Russian and American military departments made sensational statements
The Russian Armed Forces will deploy four new divisions in response to the growing intensity of NATO exercises, said the Commander-in-Chief of the Ground Forces, Colonel-General Oleg Salyukov. The message was picked up in a matter of minutes by Russian and primarily foreign media. Before experts and commentators had time to discuss how this could affect the balance of power in Europe, the head of the Pentagon, Ashton Carter, made an equally sensational statement. The US-led anti-ISIS coalition is using ground forces.
It is noteworthy that if last year, after the news about the deployment of the Guards Tank Army in the Western Military District, the leadership of the Russian military department spoke about some abstract "possible threats" to the Russian Federation, avoiding mentioning NATO, then the current statement of Oleg Salyukov left no doubt: new divisions will restrain the North Atlantic alliance.
It is the same in the United States: a little over a month ago, on December 7, President Barack Obama, speaking to the nation, said: there can be no talk of any ground operation in Syria and Iraq.
NATO stop
The first information about the expected formation of divisions, now announced by Oleg Salyukov, appeared immediately after the headquarters of the 20th combined arms army returned to Voronezh in the spring of 2015 from the village of Mulino in the Nizhny Novgorod region, previously withdrawn there during the transition to a new look.
It was, in particular, about the possible appearance of new formations in the cities of Nizhny Novgorod and Boguchar.
On January 12 this year, at the first conference call, the head of the military department Sergei Shoigu said that one of the most important tasks facing the Armed Forces in 2016 is the formation of three divisions in the western direction. The minister emphasized that it is necessary to immediately provide them with a full-fledged infrastructure, equip their places of permanent residence. Nevertheless, he avoided mentioning "containment of NATO", leaving this statement to the commander-in-chief of the Ground Forces, Colonel-General Oleg Salyukov, who ten days later specified: we are talking about three divisions in the western direction and one in the central one. At the same time, it was emphasized that new formations would be formed on the basis of already existing brigades.
Let's try to figure it out and make assumptions about where and when the "anti-NATO" divisions will appear.
The first candidate is the 9th separate motorized rifle brigade, which almost simultaneously with the command of the 20th army "moved" from Nizhny to the city of Boguchar and the village of Valuyki. It should be noted that earlier plans were announced to form the 10th Guards Tank Division in the same settlements. So the one that is being created on the basis of the 9th Omsb Brigade will become either the 9th Motorized Rifle Brigade or the 10th Guards Tank Brigade. Another option is not excluded: 20 OA of the Western Military District will be replenished at the same time with 9 mechanized infantry and 10 guards. etc., the base for the formation of which will be the 1st Guards Tank Brigade, according to some information, currently being formed in the same Valuyki and Boguchar.
The second candidate is the 33rd separate motorized rifle brigade (mountain), currently torn apart between the village of Kadamovskiy near Novocherkassk in the Rostov region and Maikop. According to the initial plans, by the end of 2015, the brigade was supposed to move to the state of an ordinary motorized rifle and completely move to the Rostov region.
The third candidate is a separate motorized rifle brigade, which was planned to be formed in Yelnya, Smolensk region, on the territory of the military town of the former 144th Guards. Ministry of Internal Affairs, which was reported back in November 2014. The infrastructure, in particular housing, at one time built by the FRG after the withdrawal of the division from Germany in the early 90s, after the restoration work, makes it possible to place a full-blooded formation without any problems.
It is planned to deploy one division in the central direction. The 15th separate motorized rifle "peacekeeping" (Samara), 21st (Totskoe) and 23rd (Kryazh) guards motorized rifle brigades can be candidates. But still the priority due to the better infrastructure in the 21st Guards. omsbr, previously reorganized during the transition to a new look from the 27th Guards. mfd.
If we talk about the deadline for the completion of the formation of new parts, December 2016 looks the most optimal.
Why the decision was made to form divisions, and not new brigades, the leadership of the Ministry of Defense, alas, did not explain, confining themselves to the statement that the Ministry of Internal Affairs (TD) is better suited for the tasks facing them. It is also not entirely clear what the organizational and staff structure of the new formations will be, if, according to available data, even the 2nd Guards (Taman) Motorized Rifle and 4th Guards (Kantemirovskaya) divisions, which were previously reorganized from the brigades, have not yet been finally formed. On their basis, various research works on optimization of OSH continue.
It was easier with the Taliban
As in the case of the new divisions in the Russian army, plans to start a ground operation against the IS, banned in Russia, have been going on in the military-political leadership of the United States for a long time. Despite the widespread belief that the US military has withdrawn from Iraq, this is not the case. Since the end of 2014, units and subdivisions of the US Army have been sent there with the official goal of preparing Iraqi servicemen for hostilities against the Islamic State, which has launched a massive offensive into the interior of the country.
True, until the end of last year, the American contingent, consisting mainly of servicemen from the 82nd Airborne Division, represented a couple of hundred servicemen. But in November, the Pentagon announced its decision to deploy the 101st Air Assault Division in Iraq instead of the 82nd Airborne Division. According to the official publication of the American military department, the headquarters of the 101st division will be responsible for planning a ground operation in Iraq, and the contingent itself will consist of more than a thousand servicemen.
According to Commander of the 101st Airborne Division, Major General Gary Voleski, three months before the formal decision on deployment, the headquarters of the formation actively participated in the planning of Operation Inherent Resolve, a joint operation of the US-led "anti-ISIS" coalition - A. R.)
So the preparation for the ground operation in Iraq and Syria by the American military department began long ago. It is only unclear who else from the coalition members will send a ground contingent to the hot spot. The most powerful participants with large ground groupings: Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, are unlikely to send their military personnel to smash the Islamic State they support. Military support from Turkey is also unlikely. As in 2003, the entire burden will go to the armed forces of the United States and Great Britain, which will undoubtedly be supported by a couple of hundred fighters from Poland and, possibly, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia.
According to the announced plans of the Pentagon, the direct participation of American troops in ground battles is reduced to a minimum. The paratroopers of the 101st will continue to be primarily responsible for training Iraqis. At the same time, the leadership of the department declares: another task of the ground contingent will be to help local commanders on the battlefield, and the presence of the Americans will make it possible to maximize the possibilities of air support.
Another important task of the American military is to take over not only planning, but also the organization of the logistics of the Iraqi army leading the offensive against IS.
Currently, some overseas media have already announced the likely plans for a ground operation against IS. At the first stage, with the help of the Kurdish Peshmerga fighters, it is planned to encircle Mosul, tearing apart an important transport artery connecting it with Raqqa, the main and, in fact, the only communication route between the Syrian and Iraqi parts of the "Islamic State". This is believed to lead to the isolation of IS militants in Iraq.
After the fall of Mosul, turning to the west, the troops loyal to Baghdad must launch an offensive towards Raqqa and its oil fields, having lost which, IS will actually be left without funding.
One detail spoils a rather ambitious plan. Before it can reach Mosul, the Iraqi army will have to fight its way through the Tigris Valley, controlled by IS militants, who are well prepared for defense. Until now, all attempts to make any progress in this direction have ended in large losses in the absence of any results.
Another subtle point of the Pentagon's plan: Turkey must completely close the border in the south, preventing the support of the Islamic State militants from the outside, as well as their retreat under the attacks of Iraqi troops. As the American military themselves admit, this part of the strategy is the most difficult. But there are undoubtedly signs that Ankara will nevertheless meet halfway, at least in part.
In fact, the new American plan is a reincarnation of the operation in Afghanistan in 2001, when units of the Northern Alliance led by the Green Berets, with almost continuous air support, defeated Taliban units in a matter of weeks and expelled al-Qaeda militants.
It is difficult to say how quickly the attack on IS will begin and how long it will last. The readiness to attack the Iraqi military, even under the guidance of American instructors and almost constant air support promised by the Pentagon, raises many questions.
And the most important thing: unlike the Taliban, IS militants in 2001 were not only well-trained fighters, but above all an organized and controlled military machine, clearly superior in its capabilities to the Iraqi army.
