The US Congress Commission on Economic and Security Relations with China issued a new report a few days ago. According to the commission, as early as next year, the People's Liberation Army of China will begin operating new JL-2 ballistic missiles ("Juilan-2" - "Big Wave-2"). A few months ago, reports appeared in the American press, according to which the first campaigns of new Chinese strategic submarines will begin in 2014. Thus, over the coming months, China's strategic nuclear forces will undergo significant changes, which will result in a radical change and strengthening of the naval component of the nuclear triad.
From the available information, it follows that the naval part of the Chinese nuclear forces is the weakest and is significantly inferior to the air and ground. At the moment, the PLA Navy has only one nuclear submarine with ballistic missiles (SSBN). The only submarine of project 092 (Xia-class according to NATO classification) was built in the eighties and since then has been operated with great restrictions by Chinese sailors. A characteristic feature of the first Chinese SSBN project was numerous problems, due to which most of the time the only type 092 submarine stays at the base most of the time. In addition, this submarine is relatively weakly armed. It carries 12 JL-1A missiles, which are capable of hitting targets at ranges of up to 1,700 kilometers and therefore belong to the class of medium-range missiles. Such weapons are not enough to solve the problems of nuclear deterrence, especially given the fact that there is only one carrier submarine in the ranks.
At the end of 2006, the first information appeared about a new project of Chinese submarines with ballistic missiles. As it turned out a little later, the submarine discovered by satellites belongs to the 094 project, which received the NATO designation Jin-class. To date, Chinese factories have built three such submarines out of the planned five. At the same time, none of the new submarines is still involved in China's "nuclear shield". The main reason for this is the problems with the creation of a new ballistic missile. The JL-2 project has been plagued by setbacks for several years. Only in 2012, the Chinese defense industry managed to conduct several successful test launches, thanks to which the program for the development of a new strategic missile got off the ground.
As follows from the data of the commission of the US Congress, the tests and development of the JL-2 rocket are close to completion, which will allow in the foreseeable future to deploy the mass production and operation of missiles in the naval forces. The new JL-2 rocket uses the latest developments of the Chinese industry, which made it possible to achieve quite large success. The two-stage rocket with a launch weight of about 23 tons is equipped with a solid-propellant engine of the first stage and a liquid-propellant second. According to open data, the missile's range reaches 8,000 kilometers. The type of warhead and its power are unknown.
The launch of Project 094 submarines with JL-2 ballistic missiles will allow China not only to strengthen the naval component of the nuclear triad, but to literally re-create it. The commissioning of all five planned submarines will lead to the fact that up to 60 ballistic missiles will be on duty at a time. The total number of warheads is questionable, since it is not known how many warheads each JL-2 missile carries. Nevertheless, the total number of missile warheads deployed on Project 094 submarines will in any case exceed 60 units.
China carefully conceals information about its nuclear potential, so it is impossible to say exactly what the share of missiles on SSBNs will be in the structure of all strategic nuclear forces. According to various estimates, no more than 200-250 carriers with nuclear warheads are currently deployed in the Chinese armed forces. Thus, while maintaining the existing quantitative aspects of the ground and air parts of the nuclear triad, the commissioning of all five new submarines will increase the number of deployed carriers by 20-25%. So far, of course, we are not talking about the exploitation of all five submarines. In the coming years, only three missile submarines will be admitted to the People's Liberation Army of China. However, the 36 ballistic missiles deployed on them can have a tangible impact on the Chinese nuclear forces.
Not so long ago there was fragmentary information about the new Chinese SSBN project with the code designation "096". According to reports, the submarines of this project will carry not 12, but 24 missiles. In addition, there are rumors about the creation of a new ballistic missile with a longer range. Given the peculiarities of the appearance and disclosure of information about the state of the Chinese armed forces, one can make the most daring assumptions. For example, the construction of the lead submarine of Project 096 may already be underway. The existence of such a submarine will certainly have the greatest impact on the numerical aspects of the naval part of China's nuclear triad, since one 096 submarine will be able to carry as many missiles as two 094s.
The latest news about the Chinese program for the creation of SSBNs and missiles for them add up to a single understandable picture. Apparently, China has mastered all the technologies necessary for the construction of strategic missile submarines and ballistic missiles for them, in connection with which in the near future it will begin to implement new plans. A logical continuation of the commissioning of several SSBNs is the organization of regular campaigns. It is in patrolling at a great distance from the coast that the main task of strategic missile submarines lies. After leaving the base, the submarine is capable of launching missiles at the right time at targets in enemy territory.
Thus, in the event of the start of regular sailings to the sea, the submarines of project 094 will not only be more useful than the only ship of project 092, but will even ensure the normal functioning of the naval component of the nuclear forces. The technical condition of the only submarine of Project 092 and its almost constant stay at the base (even without taking into account the low characteristics of the JL-1A missiles) does not allow fully solving the tasks inherent in SSBNs.
Thus, despite the mass of work lasting several decades, China has only now been able to create a full-fledged naval component of the nuclear triad. The result will be the emergence of a new deterrent against potential adversaries. At the same time, however, China declares not to be the first to use nuclear weapons, and also does not intend to use them against non-nuclear countries. In light of such statements, the list of countries that should take into account the new Chinese SSBNs consists of only a few items. Therefore, the nuclear powers should take into account the recent successes of China and draw appropriate conclusions.
