The mass media of the Russian Federation have developed the practice of publishing articles with incessant criticism regarding the capabilities of the military-industrial complex (MIC) of Ukraine. A one-sided view of a problem, no matter whether it is optimistic or pessimistic, never leads to good consequences. Undoubtedly, the capabilities of the military-industrial complex of Ukraine are in many ways inferior to both the capabilities of the military-industrial complex of Russia and the leading countries of the world, but it is wrong to talk about its absence and the complete collapse of industry. In this regard, I propose to look from the other side and study the state of the Ukrainian military-industrial complex, what factors can help it to start producing modern weapons, and which ones.
After the collapse of the USSR and the proclamation of independence of Ukraine, about 17% of the military-industrial complex of the USSR remained on its territory, which in total amounted to about two thousand enterprises, which employed over seven hundred thousand people.
As a result of the general economic degradation of the state, corruption, lack of political will and the breakdown of cooperative ties with Russian enterprises, the military-industrial complex of Ukraine suffered significant losses. The lack of a large state defense order on the part of the Ukrainian armed forces, due to the chronic lack of money and oversaturation with weapons samples left over from the collapse of the USSR, forced the defense factories to cut a huge number of personnel. The closure of research and development work (R&D, R&D) conducted during the Soviet period led to the loss of many key competencies.
In many respects, these problems are typical for the Russian military-industrial complex, but a significantly larger margin of safety, better funding, and the understanding that the Russian Federation is in any case goal number 1 for the United States and NATO, made it possible to preserve and further modernize a significant part of the Soviet legacy.
As in Russia in the 90s, the attention of the military-industrial complex of Ukraine was directed to foreign markets. It would seem that a powerful industry, an advanced Soviet engineering school and low cost guaranteed success? However, everything turned out to be not so simple. The main competition of the military-industrial complex of Ukraine was the armed forces of Ukraine itself. As mentioned earlier, a huge amount of military equipment of the armed forces of the USSR was left to rust in the warehouses. This led to the fact that the main export successes of Ukraine are associated with the sale abroad of repaired equipment from warehouses or its modernized versions. Moreover, with a high probability, the non-modernized equipment was implemented according to various gray schemes, from which neither the state nor the military-industrial complex received anything.
The ability to qualitatively modernize military equipment of previous generations is extremely important, this allows for the longest possible use of it in the armed forces, to "squeeze" everything possible from the initially laid down potential. However, if you only do this, then the military-industrial complex can forget how to produce conceptually new weapons, endlessly trying to make a sort of ideal "samurai sword" out of an outdated tank.
The most significant success of the Ukrainian military-industrial complex was the signing of an agreement with Pakistan in 1996 for the supply of 320 T-80UD produced in Kharkov to the parties. The contract value was about $ 650 million. There is a version of the loss of Russia, which participated in this tender with the T-90 tank, due to disagreements with one of the largest customers - India, which is a strategic enemy of Pakistan.
The implementation of this contract was given to Ukraine not without difficulty. Some of the components were removed from the mothballed obsolete armored vehicles, and the production of tank cannon barrels was mastered at the Frunze plant in Sumy, which previously produced heavy pipes for oil and gas production.
In the future, the export of Ukrainian weapons was also based on the modernization, in some cases deep processing, of Soviet weapons. Due to the general degradation of the industry, problems periodically arise with the quality of the manufacture of components, including with the barrels of guns and armor steel. All this does not in the best way affect the image of Ukrainian equipment and weapons.
After the coup d'état that took place in Ukraine and the coming to power of the nationalist government, it turned out that the equipment of the armed forces of Ukraine (APU) with modern military equipment leaves much to be desired. For several decades of independence, new equipment practically did not arrive, and the existing one fell into disrepair. The fighting between the breakaway People's Republic of Luhansk, the Donetsk People's Republic (LPR, DPR) and the Ukrainian Armed Forces showed how deplorable the latter are.
Taking a course of tough confrontation with Russia, the Ukrainian authorities took steps to modernize industry, on the basis of the remnants of the dilapidated military-industrial complex. It can hardly be said that this has led to significant success, but there is some kind of forward movement. In recent years, the Ukrainian military-industrial complex annually announces the appearance of certain types of weapons, mainly for the ground forces.
Not all of the announced weapons are ready for mass production, and some are only at the R&D stage.
What advantages can the Ukrainian military-industrial complex receive over the Russian military-industrial complex?
Here the only correct answer suggests itself. The Ukrainian military-industrial complex receives and will receive all-round support from Western countries. There will be no restrictions on the supply of components, electronics, machine tools. Of course, no one will give Ukraine access to advanced exclusive technologies, or access to technologies for creating strategic weapons, but in other areas cooperation, up to the joint implementation of certain types of weapons and military equipment (AME), is more than possible.
Someone may say that this is rather a minus, and it is better to create everything on your own. For Russia, this is indeed the case, and it is extremely difficult, since it has to resist the intellectual and technical potential of half of the planet. For a state at the level of Ukraine, this is impossible in principle. In addition, if in the long term the borrowing of components from the production of other countries poses a threat to the country's independence and weakens its military-industrial complex as a whole, in the short term it makes it possible to obtain products with higher characteristics than those of competitors.
Do not forget that engineers-developers of military equipment in Ukraine are the heirs of the mighty Soviet school, not all knowledge has been lost, and active nationalist agitation and the infusion of funds are able to stimulate this part of the industry.
What weapons can the military-industrial complex of Ukraine potentially be able to produce, and which not? And which ones pose a threat to Russia and the breakaway republics?
First of all, this is the creation of missile weapons. After the termination of the Treaty on Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles (INF Treaty), voices are already being heard in Ukraine about the possibility of starting the development of missiles of this class. Theoretically, Ukraine can have certain competencies in this matter. Do not forget about the Yuzhnoye Design Bureau, the lead developer of the legendary Satan strategic missile.
At the moment, the Ukrainian authorities have announced the creation of an operational-tactical missile system (OTRK) "Thunder", which is essentially an analogue of the Russian "Iskander" complex. According to the Yuzhnoye design bureau, the development work for this complex is moving towards completion.
It is likely that in the event of a successful launch of the GROM complex into series, the presence of domestic and export orders and funding from the state, attempts may be made to create long-range missile systems. It should be noted that these attempts are likely to run into opposition from Ukraine's Western allies, who are not at all interested in the proliferation of long-range weapons and technologies for their creation. So, Ukraine should definitely not expect help in this matter.
The same can be said about the idea of developing nuclear weapons soaring in Ukraine. At best, an attempt to develop nuclear weapons will be slammed by the heavy friendly hand of the United States. In the worst case, the developers will be shot by the agents of the Israeli MOSSAD, out of justified fears that the technology of the newborn atomic bomb, for a certain financial reward, will sail to Iran.
Also in Ukraine, a subsonic low-flying anti-ship missile (ASM) "Neptune" is being developed. This anti-ship missile is being developed by KB "Luch", its design is based on the Soviet / Russian anti-ship missile X-35 "Uran". The maximum firing range is called up to 300 kilometers. The missile can be fired in ship, ground and aircraft versions.
On tests, the rocket was pursued by a number of failures, but most likely it will one way or another be brought to mass production.
Both OTRK "Thunder" and anti-ship missiles "Neptune", if brought to mass production, can pose a certain threat to the armed forces of the Russian Federation. Undoubtedly, their use will mean the beginning of full-scale hostilities between Russia and Ukraine, and will not bring anything good to either side. But it is precisely the presence of more or less adequate modern offensive weapons that can prompt the Ukrainian authorities to strike at a base in Crimea or attack a Russian Navy ship in the hope that a full-scale Russian response will force the US and other NATO countries to intervene.
For Russia and Ukraine, minus the irreversibly deranged representatives of the population on both sides, this situation is unpleasant in that it can lead to a complete rupture between our countries. The war will result in casualties on both sides, both military and civilian. These sacrifices in the future will always stand in the way of reconciliation and unification of the two countries, making the situation similar to those that exist between India and Pakistan, North and South Korea.
In theory, it is possible to develop a Ukrainian space program based on Zenit rockets, but in practice, breaking cooperation ties with Russia will lead to significant problems when trying to revive this project. Perhaps representatives of foreign business will be interested in the Zenith missile, but this will most likely be realized in the form of purchasing all design documentation, equipment and specialists, and the new Zenith will be sold in another country and from foreign components.
Another area in which the Ukrainian military-industrial complex can achieve success is the creation of ground-based armored combat vehicles, rocket artillery and anti-tank guided missiles (ATGM). The significant backlog that Ukraine inherited from the armored industry of the USSR allows today to produce quite competitive samples.
In particular, Ukraine is actively developing a line of T-64 / T-80 tanks developed in the USSR. Most of the components, including the engine, the fire control system (FCS), active and dynamic protection, can be produced by the forces of the Ukrainian military-industrial complex.
There are problems with the manufacture and quality of some components affecting the serial production of new tanks. This is clearly illustrated by the constant delays in the delivery of 49 Oplot-M tanks to Thailand.
One way or another, but the Ukrainian industry is actively developing the direction of the development and production of tanks and other armored vehicles. Expansion of cooperation with NATO countries can be expected in this field. For example, in the event of a loss of competence in the production of tank guns, it will not be surprising to see the appearance on promising Ukrainian tanks of guns produced by German companies. This also applies to the supply of OMS, communications equipment and other components.
The same KB "Luch", which creates the anti-ship missile system "Neptune", has developed and put into mass production the anti-tank missile system (ATGM) "Stugna-P" with a firing range of about 5000 meters. This ATGM most likely uses a laser guidance system similar to that used on the Russian Kornet ATGM (KBP JSC, Tula). Large-scale production of such complexes can pose a serious threat to the armed forces of the LPR and DPR.
Another weapon complex that poses a threat to the armed forces of the LPR and DPR is the Alder multiple launch rocket system (MLRS), which has a firing range of about 120 kilometers. Despite the significant reserves of MLRS inherited from the USSR, the Ukrainian military-industrial complex, represented by the aforementioned Luch KB, has been developing this complex since 2016, which is, in fact, something in between the classic MLRS and Tochka-U OTRK. The missiles of the Alder complex are equipped with a guidance system that minimizes deviation from a given target, which makes it possible to hit targets point-wise, rather than work across areas. When using only the inertial guidance system, the average deviation of the rocket is 50 m, when using GPS correction, it is about 7 m.
Also, the military-industrial complex of Ukraine is capable of producing in the interests of the ground forces such weapons as remotely controlled weapons modules, mortars, small arms and sniper weapons, including the so-called "anti-material" rifles of 12.7 mm caliber.
In the field of creating anti-aircraft missile systems (SAM) from the military-industrial complex of Ukraine, it is difficult to expect something significantly more than the modernization of samples from the Soviet legacy. Theoretically, in cooperation with NATO countries, new short-range air defense systems can be developed, but it is difficult to say what the share of the Ukrainian side will be in them.
In the field of aircraft construction, the Ukrainian military-industrial complex can show itself in the creation of military transport aviation (MTA) aircraft of low and medium carrying capacity. This is more likely if foreign avionics and engines are used. The development of the aviation industry is an extremely complex process, so it can be expected that the development and production of new aircraft for the Ukrainian military-industrial complex will face difficulties and delays.
The appearance of combat aircraft in the future is possible only in the form of surrogate alterations from transport aircraft or the simplest subsonic jet aircraft of the "attack" type. The creation of modern fighter aircraft for the Ukrainian military-industrial complex is not feasible in the foreseeable future.
The competence of the Ukrainian military-industrial complex in the development and production of helicopters can be assessed by the NADIA helicopter presented by Motor Sich JSC, which is essentially a reworking of the ancient Mi-2 helicopter. On the other hand, Ukraine can be a supplier of helicopter engines manufactured by Motor Sich JSC. This is a critical technology, the development and support of which can provide Ukraine with a place in the cooperative development of new helicopters with any state.
It is also difficult to expect the resumption of the development and construction of heavy transport aircraft - the business card of the Antonov Design Bureau. American and European companies do not need competitors in this field at all, so they will not have to expect help from them. India or China would rather prefer to work in this direction with Russia as a more predictable partner. In the best case, Ukraine will be able to sell (if not already sold) the technical documentation for the aircraft developed by the Antonov Design Bureau.
The Ukrainian military-industrial complex is actively developing projects for small UAVs intended for reconnaissance of the battlefield. It can be noted here that, taking into account the development of modern technologies, this direction, up to a certain level, is comparable in complexity with advanced aircraft modeling. The main advantages of the UAV are manifested when it is possible to withdraw from the terrestrial radio communication, therefore, a much more difficult task is to create a global UAV control system. Unfortunately, the Russian military-industrial complex also has problems in this area.
In the field of building the navy, Ukraine as part of the USSR had tremendous potential. Suffice it to say that the only Russian aircraft carrier was built at the shipyard of the Black Sea shipyard in Nikolaev, of course, with the cooperation of enterprises from the entire USSR.
After the collapse of the USSR, shipbuilding enterprises in Ukraine, as well as in Russia, probably suffered the greatest damage in relation to other industries. Affected by the fact that the construction of ships is a long process that requires colossal investments and well-coordinated work of a huge number of subcontractors.
At the moment, the pinnacle of the military shipbuilding capabilities of the Ukrainian industry are Project 58150 "Gyurza" armored boats with a displacement of 38 tons.
In the short term, the Ukrainian shipbuilding industry is unlikely to be able to build anything more than a corvette-class ship. Huge problems will arise with its filling with modern means of reconnaissance, control, weapons. Most likely, this is possible only with the involvement of complexes and systems of Western production.
As in the case of helicopter engines, Ukraine has the engineering and industrial potential in the development of ship power plants. If this direction does not waste its potential and continues to develop, then it can be in demand both in the world market and in the joint creation of ships with any state.
Competencies in the field of building submarines in the military-industrial complex of Ukraine are completely absent, and there are no prospects for their appearance. Most likely, the best thing that shines for the armed forces of Ukraine is the purchase of non-nuclear submarines (NNS) of foreign production, if there is funding for this (in addition to the NNS themselves, you need to purchase weapons for them, train crews and support personnel, and provide maintenance).
Summing up, we can say that the military-industrial complex of Ukraine is "rather alive than dead", although it is in an unenviable state, and its individual capabilities may pose a threat to Russia and the breakaway republics (LPR and DPR).
It is extremely unfortunate that you have to write articles about the military-industrial complex of Ukraine in the context of a “hostile assessment”. In a situation where the fragments of the former superpower are practically in a state of internecine war, we can only hope that common sense will prevail and in the future we will be able to return to normal relations.
In the end, enemies should not forget the words of German Chancellor Otto von Bismarck:.
And the peoples and leaders of both our states should recall one more statement attributed to Bismarck.
