-54 Sineva. In particular, it was stated that this missile is already in service, has been tested by numerous test launches, is capable of delivering warheads to a distance of 8, 3 thousand kilometers and carry up to eight warheads. True, this did not take into account that replacing missile silos on submarines is a laborious and very expensive business. In addition, Sineva is much larger than Bulava in size and is vulnerable to a promising multilayer missile defense system. Such a system, for example, is being formed today by the United States with the assistance of NATO.
It should also not be forgotten that the successful tests of the Bulava are a kind of a matter of prestige for the Moscow Institute of Thermal Engineering, which was previously engaged in the creation of only ground-based missiles. Initially, the Bulava project provided for a high degree of unification with the Topol-M and RS-24 Yars land-based ICBMs. Currently, the degree of unification of missiles has been significantly reduced, but they still have some common elements. For example, for these missiles, produced at the same plant in Votkinsk, the platforms for breeding warheads are almost identical. Thus, in fact, subsequent unsuccessful launches of the Bulava can damage the reputation of the Topol and Yars. For this reason, the Moscow Institute of Thermal Engineering, no less than the Ministry of Defense, should be interested in careful quality control of the missiles assembled in Votkinsk.
On the one hand, it is possible to understand the Bulava's failures - after all, when creating a rocket, the Moscow Institute of Thermal Engineering decided to abandon the classical schemes for constructing liquid-fuel missiles for submarines. "Bulava" is a solid-fuel rocket, more compact than the same "Sineva". In addition, according to the Institute, the missile has a lower flight profile and is capable of unexpectedly and abruptly changing its flight trajectory to overcome the enemy's anti-missile shield. According to Solomonov, it is also resistant to the factors of a nuclear explosion and the effects of laser weapons. By the way, the laser component of antimissile defense has been created in the United States for several years now, and it has even been tested. However, the effectiveness of laser weapons against strategic missiles is questionable.
On the other hand, before, when testing new missiles for submarines, there have never been such a large number of failures. For example, a total of 42 R-29RM test launches were made (later formed the basis of Sineva), of which 31 were successful, and when testing, say, the R-27 in the 60s, all 24 launches from the submarine were successful. … Against this background, Bulava's indicators - 13/6 - are not outstanding. However, the chances that all its failures were associated with a manufacturing defect are quite high, but it is too early to talk about full confirmation of this assumption - it is necessary to wait for the test flight of the remaining two missiles, identical to the one that flew on Vladimir Putin's birthday.
