The friendship between Russia and the PRC is strengthening every day. Cooperation between the countries intensified after Vladimir Putin visited China at the end of May 2014. The main result of the Russian leader's visit to Beijing was the signing of the largest gas contract in the history of the two states. Under the terms of the contract, Gazprom undertakes to supply Beijing with 38 billion cubic meters of gas annually for 30 years. The total cost of the agreement reached is about $ 400 billion. This gas project has opened doors for countries for cooperation in other sectors as well. Another factor in the rapprochement between Moscow and Beijing was the US and EU policy aimed at economic isolation of Russia.
At a round table dedicated to cooperation between the two countries in the field of satellite navigation, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin said that Russia is preparing to master the solar system "hand in hand" with the Celestial Empire. The round table was held in Harbin, China, as part of the First Russian-Chinese EXPO exhibition. At the same exhibition, photographs of Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev were presented for the first time. Dmitry Rogozin stressed that space navigation is only one of the segments of the space services market in which countries can work together. In addition, he noted the possibility of joint work in the field of creating space materials and spacecraft, as well as in cartography and communications.
In the future, we could talk about the creation of our own independent radio component base, the development of spacecraft. “This would be a very serious step towards each other in the field of cooperation in space,” noted Dmitry Rogozin. After that, no one would have any doubts that Russia "hand in hand" with the PRC is ready to develop manned astronautics, is ready to engage in the exploration of the Moon and Mars, and the entire solar system as a whole.
According to the Russian Deputy Prime Minister, the parties deserve to move to a new level of high-quality technological cooperation between the states, while one can start with cooperation in the GLONASS and Beidou projects. According to Rogozin, these programs go well with each other. Due to the specifics of these two systems, today we have no real competition in the Northern Hemisphere, especially if we talk about northern latitudes, the Deputy Prime Minister developed his idea. At the same time, China, when creating its own satellite navigation system, is deploying its orbital group to the south. Therefore, GLONASS and Beidou could be perfectly combined with each other, complementing each other. In this matter, our countries have a great future.
At the same time, the Russian-Chinese event dedicated to space exploration took place against the backdrop of continuing failures that plague our country in this area. Dmitry Rogozin himself noted the high percentage of accidents and stressed that it is simply impossible to put up with this state of affairs. At present, a deep reform of the entire rocket and space industry is being carried out in the Russian Federation, its purpose is to catch up with technological progress, Rogozin emphasized. According to him, deep reforms carried out in this area should ultimately lead to the consolidation of the entire Russian rocket and space industry.
The last major accident in the Russian space industry occurred in May 2014. As a result of the crash of the Proton-M launch vehicle, Russia lost its most powerful communications satellite, which was never launched into orbit. Among the versions of what happened, even sabotage was considered. In addition, the tests of the newest Russian environmentally friendly Angara rocket were not carried out on schedule. But this launch, although it was postponed several times, still took place. The first tests of the light rocket were successful.
But even despite all the recent setbacks, the round table in Harbin ended on a rather optimistic note. A memorandum of understanding was signed in the field of cooperation on global navigation satellite systems. On the Chinese side, it was signed by the Office for Satellite Navigation, and on the Russian side - by the Federal Space Agency. This memorandum confirms a new level of cooperation between the two states in space exploration.
Russia loses space race to China
At present, Russia is losing the space race to China, and this is becoming noticeable even in numerical terms. The Angara family of launch vehicles is the mirror that reflects all the pros and cons of the post-Soviet space industry. One of the advantages of modern Russia is the ability to create rather complex space technology (although, for the most part, we are talking about rockets). The disadvantages, of course, include non-compliance with project deadlines. The same "Angara" has been under development for almost 20 years, if we count from the moment the winner was determined in the project competition. Also in the liabilities of our space industry is overstatement of costs and inefficiency. The Accounts Chamber of Russia turned its attention to these criteria back in 2013. The Russian "Angara" will become a rather expensive rocket, and its price can negatively affect its future, especially if the Americans and the same Chinese succeed in creating missiles with a lower cost of putting the payload into orbit, and everything goes to that.
At the same time, for Russia, it is the commercial market for the delivery of various cargoes into space that continues to be the segment where we still retain our leadership. About 40% of Russian rockets fly into space exclusively with foreign payloads in the form of various satellites and astronauts. However, on the scale of the entire modern space economy, this is a very small segment, accounting for less than 1% (about $ 2 billion). With the arrival of new competitors on this market, there is a high probability that Russia will have to seriously make room here as well.
In the very near future, in the space race, Russia may finally be crowded out by the PRC. At present, the number of satellites operating in orbit for Russia and China has become equal: over the last 3 years, China has increased the number of satellites to 117 units (72% growth), and Russia - to 118 units (20% growth). At the same time, already at the end of 2013, China launched its first lunar rover, which successfully landed on the moon. By 2020, the Celestial Empire expects to land a man on the Moon and build its first full-fledged orbital station. At present, the PRC has already caught up with the United States in terms of the number of rocket launches, and in terms of the pace of development of the space industry, it simply came out on top in the world.
Today, the PRC is significantly ahead of our country in the number of non-military satellites in orbit designed to study meteorology, Earth exploration, space exploration and the development of its technologies. At the same time, China will not be satisfied with what has already been achieved. Euroconsult experts believe that from 2013 to 2016 alone, China will launch about 100 of its satellites - the most in the world. It is also important to note the quality component. Today, the average expected operating time of Chinese satellites is 7.4 years, Russian satellites - 6.3 years. For comparison: Europe and the United States have 10, 2 and 9, 9 years, respectively).
At the same time, the Russian Federation's expenditures on space exploration in the last 10 years have grown by 14 times at once, last year our country spent about $ 10 billion on space, which is 14% of the total world government spending in this area. Despite the fact that Russia is one of the leaders in terms of costs, our country occupies only peripheral positions in terms of income from space. According to estimates given by RBC, today the Russian Federation accounts for no more than 1.6% of the revenue of the entire world commercial space, which, according to experts, is estimated at $ 240 billion a year.
At the same time, Russia may also lose its leadership in commercial starts. All the participants in the race - the United States, China and the EU - are creating their new spaceships and rockets, including for the delivery of cargo and pilots on board the ISS. For example, after the start of flights of space shuttles Dragon, which are produced by the American company SpaceX, the demand for domestic Progress transports fell immediately by a third. Vitaly Lopota, the head of RSC Energia, told about this to the journalists. At the same time, SpaceX is developing a new heavy-class Falcon Heavy rocket, which is able to launch up to 53 tons of various cargoes into low reference orbits for only 1.5-2.5 thousand dollars per 1 kg. The PRC is also currently working on relatively inexpensive Long March 5/7 heavy missiles, and hopes to increase its share in commercial launches to 15% by 2020. A country that did not make a single commercial launch in 2013 expects to do this.
The newest Russian rocket "Angara", whose maiden flight was supposed to take place in 2005, has attracted the attention of auditors from the Russian Accounts Chamber. The auditors concluded that the money that was invested in the project for almost 20 years of work (an unprecedented period for world practice) has multiplied the cost of this rocket. At the same time, the exact cost of the finished missiles has not yet been disclosed. Judging by the cost of engines for the first stage, the upper stage and the complex of launch services, the price of one Angara-5 rocket (heavy version of the LV), which is able to deliver up to 24.5 tons of cargo into orbit, could reach $ 100 million. Delivery cost - 4, 1 thousand dollars per 1 kg of cargo. This exceeds not only the cost of cargo delivery for the Falcon Heavy rocket (from 1.5 to 2.5 thousand dollars per 1 kg), but also the existing Proton-M rocket (3.3 thousand dollars per 1 kg).
Russia is very ineffective in spending money on space
From all this follows the fact that Russia is spending money ineffectively on space. According to the Space Report 2014, the total government spending of all countries in the world on space in 2013 amounted to $ 74.1 billion. Moreover, more than half (41.3 billion) came from the United States. However, Russia also spent a huge amount of money - $ 10 billion. Over 10 years, expenses have grown 14 times. At present, with an indicator of $ 47 for every $ 10,000 of the country's GDP, Russia ranks first in the ranking of indicators of government spending on space, in the United States this figure is equal to $ 25, and in China only $ 4.
Russia does not spare money for space. As part of the implementation of the new state program "Space activities of Russia for 2013-2020", it is planned to allocate an impressive amount of 1.8 trillion rubles. But those who "look" at this figure, the question arises: how effectively were the funds spent on the previous program, for which 0.5 trillion rubles have been allocated since 2006? According to the previous state program for the development of the Russian rocket and space industry, the share of the Russian Federation in the world market of rocket and space technology was supposed to be increased from 11% to 21% by 2015. But now, according to RBK with reference to the United Rocket and Space Corporation (URSC), this share is 12%. That is, it has hardly changed in any way compared to the figure reached 8 years ago. At the same time, in the new state program, this figure is planned to be brought to only 16% by 2020.
According to the 2006 program, it was planned that the share of modern industrial equipment at the enterprises of the industry (the equipment is less than 10 years old) by 2015 will grow from 3% to 35%. However, according to the information of the URRC, this figure was only raised to 12%. Today, the Russian rocket and space industry uses more than 70% of technological equipment that is already over 20 years old. The situation with patents is also sad. During the period from 2000 to 2008, our country accounted for only 1% of patents related to the space industry, and the United States - 50%. At the same time, one must take into account the fact that in Russia the space industry is patented 3 times more often than all others.
As the audit by the Accounts Chamber showed, out of 15 targets and indicators that were set for 2010, only 6 (40%) were achieved, in 2011 - 10 (66, 7%), in 2012 - 11 (73, 3%). At the same time, the number of Russian satellites launched into Earth's orbit in 2010-2012 was only 47.1% of the planned indicators, which is significantly lower than the required level. At the same time, the costs of developing Russian satellites are 4 times higher than foreign standards, and their operational and technical characteristics are very low, and their accident rate is also growing. According to the auditors, in recent years the industry has practically “developed a system of collective irresponsibility”. Roskosmos, which simultaneously performed both the functions of the manufacturer and the functions of the customer, and sometimes the operator of certain space systems, in practice was not responsible either for the fulfillment of tasks or for their timing. All this has led to the situation that we have now and which, perhaps, can only be corrected by a deep reform of the entire industry.
