While the camera of the Russian-European spacecraft "ExoMars" sent the first image of the Red Planet to Earth, the United States is working on sending a full-fledged manned expedition to Mars. Why the Americans need this, how much will such a project cost and whether Russia is planning to participate in it are questions that require an answer.
The task of a manned flyby of Mars was set by President Barack Obama back in 2010. Then he drew the following action plan in front of NASA: by 2025, make a manned flight to an asteroid close to Earth, in the mid-2030s - to Mars, after which a landing mission will follow. So far, we can say that NASA as a whole fits into the planned timeline. At the same time, the agency plans not just a flyby of the Red Planet, but a visit to its natural satellite Phobos.
To date, the agency has identified six basic elements required for a flight to Mars, including landing. These are the SLS heavy carrier, the Orion spacecraft, the Transheb living module (for flight along the Earth-Mars-Earth route), a lander, a take-off stage and a solar-electric propulsion system (SEP). According to one of the preliminary estimates, 15 to 20 tons of cargo and equipment will need to be delivered to the surface of the Red Planet to ensure the first landing of people on its surface. However, NASA representatives voiced the figure of 30 tons or more, taking into account the fact that the weight of the projected take-off stage alone will be 18 tons, and the weight of the lander will be at least 20 tons. To send these elements into space, at least 6 launches of a heavy / super-heavy carrier SLS with a carrying capacity of 70 to 130 tons will be required. To save time and money for the development and production of this "heavy truck" NASA used technology and equipment left over from shuttles, including engines, fuel tank and solid propellant boosters "shuttles".
The elements of the Martian complex will gather in a bundle not in near-earth orbit, but at the Lagrange point L-2. It is located one and a half million kilometers from the Earth, behind the far side of the Moon, at 61,500. This point is considered an ideal place for the construction of space complexes, because it balances the gravitational forces of the Earth and the Sun, which provides a "construction site" that is practically not subject to external gravitational impact. NASA calls L-2 nothing more than a "test site", thereby emphasizing that not only assembly, but also testing of Martian technology will be carried out there.
The American and international media have repeatedly, including with reference to some sources in NASA, mentioned the possibility of the return of the Americans to the moon in preparation for the Martian expedition. However, this is not a question now. As one of the leading American experts in the field of space policy, John Logsdon, told the VZGLYAD newspaper, the creation of a lunar lander is not included in NASA's plans. It is not excluded, however, that the European Space Agency (ESA) will decide on the flight to the moon. And in the event that ESA builds a lander, the United States can participate in the European lunar project, possibly providing SLS to deliver this module to a natural satellite of the Earth.
Three steps to Mars
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NASA called its first step "leaning on the Earth." It includes practicing the necessary operations and accumulating the required experience in low-earth orbit using the ISS. In addition, as part of this step, the agency is developing ways and methods of using improvised Martian resources (ISRU) to obtain fuel and other necessary materials. The activity is quite rewarding when you consider that the 18-ton takeoff stage will require 33 tons of fuel, and NASA intends to extract it from the carbon dioxide and water available on the Red Planet.
The second step is called the "test site", which, as already noted, is located at point L-2. With the help of the automatic apparatus, it is planned to capture a nearby asteroid, which will be transferred to this point, where the Orion spacecraft crew examines it.
The third step was called "independent from the Earth." We are already talking about the direct study and development of the Red Planet. It includes life on Mars, the intensive use of Martian resources, and the regular transmission of scientific information to Earth using advanced communication systems.
It is worth dwelling on the role of "Orion" in more detail. Despite the fact that outwardly it resembles an enlarged version of the classic disposable Apollo-class spacecraft (sometimes the Orion is jokingly called “Apollo on steroids”), the new “taxi” for NASA astronauts will be reusable - it is planned to use the same descent vehicle ship up to ten times. At the same time "Orion" will be distinguished by increased "passenger capacity" and will be able to take on board up to 7 crew members.
But this is not the main feature of Orion. According to Charles Precott, vice president of Orbital ATK, which develops five-segment solid-fuel boosters for the SLS, the ship will become part of the interplanetary Martian complex. Its systems, including a life support system (coolant) and protection against radiation, will be integrated into this complex to increase its reliability.
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The estimated resource of "Orion" is not less than 1000 days. It is designed to enter the Earth's atmosphere at higher speeds, such as when returning from L-2 or Mars. In addition, the ship will become an additional shelter for the crew in case something goes wrong. Precott gave the example of Apollo 13, whose crew, after the explosion of the oxygen tank in the command module during the flight to the Moon, was saved largely thanks to the coolant and propulsion system of the lunar lander. This module, although it was not designed to operate during the flight along the Earth-Moon-Earth route, in a critical situation successfully performed functions unusual for it.
Orion's first test flight took place automatically in December 2014, when it was launched from the Delta IV Heavy launch vehicle. The next one is scheduled for September 2018, Orion (still without a crew) will fly in circumlunar orbit with the help of the SLS carrier, for which, by the way, this will be the first launch. And the first manned flight of the spacecraft - directly to the Moon - is scheduled for 2021–2023.
Fears and reality
Crews flying in low Earth orbit are protected from cosmic radiation by the Earth's magnetic field. Astronauts heading for the Moon and Mars in particular are deprived of this protection. However, according to Scientific American, citing data from the Curiosity rover, the danger of radiation from deep space is not so great as to become an obstacle to the implementation of the Martian expedition. So, astronauts who spend 180 days to get to Mars, the same amount to return from it, and also spend 500 days on the surface of the Red Planet, will receive a total dose of radiation in the region of 1.01 sievert. According to ESA standards, an astronaut should not receive more than one sievert during all his flights. This dose, according to doctors, increases the risk of cancer by 5%. NASA has stricter standards: the risk of cancer of an astronaut for the entire period of his professional activity should not exceed 3%. However, according to Don Hassler, a member of the Curiosity research team, 5% is "a perfectly acceptable figure."
Speaking at the People to Mars (H2M) conference in Washington this May, Scott Hubbard, formerly responsible for NASA's Mars projects and now a professor at Stanford University, quoted NASA Chief Physician Richard Williams as saying that “there are currently no crew health hazards that would prevent a manned mission to Mars. Williams admits there is some health risk to astronauts, but NASA is willing to accept it, especially as the agency is constantly developing new ways to mitigate it. For example, NASA is currently experimenting with a material made from hydrogenated boron nitride nanotubes (BNNT) that shows very promising anti-radiation properties.
However, according to Andy Weier, the author of the book "The Martian", on the basis of which the film of the same name was made, his hero would certainly get cancer during his stay on the surface of the Red Planet. Who is closer to the truth - scientists or science fiction writer, time will tell.
When, for how much and with whom
NASA is currently adhering to the following schedule for manned exploration and exploration of Mars. From 2021 to 2025, at least five manned missions to circumlunar space are planned, including the "capture" and study of the asteroid. In 2033, astronauts are expected to reach Phobos, and in 2039, they are expected to step onto the surface of Mars for the first time. A second expedition will land on Mars in 2043.
To support the manned "assault" of the Red Planet from 2018 to 2046, at least 41 SLS-type carriers will have to be launched. It is not excluded that to this it will be necessary to add launches of already operated delivery vehicles of the Delta-4 and Atlas-5 types (if the latter receives American engines instead of Russian ones and is still in operation). They will be used mainly for launching automatic vehicles to Mars and Mars, which will be entrusted with the function of "miners" of scientific information to help manned expeditions.
Of course, the number of carriers and their types can vary depending on the changes made to the configuration of the Martian manned missions. There is an option in which only 32 SLS-type carriers will be required (not counting five for the aforementioned circumlunar expeditions): ten to support a manned mission to Phobos, twelve for the first landing of astronauts on Mars, and ten more for the second.
The question is: how much will all this cost and will the United States "pull" such expenses alone? Sending astronauts to Mars will cost only a fraction of what was spent on the development and production of the sixth-generation F-35 fighter jet, according to a group of experts from NASA, as well as representatives of industry and academia in the United States. management of the United States, ultimately the F-35 program may cost a trillion dollars) and will not exceed $ 100 billion. This is the same as the US has so far spent on the ISS program. By 2024, the station's flight will be completed, and NASA will no longer spend nearly $ 4 billion annually on its operation. Thus, in the ten years separating the end of the station's orbiting around the Earth and the beginning of the mission to Phobos, the amount of saved funds will amount to about $ 40 billion, and the United States will have to find an additional $ 60 billion to implement its Martian plans.
Speaking about the cost of the Mars mission, experts emphasize that it can be reduced even more if international participants are involved in the project. The obvious question is: is Russia among them, which is currently one of the largest partners of the United States in the space field and has a serious space potential (especially in the field of manned flights)? But if the United States has such plans for Russia, they are kept secret for the time being.
At the end of May this year, the Space News newspaper outlined the views of NASA head Charles Bolden on the future of international cooperation in space. He spoke about the importance of interaction outside the atmosphere with Europe, Japan and China. With regards to the PRC, Bolden mentioned that he was going to visit it at the end of the summer, stressing that sooner or later the United States and China will definitely begin to closely cooperate in the field of space. The list of potential space partners even includes countries such as Israel, Jordan and the United Arab Emirates. But Bolden did not say a word about Russia. Maybe there was simply no reason for this, but another explanation is possible: sharply aggravated relations between Moscow and Washington, as well as Russia's lack of technology and technology for deep space (for the sake of gaining access to them, the United States could set aside general political differences) do not contribute to America's interest in continuing its partnership with our country after the end of the ISS flight.
It remains to add that, in addition to the US state Mars program, there is also a private one, which SpaceX intends to implement. The head of this company, Elon Musk, announced plans to land the Dragon ship on the surface of the Red Planet in 2018, and send people there in 2026.
Speaking at the People to Mars conference and talking about why America is striving for the Red Planet, Charles Precott said: “Jumps in space only happen when the strategic interests of the country are behind them. We are going to Mars because we want to show the world our ability to do something that no one has ever done before, to demonstrate our space leadership and guarantee our access to the global space market, which reaches $ 330 billion in annual revenue. As you can see, the explanation is quite simple. And the question involuntarily arises: does Russia really have no such strategic interests that can be realized with the help of a project costing two Sochi Olympics?
