NATO is facing new threats and challenges, external and internal. At the same time, the structures and strategies of the organization no longer fully meet the current requirements. They are proposed to be updated taking into account the current situation and expected events, for which the NATO-2030 plan is being developed. The main provisions of this initiative have already been formed, and in the near future they can be approved and accepted for implementation.
New initiative
The decision to develop a package of measures to improve structures and strategies was taken in December 2019 at the NATO summit in London. In accordance with this decision, it was planned to gather several groups of specialists who were to study the current situation and determine the most likely scenarios for its development. Based on the collected data, it was necessary to develop plans to improve the Alliance for the next 10 years.
In April 2020, an "independent group" was formed under the secretary general of the organization responsible for the development of the NATO 2030 plan. It includes ten experienced politicians from different countries. Over the next few months, this council held dozens of different meetings and events with the participation of specialists. In November, the group released NATO 2030: United for a New Era.
The document describes current and anticipated challenges and threats, strengths and weaknesses of NATO, and ways to improve existing strategies and structures. In total, about 140 different measures and solutions are proposed.
Other advisory bodies are being set up. In November last year, a “group of young leaders” of 14 specialists was assembled. In early February, they presented their report, which was then discussed with the Secretary General of the Alliance. In parallel with this, events were held with the participation of students from a number of American and European universities, who in the future may become the new leaders of NATO.
The available reports will form the basis of a real plan for NATO-2030, which will be adopted for implementation in the near future. It is expected that the draft document will be considered, finalized and adopted at the next NATO summit, which will be held in June. Accordingly, real processes aimed at improving the organization will start in the coming months.
Circle of problems
The report of the "independent group" argued that the strategic environment in the world has changed significantly since 2010, when the previous NATO guidelines were adopted. The growth of the economic and military power of Russia and China is noted, as well as the desire of these countries to use the available opportunities to advance their interests.
The differences between the two countries in the context of the danger for NATO are indicated. Thus, Russia is considered more dangerous due to its geographic location, "aggressive policy", "hybrid methods", etc. China, in turn, poses no immediate military threat to the Euro-Atlantic region. At the same time, the risks associated with its technological development and methods of "soft power" should grow.
Threats of international terrorism, uncontrolled migration, the spread of illegal weapons, etc. still persist. Such problems are typical for specific regions, which are already receiving increased attention. To the old and well-known dangers, new ones are added, associated with modern and promising technologies.
NATO has also faced internal challenges in recent years. The member countries of the Alliance do not agree with each other on everything, various disagreements and problems are accumulating, etc. Thus, the French president spoke directly about the "death of the brain of NATO," while European countries are working on the possibility of creating their own military bloc. The United States and Turkey, which have a special role in the organization, fell out over the supply of Russian military equipment. New contradictions may arise that will worsen the overall situation in NATO.
General recommendations
Last year's report from the council to the secretary general suggests several key measures that are expected to help adapt NATO to new challenges. Thus, the general goals and objectives of the Alliance should remain the same - collective security, joint implementation of various activities, cooperation with neutral countries, etc. At the same time, it is proposed to officially introduce a new goal in the guiding documents in the form of countering the PRC and Russia, as well as other urgent threats.
A new military-analytical body with the participation of different countries should appear in the organization. His task will be to constantly analyze the situation and emerging situations in order to timely identify new threats. It is also proposed to form a specialized body that will monitor the actions of Russia and China.
The authors of the report call for more attention to the topic of defense spending. Alliance member countries must form their military budgets in accordance with approved standards - for many of them this means an increase in spending. In addition, countries need to increase their participation in international projects and events.
NATO should have its own advanced development agency similar to the American DARPA. It will ensure a more effective exchange of modern developments and technologies between the countries of the organization. At the same time, in order to reduce the known risks, it is necessary to reduce or exclude China's access to promising European developments.
NATO should continue mutually beneficial cooperation with non-aligned states. In doing so, special attention should be paid to Africa and the Middle East, as the regions with the most difficult situations, leading to serious risks.
Russia and NATO
The report "NATO 2030: United for a New Era" considers Russia as one of the main threats, and a separate paragraph is devoted to it. It proposes a number of measures for the interaction of the Alliance with the Russian side and countering its activities.
The Independent Group proposes to continue the dialogue with Russia, taking into account the interests and plans of NATO. It is necessary to preserve the existing Russia-NATO council and, possibly, to increase its role. It is necessary to increase the transparency of international relations and create a trusting atmosphere.
At the same time, aggressive actions and threats against members of the organization or third countries should be adequately assessed, incl. with one or another countermeasures. The Alliance must develop a common policy for dealing with such situations in order to prevent internal disagreements and the resulting problems.
NATO should adhere to the position of peaceful coexistence with Russia and not take unfriendly steps. At the same time, it is proposed to take into account the existing risks and maintain the necessary military capabilities, nuclear and conventional. The eastern flank of the Alliance must receive decent protection from possible encroachments. It is also necessary to support friendly non-aligned states.
Taking into account the current foreign policy of Russia, an additional measure of control is proposed. NATO needs a separate organization to oversee Russian-Chinese cooperation in the political, military and technological spheres. It will have to identify potentially dangerous actions of the two countries and issue recommendations for further action.
Plans for the future
The military-political situation in the world is constantly changing. New security threats appear regularly, and the existing ones are transformed in one way or another. Individual countries and international organizations have to take this into account in planning their policies and military development. NATO is no exception and is therefore taking steps to maintain the required qualities and capabilities over the next decade.
The NATO 2030 initiative has not yet been approved or accepted for implementation, but its main provisions are already clear. The Alliance wishes to maintain its position in the Euro-Atlantic region and in the world. He is preparing to respond to all the current threats, the list of which is expanding. At the same time, they recognize the inability of NATO in its current form to respond to all the challenges and therefore propose to create several new organizations and amend the governing documents.
The proposed countermeasures against Russia are of great interest. Our country is still considered one of the main threats and various methods of dealing with it are offered. At the same time, a rather peaceful strategy has been developed. It is envisaged to continue the dialogue and mutually beneficial cooperation, but it is proposed to respond to unfriendly and aggressive actions with appropriate measures.
NATO's new strategy draft will be considered in a few weeks and will probably be approved. One or another of its changes are possible, although it is not necessary to expect a cardinal revision. Thus, even now, based on the available documents, one can imagine what the North Atlantic Alliance will be doing in the next decade. In addition, it becomes clear that this organization is not going to fundamentally change its policy and will remain a potential enemy for us.
