In more than three years of confrontation in the Donbass theater of military operations, the degree of unpredictability of the future actions of Ukrainian military formations has practically reached its climax. If, for example, in the summer-autumn period of 2014, it was relatively easy to predict the operational and tactical plans of the Ukrainian armored and artillery units due to the fact that not so many military units of the Armed Forces of Novorossia and the Armed Forces of Ukraine operated on both sides of the contact line, and on the western At the borders of the Donetsk-Makeyevka and Gorlovka-Yenakiivka agglomerations, there were no powerful and densely located fortified areas of the NM DNR, but today the situation has changed in a radically opposite direction. The successful closure and liquidation of the "Debaltsevo boiler", as well as the deployment of powerful strongholds of the 1st Army Corps of the Ministry of Defense of the DPR in the Kominternovo and Vodyanoye areas ("Daring" height) on the Novoazov operational direction finally turned for the 53rd separate mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (OMBR) and the 36th Separate Marine Brigade (36th Marine Brigade) of the Armed Forces of Ukraine into a powerful deterrent against the backdrop of plans to conduct local offensive operations on the southern and northern fronts of Novorossiya.
The number of recovered artillery and armored trophy weapons captured from Ukrainian formations in tactical boilers, and also quite rightly due to the presence of the "North Wind" in response to unofficial deliveries of lethal weapons from the United States and Western Europe, in the corps of the People's Militia of the republics by 2017 passed for the thousandth mark, which, to the great happiness, allowed the armies of the republics to give a worthy counter-battery response to the shelling of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as to suppress in advance most attempts by tank and infantry attacks on settlements located 3-7 km from the contact line. Attempts to carry out such local offensive operations by the forces of one or two tank companies and infantry platoons, we have seen more than once in relation to the villages of Kominternovo (Novoazovskoe ON), Belaya Kamenka (Telmanovskoe ON), Verkhnetoretskoe (Donetsk operational directions), as well as Gladosovo and Travnevoe. But if the latter, staying in the "gray zone", were taken under the control of Ukrainian militants in just a few hours due to the absence of anti-tankmen in the settlements and the required number of snipers of the NM DNR, then such actions in relation to Kominternovo and Verkhnetoretsky would result in huge losses for Ukrainian militants as in technology, and in personnel. Several similar actions by the Azov regiment, the nationalist formations of the Right Sector and the 36th Marine Brigade were suppressed in the 15th and 16th years.
Nevertheless, there is absolutely no need to relax in the current operational-tactical situation. Washington's military-political defeat in the Syrian theater of military operations, where the "Syrian Democratic Forces" (represented by the Kurdish YPJ / YPG formations) ultimately failed to overcome the Euphrates and take control of the most important highways in the southern part of the Deir ez-Zor province, in As a result, it led to a shift in the geostrategic "focus" of the Pentagon from the Middle East to the Donbass. But this time, after the fiasco of pro-American forces along the Euphrates, the political positions of the administration of the head of the White House became many times more precarious, due to which the "hawks" in Congress and the State Department were able to finally "spread their wings", having received even more instruments of political pressure on Donald Trump, whose rating dropped to 37% by December 2017.
The results were not long in coming: just three weeks of December was enough for Trump to approve the supply of "independent" American lethal weapons. The first package of military assistance worth $ 41.5 million, providing for the transfer of large-caliber 12.7 mm Barrett M82A1 rifles to Kiev, was approved by the US Department of State on December 21, 2017. The second, most widely discussed in the "Square" package, was sanctioned on December 23, and provides for the delivery of 35 transport-launch "tubes" of the FGM-148 "Javelin" complex, as well as 210 anti-tank guided missiles for them. Its cost is approaching $ 47 million. A few days earlier, the Government of Canada at the legislative level ratified a document providing for the inclusion of Ukraine in the list of NATO allies that can receive Canadian lethal weapons through NATO military sales. Naturally, this means only one thing: Kiev will be able to unofficially receive practically all types of anti-tank and artillery American weapons, using Ottawa as a transit transshipment point, not burdened with responsibility to the "Minsk" or "Norman" formats.
And, judging by what is happening, this scheme begins to be successfully tested in practice. So, the General Staff of the Armed Forces tried to go for a trick, stating on January 9, 2018 that instead of the Javelin ATGM, the junta's anti-tank crews will receive the TOW-2A / B complexes. This caused a huge resonance in the circles of the Ukrainian paramilitary formations, because these complexes (except for the "TOW-2B Aero") are equipped with an outdated microwire control system, and also do not allow to work on the "let-and-forget" principle with the defeat of targets from the upper hemisphere (in the dive mode). Nevertheless, the plot turned out to be quite twisted. After all, already on January 17, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine V. Muzhenko trumpeted with might and main that Ukrainian formations were preparing for the adoption of the FGM-148 "Javelin", while operators for using these complexes would be trained abroad, obviously, it was about countries Javelin operators (Lithuania, USA, France, Great Britain, etc.). He also said that the launch tubes and anti-tank guided missiles will arrive at the “Square” in 2-6 months. A day later, Poroshenko announced the transfer of "Darts" to Ukrainian military formations, emphasizing that this military aid package would be fully funded by the US defense department; everything in the favorite “begging” style of the Square. Nevertheless, laughter is laughter, and there is a beginning of a new phase of Western military-technical support of the current Ukrainian regime, where the militarization of the junta is transferred from an unofficial form to a completely legal field. From that moment on, numerous types of small arms and anti-tank weapons will simply pour into Ukraine officially, while various types of artillery weapons, including adjustable artillery shells, mortar mines, and maybe something more serious, will reach the Ukrainian formations through the "Canadian military ".
"For a snack" on January 18, with 280 votes of people's deputies, the Verkhovna Rada nevertheless adopted the treacherous and to the core criminal bill No. 7163 "On the reintegration of Donbass", the "critical" amendments of which, in fact, will finally eliminate any obligations of Kiev to the "Normandy Four" and the "Minsk format", unleashing the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to continue the punitive operation against Donetsk and Lugansk. Boris Gryzlov, Russia's plenipotentiary in the Trilateral Contact Group on resolving the situation in Donbass, reacted most revealingly to the situation with the ratification of the above draft law, calling on the LDNR to “prepare for defense”. It is not at all difficult to understand that the recognition of the Russian side as the "aggressor", in parallel with the official activation of the Western military trade organization, removes from Moscow any restrictions on the mirror support of the republics. At the same time, it can be provided both directly and through South Ossetia or Abkhazia (mirrored to the "Canadian military organization").
It is not difficult to assume that this development of the situation will soon lead to another escalation scenario in Donbass, but not at all on the scale that we have observed over the past year. An extremely important point here is the awareness of the Nazi "elite" in Kiev that the current US regime is in an extremely difficult political situation after blocking the SDF within only the eastern bank of the Euphrates, as well as after the encirclement of the US ILC military infrastructure at the At-Tanf base by the Syrian Arab Army, which finally fetters Washington hand and foot in any attempt to pull the blanket over to its side regarding the rapid expansion of the 55-kilometer security zone by the forces of the New Syrian Army or the FSA. Under the current circumstances, the only root of Washington's face is the support of Kiev in the Donbass, and not the usual one (with RQ-4A strategic drones performing optical and radio technical reconnaissance near Mariupol), but broad-spectrum, with the participation of the Special Operations Forces, the transfer of high-precision weapons, etc. … All this in the square has long been "probed", and therefore will continue destructive actions to further exacerbate.
It is very important here to analyze the possible operational directions in which the junta may attempt to conduct an offensive operation. Immediately, we note that there can be no talk of any general offensive, about which numerous alarmists and other military "experts" of Runet love to discuss in the comments, because the defense of the Novo-Azov, Donetsk, Gorlovka and Debaltsevo directions is today at an unprecedented level as in both in terms of local anti-tank "barriers" and in terms of artillery "kulaks", which means that an attempt to storm them by the junta will end with the sinking of Ukrainian formations in battles near the line of contact, followed by their "softening" and the transition of NM DNR units to a counteroffensive. The fact is that on the western bank of Kalmius, the Armed Forces of Ukraine do not have a single full-fledged fortified area, except for Mariupol, Volnovakha and the "Kurakhovsky knot". Even if Ukrainian units are able to temporarily break through the front line in the above directions, they will not be able to gain a foothold in new positions, since the depth of the rear sections here ranges from 45 to 70 km, which will allow the DPR army to successfully distribute forces and take the enemy into the next tactical "cauldrons. ". As a result, the defeat of the latter in battles will mean the final failure of the junta on the southern front of the DPR.
However, not everything is so simple here. In addition to the 3 above-mentioned highly protected operational areas, there are also so-called "risk windows" in the defense of the People's Militia of the DPR, the security of which is almost an order of magnitude worse than that observed in the area of the Svetlodar bridgehead. We are talking about the southern sections of the Telmanovsky Isthmus, or, to be more precise, about the loopholes “Pishchevik - October - Rosa Luxemburg”, as well as “Pavlopol - Sosnovskoe - Konkovo”. The operational depth of the rear zones in these areas does not even reach 40 km (from the contact line to the Russian border), while the distance from the developed fortified areas of the 1st AK NM DNR in Novoazovsk, Bezymenny and Telmanovo exceeds 10 km. This, in turn, creates significant difficulties for the DPR NM units in organizing direct fire control of the western approaches to the strategically important Starobeshevo - Novoazovsk highway; It is this highway that is the only "artery" for the operational saturation of the Southern Front of the DPR with additional units transferred from the central part of the republic and the rear areas.
The snag is that in order to ensure that very fire control of country roads along the Pishchevik - October - Rosa Luxemburg line, where the Armed Forces of Ukraine have the most chances of a "breakthrough", the positions of the anti-tank artillery batteries of the DPR army with 2A29 Rapier howitzers are in service should be deployed near such settlements as Ukrainskoe, Chumak and Samsonovo. It is from these lines that more or less effective use of the 100-mm Rapier against Ukrainian armored "kulaks" is possible. Moreover, calculations of the Konkurs-M ATGM should be transferred to these areas, capable of effectively hitting Ukrainian T-64BVs at even greater distances, not only in side projections, but also in frontal projections (using the 9M113M tandem ATGM with 750 mm armor penetration for dynamic protection). At the same time, the provincial infrastructure of the aforementioned villages does not allow the DPR NM units to create powerful fortified areas in the south of the Telmanovsky region, especially against the background of a 2.5-fold superiority of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the amount of equipment. The close location of Sartana and Volnovakha also plays in favor of ukrov. These large settlements are located 2-2.5 times closer to “risk windows” than Novoazovsk or Bezymennoye; it is logical that the tactical advantage here will be on the side of the Armed Forces. Moreover, in Volnovakha and Sartan there are mixed formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, foreign PMCs, as well as volunteer battalions numbering more than 5,500-7,000 militants, which is 3-5 times more than the number of brigades and battalions of the DPR army responsible for the defense of the Telman Isthmus.
The increased likelihood of an escalation of the conflict in the area of "risk windows" "Pavlopol - Sosnovskoe" or "Pishchevik - October" is indicated not only by the geography of the southern regions of the Donbass theater of military operations favorable to the Ukrainian formations, but also by the operational information received from eyewitnesses, military correspondents and representatives of the DPR Ministry of Defense for 2017. In particular, at the beginning of the year, a battery of ultra-long-range 203-mm self-propelled artillery units 2S7 "Pion" was deployed to Pavlopol (northeastern outskirts of Mariupol) under cover of the night. This was stated with reference to the operational command of the NM DNR by the republican mass media, as well as the community of the "Bulletin of the militia". Later, information about the availability of ACS data near Mariupol began to be forgotten, nevertheless, the fact remains: the most formidable units of barrel artillery in the post-Soviet space continue to remain at the southern part of the contact line. For what? Not hard to guess.
Taking into account the fact that standard 203-mm high-explosive fragmentation shells ZOF43 have a range of 37400 m, and active-reactive ZOF44 - 47500 m, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be able to use "Pions" for delivering long-range pinpoint strikes at transport hubs and columns of armored vehicles near Novoazovsk, Telmanovo and even located in the rear zone of Starobeshevo. The presence of more than 80 2S7 self-propelled guns at the disposal of the Armed Forces endangers not only the operation of the DPR NM units far from the contact line, but also the life of the civilian population of almost the entire Northern Azov region, including the border territories of Russia in the Rostov region. Moreover, a mixed artillery unit of 40 guns (MT-12 Rapira, Akatsiya, Gvozdika, Hyacinth-B and D-30) was deployed in the settlements of Rybatskoye and Melekino (Belosaraiskaya Spit). Without a doubt, Kiev is holding back these formations in the Azov region for artillery preparation before the upcoming offensive in the direction of the southern villages of Telmanovsky district, while batteries deployed near Volnovakha will provide support from the north.
Information regarding the transfer of assault units, which are part of volunteer regiments and the Armed Forces of Ukraine, to the Mariupol fortified area (sector "M") comes from eyewitnesses almost daily. So, over the past 2 weeks, an increased activity of the formations of the "Azov" regiment was recorded, information about which, for unknown reasons, did not appear in the operational reports of the defense department of the Donetsk People's Republic. So, from the last days of December to January 15, 2018, more than 4-6 platoons of armed HP in the amount of 150-220 people were transferred to the large left-bank training base "Azov", located on the territory of the former secondary school No. 62, which indicates preparations for intense clashes with the use of infantry units in the vicinity of Mariupol.
The success of the People's Militia corps in repelling such a "throw" of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will depend solely on the correct understanding by the DPR army command of the tactical situation in the Mariupol-Volnovakha section on the left side of the Kalmius River. Strengthening in the Volnakhsky direction does not tolerate delays, because quite recently, according to eyewitnesses from the Kherson region, in the direction of the southern borders of the DPR along the M14 highway, a huge convoy of KrAZ APUs with the Nizhny Tagil 72 semitrailers that had been inherited at one time already says a lot.
