“Three rearmament programs have not been completed. The fourth will not be fulfilled either,”Anatoly Tsyganok, head of the Center for Military Forecasting of the Institute of Political and Military Analysis, said in an interview with the VZGLYAD newspaper regarding the statements of the country's military leadership on the supply of new equipment to the Armed Forces.
First Deputy Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Viktor Popovkin said on Thursday that the cost of the state armament program is over 19 trillion rubles. This money, according to him, will be primarily directed to the modernization of weapons. As the deputy minister promised, within the framework of the state program, the army and navy will receive 600 aircraft, 1000 helicopters and 100 warships.
At the same time, Popovkin stressed that the Ministry of Defense does not plan to purchase large quantities of foreign military equipment and weapons. According to him, such purchases are made only in order to eliminate the backlog of the domestic defense-industrial complex in a number of areas. According to the deputy minister, products will be purchased in those areas "where we have omissions." "This applies to drones, large-tonnage combat ships, in particular helicopter carriers, sniper weapons for special forces," Popovkin said.
The VZGLYAD newspaper appealed to the head of the Center for Military Forecasting of the Institute of Political and Military Analysis, Anatoly Tsyganok, with a request to comment on these statements.
Anatoly Dmitrievich, Popovkin named the amount of military equipment that should enter the troops by 2020 as part of the state armaments program. How do you rate these plans?
Anatoly Tsyganok: They are quite consistent with our military doctrine. In theory, this is exactly how much the Armed Forces should receive: 600 planes, 1000 helicopters, etc. If all this had happened, it would have been ideal. But the problem is that three rearmament programs have not been completed. The fourth will not be fulfilled either.
Why do you think so?
A. Ts.: I fully admit that the current armament program will not be fulfilled. Our Ministry of Defense says everything very correctly, but they do not take into account what the military-industrial complex can give them, and do not take into account the opinion of the Ministry of Finance.
According to Anatoly Tsygank, new equipment can begin to enter the troops only under a number of conditions.
Firstly, the money that is now being allocated for armaments is incomparable with those that were ten years ago. The plane, which cost, relatively speaking, one million, now costs six. Secondly, now Rosoboronexport has an advantage over the Ministry of Defense. The head of the Ministry of Regional Development, Viktor Basargin, recently published materials stating that from January to August last year, our Armed Forces received nothing: not a single tank, not a single aircraft. Because all the equipment was only exported.
In addition, when the president, prime minister and defense minister talk about rearmament, no one listens to the finance minister. And the Minister of Finance spoke on this score definitely at the end of last year: the fact is that the state budget for 2011-2012 has been approved. The increase can only happen in 2013. Incidentally, this concerns not only weapons, it also speaks of whether the officers will be able to receive more money than they currently have.
I recently appeared on a TV show. There were State Duma deputies from the Defense Committee, and they also wonder where the money will come from. The deputies themselves admit that there is no money.
Every time a rearmament program is announced, the defense ministers - Grachev, Ivanov, Serdyukov - say the same thing: "Now we are receiving weapons in single copies, but in five years we will receive enough."
You noted that the budget for the next two years has already been adopted. At the same time, Popovkin said that this year the troops will receive 100 combat helicopters …
A. Ts.: This is possible if the Ministry of Defense settles accounts with our military-industrial complex. According to last year's data, 50% of military-industrial complex enterprises are on their way. The Ministry of Defense does not pay even for those orders that were completed last year.
But what about 600 planes and 1000 helicopters by 2020?
A. Ts.: Our military-industrial complex is not capable of producing such a number of aircraft. Enterprises can produce no more than 200-230 aircraft per year. But our industry mainly fulfills export contracts.
Do you have the same opinion regarding the plans to build 100 ships for the Navy?
A. Ts.: I fully admit that the plans of the commander-in-chief were very good. But if we buy helicopter carriers at incredible prices and our shipbuilders produce these helicopter carriers at our shipyards, then we will only help out France.
Our production is intelligent production, we can produce. But there are many difficulties. If earlier the whole problem boiled down to a lack of money, now money may appear, but where to get designers and workers? The question is no longer so much about money as about personnel.
What, in your opinion, should be done so that your predictions do not come true and the state armament program is fulfilled?
A. Ts.: This is partly possible under a number of conditions. First, as already mentioned, if the Ministry of Defense will settle accounts with the military-industrial complex. Secondly, if strategically important enterprises are not liquidated. Finally, if the personnel of these enterprises are younger. Today the average age of designers and workers is 60–70 years.
Apparently, our population believes that we have a powerful army, but in reality all this is not so. It's too bad that no one listens to Russian experts. Two weeks ago, Pentagon specialists spoke about our army. In their opinion, the Russian army is able to deploy no more than two divisions and will hardly be able to participate in a local conflict. If you don't want to listen to our experts, let's maybe listen to the Pentagon experts.
The deputy minister named the cost of the program - 19 trillion rubles. Will there be such a sum in the state budget?
A. Ts.: I willingly believe in it, but we will have to wait until 2020. Again, according to the documents that have now been published, the three rearmament programs have ordered a long life.
The money will be allocated. But there is an interesting point. The point is that "business and the army are one." Last year, all repair enterprises - automotive equipment, weapons, aircraft and helicopters - were corporatized. The Air Force Commander-in-Chief admitted not so long ago that if earlier aircraft repairs cost 10 million rubles, now the cost of repairs in a joint-stock company is 100 million rubles. I don’t think the shareholders will sacrifice their money. So the funds will be allocated, but where will they go? I don't think they will go to the army. I think that the money will go into the pockets of the assistants to the Minister of Defense, who have corporatized these enterprises.
