Already in 2021, the Pentagon plans to adopt the first workable models of promising hypersonic weapons. Now these projects are at different stages, and their current status gives reasons for optimistic assessments. Of greatest interest is the joint program of the US Army, Air Force and Navy, which combined several previous projects.
Combining efforts
Currently, the United States is working on several options for hypersonic combat systems of various kinds. At the same time, there were slightly more such projects until last year. In 2018, foreign media repeatedly mentioned the Pentagon's plans to combine several current projects into a common program, thereby saving resources and time.
In October, it became known about the adoption of such a decision. The Army's Advanced Hypersonic Weapon (AHW) program, the Air Force's Hypersonic Conventional Strike Weapon (HCSW) project, and the Navy's Conventional Prompt Strike (CPS) program have combined. Further work was proposed to be carried out within the framework of a single program in the interests of all three structures.
At the same time, some details of the new hypersonic program became known. In a single project, it is planned to use the developments on all three previous ones, choosing the most successful and corresponding to the tasks set. The result of the work should be a whole family of unified hypersonic systems suitable for operation in the army, navy and air force.
According to various sources, it is proposed to take a ready-made planning hypersonic warhead from an existing project and, with minimal modifications, make several missile systems from it for different types of troops. The advantages of this approach are obvious. The time for developing projects is reduced, and in addition, it becomes possible to obtain maximum unification. Thus, weapons with the desired parameters will appear earlier and will be cheaper.
Warheads and their carriers
The Pentagon is in no hurry to publish the technical details of the new project, which leads to known results. So, last year, the words of a representative of the US Air Force about the results of tests on various programs and about their consequences were actively discussed. It is important that such statements were made before the news about the merger of the project appeared.
It was argued that the army planning warhead AHW proved to be better than the HCSW product for the Air Force in testing. In this regard, there was a proposal to take an "army" product, supplement it with an "aviation" carrier rocket and equip the B-52H bomber with such a system. The possibility of creating similar weapons for the ground forces and the naval forces was also mentioned.
In recent months, there have been various unconfirmed data on the further development of the joint hypersonic program. They allow us to present a rough picture, but its reliability is still in question. However, its main points look plausible and may be confirmed in the future.
The basis for a promising hypersonic ammunition, designed for three branches of the military, is supposed to take the AHW product, which has already passed tests and has proven itself well. It will be finalized taking into account the test results and the specifics of future applications. The United States has solid experience in the creation and use of new materials, as well as layout and other solutions required to create hypersonic systems. This requires the creation of some new units.
At the end of April 2019, Sandia National Laboratories announced their involvement in the development of new weapons. One of the departments of this organization is engaged in the creation of navigation and guidance for future weapons. The possibility of creating an autopilot with elements of artificial intelligence is being considered. He will have to carry out flight control, including in difficult conditions and in a completely autonomous mode. Automation will have to quickly make the right decisions without relying on human participation.
For a modified AHW product, you will need multiple media. So, for the Air Force it is required to create a booster rocket compatible with existing and future bombers. Probably, its carriers will be the existing B-52H and promising B-21. The ground forces and the navy require a missile that provides an intercontinental firing range. In the case of the navy, the missile must be compatible with existing and developing submarines. These will probably be Ohio and Columbia class ships.
Ambiguous optimism
The AHW hypersonic aircraft made its first test flight in 2011, and further tests took place thereafter. There is reason to believe that by now this project has advanced far enough, and its revised version will be able to meet the requirements for real weapons. However, it is clear that converting an existing technology demonstrator into a usable product is not an easy task.
Also, within the framework of the new program, it is necessary to create new missiles, and in addition, it will be necessary to adapt platforms for such weapons. All these works are not particularly simple, they are also associated with financial expenses and they will take some time.
According to last year's reports, the Pentagon wants to receive the first combat-ready hypersonic systems as early as 2021. Given the previous history of the three combined projects, it can be assumed that such a timeline is quite realistic. At the same time, the complexity of the work required makes it possible to doubt the possibility of meeting the specified deadlines.
The most plausible at the moment looks like the following forecast. The American industry will be able to create the required weapons and, possibly, will even fulfill all the wishes of the Pentagon - first of all, regarding the unification of missile systems for different types of troops. However, such a program will go beyond the established schedule and will not be able to do only with the initially allocated funds. This has happened regularly in the past and in the present, and therefore there is no reason to believe that the most complex promising project will end with different results.
From the point of view of a potential adversary
Obviously, a new version of the AHW and other hypersonic systems are being developed in response to the threat of similar weapons from Russia and China. The Russian Avangard hypersonic missile system will begin to enter service this year, and the Chinese WU-14 / DF-ZF is expected to be adopted in the future. The United States has reason to consider itself lagging in this direction.
By adopting its own complex, the United States will be able to ensure parity with potential adversaries. Russia and China, in turn, should view the AHW as a threat to their security and take the necessary measures. The Chinese and Russian military can use their leadership in the hypersonic sphere to create defenses against such enemy weapons.
At the moment, hypersonic systems are capable of overcoming existing air defense and missile defense systems. At the same time, the pros and cons of such weapons are well known, and this allows you to identify their "weak points" that can be used in the fight against them. However, the creation of means of protection against hypersonic systems is extremely difficult, and workable samples of this kind will appear only in the future.
According to the optimistic plans of the Pentagon, a fundamentally new weapon will enter service in the early twenties. There is not too much time left before its appearance, and therefore the likely adversaries of the United States - including our country - need to take action. However, it cannot be ruled out that in parallel with the creation of hypersonic technology in our country, methods were created to combat it. Thanks to this, in 2021, our armed forces will have the means to counter new American complexes.
The military-political situation in the world cannot be called simple, and there is more and more reason to expect a new Cold War with an arms race. As last time, systems of fundamentally new classes will become the engine of the arms race. It seems that hypersonic strike systems will be the first to fall into this category. The leading countries are well aware of this and therefore are taking the necessary measures.
