The next stage of the diplomatic war between NATO and Russia, around the European missile defense system, continues. At the beginning of the year, representatives of our country made statements that if a solution that suits Russia is not found, Moscow will apply the most severe measures.
Possible outcome
The main measure that our country will have to take is the withdrawal from the recently entered into force of the START-3 Treaty. In addition, to create a potential for the destruction of missile defense systems, Russia will be able to deploy strike groups of missile weapons on various borders of Europe.
Before the Russia-NATO Council started working in Sochi, it was known that Russia's demands are, in fact, of an ultimatum: either we will agree, or we will start implementing the previously promised measures. Moreover, it is clear that even if the president is replaced in Russia, this will not be able to influence such plans - this is the consolidated position of the entire top military-political elite of the country. Nevertheless, the agreement in Sochi did not take place - everything remained as it was. The negotiators are trying to smooth out the tension from the harsh statements, but everyone understands: the clouds are gathering.
Is the threat real?
The main question is whether Russia will translate into reality the previously promised retaliatory measures. There is no need to approach events yet.
The planned European missile defense system cannot now threaten (SNF) Russia's strategic nuclear forces. The SM-3 Block IA interceptor missile, which is in service with NATO, can be opposed only with operational-tactical missiles, and not all of them. So far, our Iskander-M is too tough for anyone.
The Block IB modification, which is now being tested, has a slightly higher altitude and interception range, but it will be very difficult for it to shoot down even medium-range missiles. By 2016–2017 in the United States, it is planned to create new modifications of its anti-missiles. As they stated, the missiles will be able to intercept targets at a range of more than 1,500 km and hit ICBMs. But not all can be hit, but only those with a launch range of up to 6000 km.
It would seem that these missiles will indeed be able to pose at least some kind of threat to the missile divisions of the Strategic Missile Forces, which are deployed in the European part of the Russian Federation. Their launching ICBMs will not even have time to complete the acceleration, separate the stages, move the warheads apart and release funds that could help overcome the missile defense. Our missiles, which can launch to targets in the United States, bypassing the North Pole from positions in the division of the Vladimir Missile Army, cannot intercept American anti-missiles. Since they will need to catch up with them from a very uncomfortable position. But if we attack with missiles, for example, England, they will intercept. But this variant of the consumption of the missiles closest to Europe is practically impossible - such targets are worked out by other means of strategic nuclear forces from other regions.
It is quite understandable that Russia is justifiably concerned about the very fact of the deployment of interceptor missiles and, what is much worse, the missile defense radar. Yes, so far, interceptor missiles that would be able to catch up with ICBMs do not exist. But later, it may appear. The Americans also began to work on the development of the head part of an interceptor missile with several interceptors, and this is already dangerous.
Therefore, during the negotiations, Russia will put pressure on its interlocutors, prepare countermeasures and actually turn them into those that will not require the destruction of the hard-won negotiated regime. In addition, the chance to agree on missile defense issues is still real today. The execution of the ultimatum can be started at any time.
Avangard, Inevitability and Liner
In connection with the discussions on missile defense, it is interesting to look at a whole series of well-controlled (others in this delicate sphere, strategic nuclear forces and there can be no) "leaks" about the new products being tested and developed in Russia in the field of missile defense.
Just recently, at the end of May, an ordinary, as it looked, launch of a ballistic missile from a missile submarine cruiser Yekaterinburg was carried out. But a few days later it became known: instead of the new, but already in 2007, the Sineva-2 rocket, which had been in service, a new rocket, the Liner, was successfully tested. So far, no one can say for sure what kind of rocket it is - "Liner". The title of this work flashed only in the annual report of the developer company.
The most probable guess is the following: "Liner" is "Sineva-2", which improved protection against missile defense in the initial phase and added new, more advanced warheads. That is why, being more vulnerable in comparison with the Bulava at the start, the Sineva will reduce its lag behind the new missile.
Almost a few days ago, Russian Defense Minister Serdyukov made a statement: “The supply of strategic missiles will more than triple (Avangard, Yars, Topol-M), and ballistic missiles for submarines (Sineva, "Bulava") - 1.5 times."
Of course, this is heartbreaking news. But everyone who understands at least a little bit of strategic stability was interested in the mention of the mysterious Avangard ICBM. What is it? Assumptions that Avangard is a promising heavy ICBM, which will be replaced by Voevoda (according to NATO's classification, Satan SS-18), are clearly wrong. And the fact is that the adoption of such a "heavyweight champion" before 2015–2018. not planned. And Mr. Serdyukov spoke about the production of serial products.
There is an assumption that Avangard is the more advanced Yars ICBM. It is assumed that the new warhead will lack the stage of disengagement, which guides the warheads to the target. Now they will diverge to separate targets using the built-in motors. This assumption drives another nail into the coffin of the US missile defense. Not so long ago, Yuri Solomonov spoke about the coffin in his interview. But Avangard may well be a mine version of the mobile Yars.
But the most possible, according to experts, version is that Avangard is a completely new missile system, the development of which was carried out in the strictest secrecy. Before the first launch, there was not a single rumor about Yars either. But even to this day, the majority considers Yars to be only Topol-M, which has a split warhead. But this is not the case. "Yars" differs both in the new type of fuel and in other units - it is a completely new system based on the old one. It is likely that Avangard may be a completely new complex, with unknown capabilities and characteristics.
