The seventh decade since the invention of nuclear weapons is coming to an end. Over time, from a promising means of destruction, it turned into a full-fledged political instrument and, according to popular belief, more than once prevented and continues to prevent the Third World War. However, it was not only the political side of this type of weapons that changed. First of all, the ammunition itself and the means of their delivery were improved. Over the past decades, technology has made significant strides forward, which has led several times to revising the doctrines of the use of nuclear weapons. By now, military technologies, weapons and military equipment have reached the point at which it seems that once again it is necessary to adjust the views on the strategy of employment and the appearance of nuclear forces in the near future.
First of all, it is worth dwelling on the nuclear and thermonuclear warheads themselves. For a number of reasons, in the past few decades, this direction of weapons has mainly developed in the technological aspect. There have been no fundamental innovations in this area for a long time. At the same time, since the 70s of the last century, the military and nuclear designers have almost completely abandoned ultra-high-power nuclear charges. As calculations and tests showed, the same "Tsar Bomba" with a capacity of 50 megatons had very low combat prospects, and was also too complicated for full-fledged use in war conditions. Much simpler and more effective were the charges, whose power lies in the range of 50-1000 kt. As a matter of fact, such ammunition is currently the basis of the strategic weapons of the countries of the "nuclear club". It is unlikely that anything will change in the near future. On the contrary, a slight decrease in the power of charges is possible, caused by an increase in the accuracy of aiming the ammunition.
The drawing on the nose of the B-29 "Bockscar" bomber (Boeing B-29 Superfortress "Bockscar"), made after the atomic bombing of Nagasaki. It depicts the "route" from Salt Lake City to Nagasaki. In the state of Utah, the capital of which is Salt Lake City, in Wendover there was a training base of the 509th mixed group, which included the 393rd squadron, to which the aircraft was transferred before the flight to the Pacific Ocean. Serial number of the machine - 44-27297
Airplanes became the first carriers of nuclear weapons. In the mid-forties, only these technical means could ensure the delivery of nuclear weapons to the target. The first bombers with atomic charges on board were American B-29s, which dropped their cargo on Japanese cities. Since then, there has not been a single case of the military use of nuclear weapons, but it was after those bombings that no one had any doubts about the importance and necessity of new weapons. At the same time, the need arose to create new long-range or intercontinental bombers capable of delivering nuclear "cargo" to the enemy on the other side of the globe. Over time, new jet engines and new alloys, together with the latest avionics, helped to achieve sufficient range. Along with the development of the aviation component of airborne nuclear weapons, the missile component developed. Now it is possible to significantly increase the range of aircraft by equipping them with cruise missiles with nuclear warheads. In this form, the air part of the so-called.the nuclear triad has survived to this day.
In recent years, an opinion has been increasingly expressed about the fundamental obsolescence of the concept of a strategic nuclear-armed missile carrier. Indeed, the rapid development of means of detecting and destroying air targets - missiles and interceptor aircraft - casts doubt on the suitability of all the experience gained over decades. With a properly constructed echeloned defense, the missile carrier has little chance of reaching the launch line or returning home. This problem has long accompanied strategic missile carriers, but now it seems that its urgency is as high as never before. The main ways to increase the probability of a missile launch and hitting a target are considered to be high speed for the fastest possible breakthrough to the launch line, long range missiles, stealth for enemy radar stations, and jamming systems. Nevertheless, the creators of radars, fighters and anti-aircraft missiles are not sitting idly by either. As a result, the missile carrier's chances of completing a combat mission cannot be called high, especially if the enemy has time to deploy all interceptors. Thus, in some cases, strategic missile carriers can be almost completely useless in retaliation. Unless, of course, the blow is delivered to a country with a developed air defense system.
By the end of this year, a preliminary design of the Perspective Aviation Complex for Long-Range Aviation (PAK DA) will be prepared. Now there is almost no information about this project, apart from fragmentary data on the approximate time frame. At the same time, there are several assumptions that "grew" from some words of domestic military leaders. So, there was information that the PAK DA will be called upon to replace the Tu-22M3 and Tu-95MS in the army at the same time. It is difficult to say how such different equipment can be combined in one machine, but this has its own logic. If the Russian military agrees with the opinion about the weak prospects of strategic aviation, then the long-range missile carriers of the future may receive a new look. They will no longer have an intercontinental range, which must be compensated for by speed and stealth. An alternative to this path of development can be the further continuation of the ideology laid down in the Tu-160 missile carrier, with the improvement of on-board equipment, power plant, weapons, etc. In addition, it is believed that the combat potential of even current aircraft can grow due to radically new hypersonic missiles with a range of at least 3-3, 5 thousand kilometers. The creation of such ammunition is a difficult and lengthy process, but it will help strategic missile carriers once again increase their effectiveness, as well as their chances of completing the mission and surviving.
The second class of nuclear weapons delivery vehicles is intercontinental ballistic missiles. They appeared several years later than specialized bombers - the Soviet R-7 was put into service in 1960. Since then, several varieties of this technique have been created, differing from each other in design and launching means. The R-7 could only be launched from a large-sized complex launch complex, but later more compact and more advanced missiles with protected launch equipment appeared. Until a certain time, the best way to hide an intercontinental missile launcher from aircraft and reconnaissance satellites was considered to be a silo. However, over time, it became clear that such structures are quite complex and do not guarantee complete concealment. In addition, the heavy and thick protective cover of the mine and underground structures are far from always able to provide an adequate level of protection against an atomic explosion that occurred nearby. In order to avoid the destruction of missiles right at the position, over time, the development of mobile launch complexes began. As a result of these works, several mobile soil systems appeared, as well as a railway missile system. Such systems required much more effort from the enemy to track their movements, and also made it possible to maintain a certain combat power in the event of the loss of silo launchers.
Topol-M transport and launch container lid
Further development of strategic missile forces is possible along several paths, and at the same time. Despite the effectiveness of space reconnaissance means, mobile ground systems still remain sufficiently secretive and effective. However, you should not rely on them alone. At the disposal of our military there is a large number of silo launchers, which definitely should not be abandoned. A kind of confirmation of this is the availability of a version of the RT-2PM2 Topol-M missile, intended for a silo. At the same time, the most massive ICBM in the Russian Strategic Missile Forces is the RT-2PM Topol on a mobile launcher, of which there are no less than 160-170 units. Judging by the latest news on strategic weapons, in the near future the Ministry of Defense will purchase only one type of "ground" intercontinental missiles - the RS-24 Yars. At the moment, this ICBM with three warheads exists only in a mobile ground version. Perhaps, in the future, like Topol-M, the possibility of a mine-based operation will be provided.
The first launch of the RS-24 missile of the Yars complex from the Plesetsk test site, May 29, 2007 (photo by ITAR-TASS, https://www.tassphoto.com, installation and processing
In general, so far there are no signs of the abandonment of the silo launchers by the Russian military. For this reason, relevant questions arise regarding the protection of these objects from impact. The 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty tied the hands of our country in building a strategic missile defense, although it provided a simpler nuclear deterrence for the United States. After the US withdrawn from the treaty and the subsequent cancellation of it, the situation again became ambiguous: on the one hand, now we can calmly build our missile defense system throughout the country, but on the other hand, now we also need certain means of breaking through enemy defenses. According to numerous reports, existing in service, and even more so under development, intercontinental missiles have good capabilities to overcome enemy missile defenses. The promising rocket, the development of which was announced the other day, should have even better breakthrough characteristics. According to the commander of the Strategic Missile Forces, Colonel-General S. Karakayev, by 2018 his branch of the armed forces will receive a new rocket with liquid engines. The nuclear weapons delivery vehicle being developed now will replace the outdated heavy R-36M2 missiles, of which there are more than fifty in the troops. One of the main tasks facing the designers is to provide a reserve for the future in overcoming enemy missile defense.
It is worth noting that the annulment of the ABM Treaty also has useful aspects: in order to avoid missile losses right in the silos, we can deploy a defense system around them. Unfortunately, it will be far from easy to provide such protection, because a number of special means are required to guarantee the interception of warheads of intercontinental ballistic missiles. Suffice it to recall the Moscow anti-missile defense system, which includes the Don-2N radar station and several dozen anti-missile launchers. There is an opinion that in the future, to cover the positions of ICBMs from a nuclear missile attack, the S-400 and S-500 anti-aircraft missile systems can be used, but there is no official information on this yet, and the only argument in favor of the assumption concerns the 40N6E missile, allegedly capable of carrying out transatmospheric target interception. Such protection of launch complexes could significantly improve the ability to retaliate after an enemy attack.
A kind of development of the idea of a mobile launcher for ballistic missiles was the installation of appropriate equipment on submarines. In 1959, Soviet engineers conducted the world's first ballistic missile launch from a submarine. It is worth noting that the R-11FM liquid-propellant rocket had a range of only 150 kilometers, but it carried a warhead with a capacity of about 10 kilotons. The next years were spent on developing long-range missiles for submarines. In the spring of 1974, the D-9 complex for nuclear submarines of Project 667B "Murena" was adopted, which included the R-29 missile. The earliest version of the R-29 had a maximum range of 7,800 kilometers, making it the first domestic intercontinental ballistic missile for submarines. Over time, new modifications of the P-29 appeared, as well as independent developments. Currently, our country has 11 submarines carrying intercontinental missiles. Several units are under repair or have not yet been accepted into the Navy. The total number of simultaneously transported missiles is 96 units.
The main advantage of a nuclear submarine with missiles on board is the ability to sail almost at any time and not be seen by the enemy. True, there are many special means for detecting boats, but nevertheless, the search for an object with missiles on board in the world's oceans will take a lot of time and effort, and will also require the involvement of naval sailors, pilots and appropriate spacecraft. To avoid detection and subsequent attack, the submarine (regardless of the type of weapons on it) should make as little noise as possible and use some kind of emitting equipment (communications, etc.). With the right approach to camouflage, the sub becomes almost elusive. In addition, the range of an autonomous submerged campaign significantly increases the range of missiles. Improvement of submarine missile systems in the future will continue to go in two directions: new boats will receive more advanced onboard equipment and ballistic missiles. In the near future, strategic submarine missile carriers will only be armed with two main types of missiles - the R-29RM Sineva and its modifications (for boats of the 667 family), as well as the R-30 Bulava (for newer ones). Probably, the new missiles for domestic nuclear submarines will be a continuation of the ideologies laid down in Sinev and Bulava, although there is reason to doubt the continuation of the R-29RM line due to the great age of the entire R-29 family.
Launch of SLBM 3M30 "Bulava" with SSBN pr.941U "Dmitry Donskoy" October 7, 2010 (photo from the archive of Viktor29rus, https://forums.airbase.ru, published 2011-05-09)
It is quite obvious that Russia definitely needs nuclear forces, and the most modern ones at that. Despite a number of international agreements and statements by Western politicians, the doctrine of nuclear deterrence still serves to preserve peace and it is unlikely that anything will change in this matter in the coming years. Proceeding from this, it is necessary to modernize the domestic nuclear forces in a planned and timely manner. It is unlikely that it will be easy: due to the problems of the first years after the collapse of the USSR, a lot of time and finances were lost, and in addition, a lot of valuable personnel left the specialized enterprises. The restoration of the corresponding defense industry will take a long time. True, there are some reasons for optimism. International treaties limiting the number of nuclear weapons in countries help us in a sense - they eliminate the need to rapidly produce a large number of missiles, which we are not yet able to provide, and keep them on duty. At the same time, you shouldn't relax either.
Recently, when the topic of nuclear weapons, namely intercontinental missiles, has been raised, statements about the need for strategic missile defense systems have been especially relevant. The United States, together with European countries, is gradually creating its own network of radar stations and anti-missile launchers. In our country, work in this area has ended with the construction and commissioning of the Moscow missile defense system. According to available data, the new S-500 anti-aircraft missile systems may have certain capabilities to combat high-speed ballistic targets, but the arrival of these air defense systems in the troops will begin only in a few years. Perhaps their appearance will lead to significant changes in the air and anti-space defense of the country. Summing up, we can say that the current state of attack and defense means is at the level when it is necessary to pay special attention not only to nuclear warheads and their means of delivery, but also to means of preservation, such as covering airfields, sea and missile bases from the air, anti-missile defense of important objects, etc.
