The main contribution to ensuring the security of the Russian Federation is made by its strategic nuclear forces, which include strategic missile forces, long-range aviation and part of the submarine fleet. Like other components of the armed forces, the strategic nuclear forces undergo systematic modernization and build up their potential. In the new 2019, these processes will continue, as a result of which the Russian nuclear forces will retain their existing capabilities, as well as master advanced technology and weapons.
Currently, the implementation of the State Armaments Program for 2011-2020 is coming to an end. In addition, a new similar program was launched last year for the period up to 2025. The recently begun 2019 is "at the junction" of these two state programs and provides for the supply of various weapons, equipment and other materiel to all components of the armed forces, including the strategic nuclear forces.
New items for the Strategic Missile Forces
The strategic missile forces are undergoing the necessary modernization, and such processes are being carried out significantly ahead of the original plans. So, according to the results of the State Arms Program for 2011-2020, the share of new weapons in the Strategic Missile Forces was supposed to reach 70%. As it turned out, the military department and the defense industry have already fulfilled these plans, and now they face even more ambitious tasks.
On December 18, 2018, a meeting of the Expanded Collegium of the Ministry of Defense was held, dedicated to the development of the army and plans for the near future. During this event, the commander-in-chief of the Strategic Missile Forces, Colonel-General Sergei Karakaev, said that in 2018 the share of new weapons in his branch of service had reached the required 70%. Thanks to this, plans for 2019 were adjusted: during this period, the share of new products should be further increased and brought to 76%. The plans for 2020 have not yet been specified, but it is obvious that the plans of the current State program in the context of the Strategic Missile Forces have already been fully implemented. Now we are talking about overfulfilling them and creating a certain reserve for the future.
It should be noted that the development of the Strategic Missile Forces is carried out not only within the framework of the State Armament Programs. There is also a plan for the construction and development of the Strategic Missile Forces for 2016-2021. This document provides for the construction of new facilities and the modernization of existing ones, the supply of advanced equipment, as well as the purchase of modern weapons.
News and official reports of recent months allow us to imagine exactly how the missile forces will increase the share of new weapons by the declared 6%. First of all, in 2019, these processes will be carried out through the supply of already known and mastered weapons. To date, the Strategic Missile Forces has about 100-110 intercontinental ballistic missiles RS-24 "Yars" in silo and mobile launchers. During 2019, their number will be increased.
During a meeting of the Collegium of the Ministry of Defense, the head of the military department, General of the Army Sergei Shoigu, said that 31 silo launchers would take over duty in 2019. These structures are being built for the Yars and Avangard complexes. The exact number of missiles planned to be put on duty in the coming year, as well as the proportions of the two complexes in the supply were not named.
However, the Russian defense industry has shown its ability in the mass production of Yars, which gives some grounds for assessments. Thus, the Votkinskiy Zavod enterprise has proven in practice its ability to produce at least 20 RS-24 missiles annually. If there is a corresponding order, the plant will be able to transfer a significant number of such ICBMs to the Strategic Missile Forces for deployment or storage.
In March last year, the Russian leadership first spoke about the Avangard missile system developed for the Strategic Missile Forces. Already in November, it became known that soon this complex would be ready to be put on alert. At the end of December, another successful test launch of Avangard took place, after which the country's leadership confirmed the already announced plans for 2019.
The December launch was performed from the Dombarovskiy position area. According to recent news, in 2019 the newest Avangards will begin their service there. Until the end of the year, the first regiment armed with such complexes will take over the duty. The Avangard product has already been officially put into service, and NPO Mashinostroyenia has begun production of serial samples for the transfer of the Strategic Missile Forces.
In early January, the Ministry of Defense announced its plans to conduct training activities. During 2019, the Strategic Missile Forces will conduct more than 200 command post, tactical and special exercises. In each period of training in the coming year, it is planned to work out the modes of combat duty at the highest degrees of readiness. Over 40 missile regiments, as well as security and support units, will be involved in such exercises and drills.
Marine component
The Russian shipbuilding industry, represented by the Sevmash enterprise and related organizations, continues to build new submarines - Project 955A Borey strategic missile submarines designed to upgrade the naval component of strategic nuclear forces. For a number of reasons, recent years have been poor in news about the Borei, but new important events are expected in the very near future.
In November 2017, another submarine of the Borey type, K-549 "Prince Vladimir", was withdrawn from the Sevmash boathouse. It is now in factory trials, which are nearing completion. Over the next few months, the K-549 SSBN will pass all the necessary checks, after which it will be transferred to the navy. The exact date of delivery of the ship has not yet been announced.
Since 2014, the construction of the Knyaz Oleg boat has been underway. While it remains on the stocks of "Sevmash", but in the foreseeable future it is planned to complete the construction and subsequent launch. According to known plans, "Prince Oleg" may enter the service at the end of 2019. However, for now, one should not exclude the possibility of the appearance of certain difficulties, due to which the construction and testing will be completed with some delay.
The newest SSBNs of the project 955 / 955A are armed with ballistic missiles of the R-30 "Bulava" submarines. There is no information on the serial production of such weapons and plans for its release in the near future in open sources. It is known that each Borei simultaneously carries 16 Bulava missiles in silo launchers. It follows from this that for the timely arming of new submarines this year it is necessary to deliver at least 16 missiles.
Unfortunately, the naval component of the Russian strategic nuclear forces is awaiting not only replenishment. Over the past years, the decommissioning of several existing submarines has been discussed. So, in April last year, the Russian media revealed the current plans of the command of the navy, providing for the termination of the service of several submarine cruisers. By 2020, it is planned to decommission the fleet and write off the remaining SSBNs of Project 667BDR "Kalmar", while continuing to serve in the Pacific Fleet. After that, the strategic nuclear forces will be represented in the Pacific Ocean only by submarines of the Borei project.
As a reminder, out of 14 submarines of Project 667BDR, only 2 survived. 11 submarines were decommissioned and disposed of in the past, another was rebuilt according to special project 09786. Until recently, only two such boats remained in service - K-433 "St. George the Victorious" and K -44 "Ryazan". Recently it became known that the SSBN K-433 was withdrawn to the reserve, and after that only the K-44 continues to serve, which will soon also be withdrawn from the combat composition of the fleet. The two remaining submarines are planned to be written off due to their great age and resource depletion. This year marks 39 and 37 years since the beginning of the services of "St. George the Victorious" and "Ryazan", respectively.
Aerospace Forces
Long-range aviation in the strategic nuclear forces is represented by Tu-95MS and Tu-160 missile bombers. The Russian armed forces currently have a total of several dozen of these types of aircraft. The current plans of the Ministry of Defense and the command of the Aerospace Forces provide for the continuation of the modernization of combat equipment. At the same time, the industry must establish the construction of completely new missile carriers, which in the near future will have to supplement the available vehicles.
A lot of work and several important events are planned for 2019 in the context of the modernization of long-range aviation. Last year, the Kazan Aviation Plant named after V. I. S. P. Gorbunova started assembling the first modernized Tu-160M missile carrier. In the third quarter of this year, this aircraft will be rolled out from the assembly shop with its subsequent transfer to the flight test station. The first messages of this kind appeared in the middle of last year and were confirmed a few days ago. The first flight of the newest Tu-160M should take place before the end of 2019. Due to the total number of tests, the transfer of the aircraft to the customer is scheduled only for 2021.
At the same time, the construction of the first Tu-160M2 missile carrier, the lead vehicle of a completely new series, is underway in Kazan. The appearance of this aircraft will become the most important event in the history of domestic long-range aviation, but this time the delivery of the finished aircraft will take place after 2019.
The command also plans to modernize Tu-95MS aircraft according to the new Tu-95MSM project. The contract for the execution of similar work on the first missile carrier was signed last summer. The order was received by the Taganrog Aviation Scientific and Technical Complex named after V. I. G. M. Beriev. Now the company is carrying out repairs and modernization of the first aircraft, and it will take several more months to complete these works. The Tu-95MSM will make its first flight at the end of this year.
In the future, the first Tu-95MSM will have to go through the entire test cycle, after which the customer will make the final decision. At the beginning of the next decade, a contract will have to appear, according to which the industry will begin a full-scale modernization of the Tu-95MS from combat units.
In 2019, we should expect the continuation of deliveries of strategic weapons for missile-carrying aircraft of long-range aviation. First of all, new Kh-101 air-launched cruise missiles will be transferred to the arsenals. According to recent reports, in the recent past, these products underwent modernization, which took into account the experience of their combat use during the operation in Syria. In addition, in November, an aviation complex in the form of a Tu-160M bomber and X-101 missiles was tested. The upgraded aircraft fired 12 missiles against conventional targets at a remote range in the Arctic Circle.
General trends
The Russian Ministry of Defense, with the active assistance of the military-industrial complex, continues to implement two State Armament Programs at once, as well as a number of plans affecting the development of individual combat arms. All these programs and projects have a great impact on the state of the strategic nuclear forces, which manage to constantly increase their potential through the renewal of materiel and weapons, as well as through regular training and combat activities.
Considering the plans of the military department for the beginning of 2019, one can see the main trends associated with the development of strategic nuclear forces as a whole and their individual components. The development of all three components of the strategic nuclear forces is being carried out in parallel and at an appropriate pace. However, the example of 2019 shows that the results of modernization appear at different times and in different quantities. However, such a difference should not have a noticeable impact on the strategic security of the country as a whole.
The most serious update this year awaits the Strategic Missile Forces. They will have to master serial products of already known types, as well as fundamentally new weapons. After a break of several years, the navy will again receive new strategic missile submarines capable of conducting combat duty. The aerospace forces, represented by long-range aviation, have to operate only the available equipment so far. New samples of strategic bombers are still at the stage of development work and will only be able to reach the troops in the distant future.
Thus, at present, the most attention is paid to the Strategic Missile Forces, which remain the basis of the strategic nuclear forces and must solve the assigned tasks with the help of a wide range of weapons, both well-mastered and fundamentally new. The situation with the rearmament of the naval submarine forces is gradually beginning to improve, and the renewal of long-range aviation is still a matter of the future. Nevertheless, these structures will not remain without new products and will certainly increase their combat potential.
In general, the recently begun 2019 turns out to be a very interesting period in the history of the Russian strategic nuclear forces. During the year, it will be possible to observe the simultaneous creation of new products and the modernization of existing ones, as well as the operation of known systems and the development of recently appeared ones. As a result, the strategic nuclear forces of the Russian Federation will preserve and increase their potential, and will also remain a reliable means of ensuring national security.
