Interesting news sounded on April 29 from the mouth of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu - he ordered to begin work on restoring production of the most modern Russian strategic bombers Tu-160, nicknamed "White Swans" in our country, and Blackjack in NATO. In this light, let us consider the reasons that led to such a decision, the current state of the strategic aviation of the Russian Federation and its prospects.
Bears and swans
Let us first turn to the current state of Russian strategic aviation. As we have already noted, our most modern and powerful aircraft is the Tu-160 supersonic bomber. The aircraft has been mass-produced since 1984, real production stopped in the early 90s, when funding ceased, but several more aircraft were produced using ready-made elements left over from Soviet times. The last Tu-160, which was named "Vitaly Kopylov", was produced at the Kazan Aviation Plant named after S. P. Gorbunov in 2008. According to some reports, there are 2 more unfinished aircraft of this type. In total, the Russian Air Force now has 16 White Swans, although 35 aircraft were produced. Some of the aircraft were lost in plane crashes, and a large number of "swans" were disgustingly destroyed in Ukraine in the late 1990s for American money - fortunately, some aircraft were saved by taking them on account of the gas debt. At the moment, all Tu-160s are planned to be upgraded to the level of Tu-160Ms, which will significantly increase their combat capabilities - now the aircraft will also be able to successfully use non-nuclear precision weapons. The main "highlight" should be the replacement of the Kh-55SM strategic cruise missiles (they carry a nuclear warhead) with the new X-101/102 (the first modification has a non-nuclear warhead, and the second - a nuclear one). The maximum launch range will increase from 3500 km to 5500 km, while achieving tremendous accuracy - the circular probable deflection of the rocket is equal to 10 meters. In total, the aircraft can carry up to 12 such cruise missiles.
The second pillar of the strategic aviation of the Russian Federation is the Tu-95 bomber, nicknamed the "Bear" in the West, and has been produced since 1955! Only the American strategic bomber B-52, which also continues to serve in the US Air Force, is the same age as our "old man". Although the machine is old, nevertheless, the Tu-95MS modification in service with the Russian Federation carries exactly the same cruise missiles as the Tu-160. With the Kh-55SM missile launch range of 3500 km, the supersonic speed or stealth inherent in newer vehicles is not so important - all the ammunition will have already been shot by the time the bomber detects enemy forces. Tu-95MS are undergoing the same modernization as Tu-160. By 2020, the Russian Air Force will have 20 Tu-95MSM capable of carrying up to 6 new Kh-101/102 strategic cruise missiles.
Advanced Long-Range Aviation Aviation Complex (PAK DA)
Earlier, plans were announced to begin serial production of the new PAK DA strategic bomber in the mid-2020s. The machine should first of all replace the outdated Tu-95, and later the Tu-160. In addition, the PAK DA is being considered a replacement for the Tu-22M3 long-range bomber. According to preliminary information, the aircraft is planned to be made according to the "flying wing" scheme (like the American B-2 Spirit) and subsonic. Speed will be sacrificed for the aircraft's stealth for radars. There is no other reliable information about PAK YES now.
Underfunding or missed deadlines?
The rather unexpected proposal to resume the production of Tu-160 bombers can most logically be explained either by the budget cuts for the development of the PAK DA, due to the economic crisis, or by too "Napoleonic" plans for it, announced initially. A combination of these two factors is also likely. The fact is that the Tu-95 gliders, unfortunately, do not get younger over time and, sooner or later, will become unusable. Staying with 16 Tu-160s against 66 American B-1s (to which they recently decided to return nuclear weapons) and 20 B-2 Spirit stealth bombers is not the best prospect. And in large local and regional conflicts, having a carrier of high-precision weapons capable of firing from great distances will definitely not hurt. The target number of Tu-160s produced should be such as to replace all Tu-95MSMs - which means at least 20 pieces. So, good or bad, we are witnessing the patching up of the holes that have arisen as a result of the complete decline in that part of the domestic aircraft industry, which is responsible for the construction of bomber aircraft. An important role in this decline was played by the fact that aircraft of this class are not supplied abroad - and arms exports have saved so many arms manufacturers in difficult years.
The cost and capabilities of the Russian aircraft industry
It is no secret that Tu-160 class vehicles have not been produced from scratch since the collapse of the USSR. Moreover, the possibility of producing the NK-32 engines necessary for the flight of the machine was lost. However, last year it was announced that OJSC Kuznetsov was restoring the production of NK-32, and by 2016 the first batch of engines should have been produced. The production of this power plant is necessary to maintain the existing Tu-160 in flight condition, in addition, an engine for the PAK DA will be created on its basis. As for the rest - it will definitely not be easy, but all the documentation is in place - the key point is investment in machines and other equipment required for production. The approximate cost of one Tu-160 in 1993 was $ 250 million - since then, of course, inflation has "worked", however, taking into account the use of more modern production technologies, we will consider this price relevant to this day. In this case, the cost of the program for the production of 20 new Tu-160Ms will be at least $ 5 billion, and possibly more.
The money is not small - but not too big, especially considering that the production of such a batch of aircraft will be quite extended in time. So it remains to wait and see if the production of strategic aviation in the Russian Federation will receive an impulse. The successes of recent years in the construction of tactical combat aviation inspire healthy optimism. In the meantime, we will all be able to watch our "Bears" and "Swans" at the Victory Parade on May 9th.
