People simply love to look into the future, it is not for nothing that fortune-tellers, mediums and horoscopes are so popular who can answer the question: "what is there" ?! There is even a special science - prognostics, which does the same thing, except that people who do it usually do not look into a crystal ball! In the past, various scientific and popular science journals have tried and tried to look beyond the "veil of time" to the best of their ability. I managed to find one interesting article on this topic in the Soviet magazine "Science and Technology" No. 16 for 1937. It is called "Aviation in Five Years". That is, its author, on the basis of the knowledge he had, tried to imagine what the 1942 aviation of the year would look like. He could not foresee that there would be a war, but … he wrote clearly with knowledge of the matter. Well, we know what happened in 1942 and we can compare his prophecies with reality, which is not only interesting, but also useful in many ways. Spelling and manner of presentation are fully preserved, so this is also a kind of "piece" of a long-gone history!
“Recently, the annual convention of the American Scientific and Technological Society of Mechanics took place. At this congress, the reports of the most prominent aircraft designers on the topic "Aviation in five years" were heard. These reports, built on the basis of current trends in the development of aviation, painted a really interesting and majestic picture of the conquest of the air in the near future. Here, not only the possible dimensions of the 1942 aircraft of the year were predicted, but also the design of aircraft engines, the economy of operation (as in the text - V. O.), the convenience for passengers, the control system and stability of the aircraft, the achievement of higher flight speeds, as well as the development of the most difficult transoceanic airways.
Modern aircraft are the product of a long history of engineering and a complex manufacturing process. It takes years to create an original, structurally new machine. Therefore, the predictions of American specialists placed below are not a prophecy, but rather an opening of the veil that carefully hides their work on the design of future aircraft.
Dwelling on the further development of spark-ignition aircraft engines, the speakers believe that, based on the current state of technology, the power of air-cooled engines can exceed 1500 hp. with. while reducing the specific gravity of the motor. In five years, a standard aircraft engine will weigh 0.4 kg per horse. strength. Even the modern 24-cylinder Napier engine developing 725 hp. with. at an altitude of 1,000 m, subject to an increase in the number of revolutions and an increase in the compression ratio, it could give a power of 1,400 liters. with. Soon, engines with small but numerous cylinders are to take a decisive victory over those with larger cylinders by developing more power for the same weight. So, for example, a thirty-liter engine can develop 1,800 hp with 60 cylinders. with. Naturally, an increase in engine power in the future will require a significant reduction in its specific weight, although, at the same time, the number and weight of auxiliary mechanisms will increase.
Future aircraft engines will have predominantly air cooling, which greatly simplifies the design of the entire power plant. On the other hand, air cooling with an increase in engine power leads to an increase in drag caused by increased air circulation in the cooling system. For this reason, for aircraft engines with a capacity of more than 1,000 liters. with. liquid cooling will be used, which has the advantage that the useful surface of the cooling system can be increased without restriction and at the same time without an increase in air resistance.
Specific fuel consumption should be reduced, mainly due to the use of fuel with a high octane number. Since the term "octane number" is relatively new and therefore unknown to our readers, we give a short explanation of it. The octane number is an abstract numerical value obtained by comparing the degree of detonation of the test fuel with a control fuel consisting of a mixture of iso-octane and heptane. Iso-octane (C8 H18) is characterized by low detonation and in determining the octane number is taken for detonation as 103%. Normal heptane (C7 H16) is characterized by high detonation and is taken as 0% when tested on an experimental motor. The octane number is the percentage of iso-octane in a given control iso-octane-heptane mixture.
At present, a small-scale production of 100 octane fuel has already been established - in a few years it will be as common in aviation as the now best fuel of 87 octane. Now in American laboratories, a fuel equivalent to 130 octane is being studied, which contains mixtures of gasoline and synthetic mixtures of purified industrial gases. This new type of fuel, which will be burned at the lowest possible compression ratio, but with maximum boost, will dramatically increase the power of the engine and, thus, reduce its specific gravity. The specific fuel consumption in an aircraft engine in five years will be less than 160 grams per liter. with. per hour instead of modern 200 g with a compression ratio of 6-6, 5.
The famous designer Sikorsky believes that even before 1950 it would be possible to build flying boats weighing 500 tons, designed for 1,000 passengers. But since the size of the aircraft is limited by the length of the route, the possibility of building giant air express trains for 1,000 passengers is highly questionable. In any case, in five years the weight of the largest aircraft will exceed 100 tons.
Already at the present time, a commercial load of 10% of the total weight of the aircraft has been practically reached on an air route with a length of over 7,000 km. Modern aircraft could be even more loaded if they had sufficient internal useful volume. In the future, very large aircraft will be built, which have better performance in relation to the total weight. With an increase in size, the drag of an aircraft changes slightly less than the square of its linear measurements, while the weight increases in a cube. As a result, for each unit of volume a large aircraft requires less engine power than a small one.
The types of aircraft that have now been determined will continue to exist in five years, however, the difference in their quality indicators will be greatly reduced. The size of the planes will increase so that flying boats will approach the land planes, which are still considered the most efficient. On transoceanic routes, it is flying boats that should be preferred, not only because of the possibility of landing on water, but, mainly, due to their larger internal volume.
Along with the increase in size, the operational speed of the aircraft will also increase (in the event of an accident with another engine during flight), as well as during flights in the stratosphere. Reaching the top speed of 850 km / h in five years is considered quite real. By the same date, the normal operating altitude of flights will reach 6500-8 500 m. The altitude of flights of 15000-18 000 m will be carried out only by military aviation and, possibly, for scientific purposes. An altitude of the order of 30,000 m can never be reached by modern types of aircraft heavier than air. The higher ceiling of the aircraft naturally allows for greater speed; in addition, it also improves aircraft navigation due to the relatively better weather in the stratosphere. Huge aircraft require air stability and control issues to be addressed. At present, manual control is facilitated to some extent by the aerodynamic balance of the aircraft's controllable surfaces. If the size of the aircraft increases sharply, then manual control will no longer be possible and hydraulic control will be required. Automatic control will also be not only useful in this case, but also essential.
With regard to the aerodynamics of the aircraft of the future, current trends are already talking about further improvements. Modern aircraft have the following main features; low wing, retractable landing gear with a streamlined base, all-metal construction, hidden frame, split flap, improved propellers and increased power density of the motors.
Further improvements will include variable pitch propellers, covering retractable landing gear holes, removing external antennas, improving stability and handling, and using exhaust gases (heat) for boost and heat mechanics.
The structural weight of aircraft tends to be lightened by improved materials, increased knowledge of the application of loads, better placement of structural elements and increased aircraft dimensions.
The wind load will remain the same as the aircraft size increases in the future as a percentage of the total weight. As the total weight increases, the airframe will become lighter, the machine seats will shrink relatively with increasing weight of the airframe, and the airframe itself will be relatively lighter with increasing size.
The installed equipment of the aircraft will remain the same as a percentage of the total weight. So, for example, for flying boats weighing 9 tons, it will subtract 6%, and for an aircraft of 45 tons - 4% of the plumb line. The weight of the hull of a flying boat will invariably decrease relative to 1% - 2% with an increase in total weight for every 4.5 tons.
Airship building in the near future will also make a big step forward. It can be said that the regular transoceanic service of rigid airships will be a stage already passed and will develop into even more important flights. If now aircraft are heavier than air, they are still only adapting for passenger flights across the ocean, then airships have long been operating on the Europe-America line. In the coming years, airships cannot be supplanted by airplanes - they are too valuable an addition to other existing types of transport. Further progress in airship construction will consist mainly in increasing the speed and convenience for passengers, while their size will not receive much growth. Now the designers are solving the interesting problem of the airship-aircraft carrier, which combines the advantages of aircraft lighter and heavier than air. High-speed aircraft of such an airship-aircraft carrier will start from the middle of the ocean for urgent delivery of mail, express cargo and passengers to the coast. Of course, there is no need to talk about the military value of aircraft carrier airships.
Airship-aircraft carrier from the cover of the American magazine "Modern Mechanics" No. 10, 1934
It is interesting to note that the American designers are quite confident in the implementation of their predicted five-year "plan" for the development of aviation. They argue that in the more distant future, the field of engineering art in the improvement of aircraft will not be narrowed in the least.
But this is already an aircraft carrier. Modern Mechanics, March 1938.
Summarizing the statements of American aviation specialists, we will list some of the main achievements that should characterize the aircraft of 1942.
Aircraft engines will have a lower specific weight and, in all likelihood, will not increase in linear dimensions. Air-cooled motors will retain their place, and liquid-cooled motors will be widely developed at higher powers. Diesel engines will be used on aircraft in very powerful units. They are, however, unable to supplant spark-ignited motors, which will continue to dominate aviation.
More efficient fuel will be introduced into practice, and its specific consumption will be significantly reduced. This reduction in fuel consumption is expected to reach 10% in five years.
The dimensions and quality indicators of aircraft of all types will continue to grow, while limiting this growth will be dictated only by the conditions of expediency and profitability, but not by technical difficulties. Apparently, the total weight of the aircraft should be expected to increase from two to three times compared with the largest currently existing. The speed will also increase, and it will be approximately 120-125% of the speeds already reached.
Soviet TB-3 with an I-16 fighter suspended under it.
Airplane navigation will require an auxiliary control system. Further expansion of the use of automatic control will make significant changes in the requirements for aircraft stability, and in the future, its lower automatic stability may be required.
Aviation development paths are largely common to many countries. It can even be said that aviation technology is international, since it is impossible even to imagine its isolated development in any one country. Turning to the prospects for the development of our Soviet aviation, it should be boldly asserted that its achievements in five years will be, in any case, no less remarkable than in America. The high Soviet aviation culture is a guarantee of that.
As proof of this statement, it is quite enough to refer to the modern indicators of our aviation. What will be the achievements of Soviet aircraft and its valiant pilots in 1942, if even now we already possess such wonderful aircraft as, for example, "ANT-25". But this machine was created back in 1934 - our experts consider it now somewhat outdated. For three years, technology has managed to make a big step forward.
Transarctic flights of the Heroes of the Soviet Union, vols. Chkalov, Baidukov, Belyakov, Gromov, pilots Yumashev and Danilin on the Moscow - North Pole - North America route have written a new remarkable page in the history of the development and achievements of world aviation. Once again, the power and high level of the Soviet aircraft industry was demonstrated. Soviet planes began to fly the farthest in the most difficult conditions - in the future they will fly higher and faster than anyone else."
Rice. A. Shepsa
