At present, about fifty states of the world have their own space program and operate their own spacecraft for various purposes. 37 states, at least once, sent their cosmonaut into orbit, but only a dozen of them have the ability to independently launch spacecraft without turning to third countries for help. At the same time, the undisputed leaders in the space industry are still its founders - Russia and the United States. Nevertheless, active actions of other states in the foreseeable future may lead to the emergence of new major "players" in the space "arena". First of all, China, which is more than actively developing its rocket and space technologies, can join the list of leaders in space exploration.
In recent decades, China has been striving to obtain the title of a superpower, and one of the criteria for such a state is a developed space program. In addition, the emerging economy is forcing the Chinese government to invest heavily in satellite communications and other aspects of civilian space exploration. As a result of increased attention from the official Beijing, the Chinese space industry currently employs about 200 thousand people, and the industry's annual budget is equivalent to 15 billion US dollars.
Separately, it is worth noting the fact that in addition to real results related to the armed forces, economy or technology, China assigns an ideological role to space exploration. With the end of the Cold War, Russia and the United States have long ceased to use space achievements as an ideological tool or a reason to compete with each other. China, in turn, has not yet passed the stage of competition with other states and therefore relies, among other things, on ideological issues. This may also explain China's recent successes in the space industry.
The emergence of new players with great potential in the global space industry cannot but affect the general state of the corresponding part of the economy and industry. The emergence of numerous European and Chinese projects has already led to a change in the structure of the market for space-related services, such as the launch of commercial spacecraft, the creation of such equipment, etc. If China is able to fully enter this market, then we should expect new significant changes. However, so far the Chinese astronautics is in no hurry to make proposals to foreign organizations, limiting itself only to work on the development of its space infrastructure.
China's active work in the framework of its own space program is often cause for concern. For example, for several years now, discussions have begun regularly on the possibility of unpleasant incidents caused by China's actions. For example, according to one version, China may place some kind of nuclear weapons in space. At the end of the sixties, the USA, Great Britain and the USSR signed an agreement excluding such use of outer space. Later, several third countries, including China, joined this agreement. Thus, from a legal point of view, the Chinese military cannot use Earth's orbit as a site for any weapons of mass destruction. At the same time, concerns about a possible breach of the terms of the contract persist and remain a source of controversy.
It is noteworthy that various opinions related to China's military projects in space appear with enviable regularity. In this context, one can recall the discussion of the incident in 2007, when a Chinese missile shot down a faulty FY-1C weather satellite. During a successful attack, the device was at an altitude of more than 860 kilometers, which was the reason for the corresponding conclusions. The world has learned that China has at least a working prototype of a promising anti-satellite weapon. Over the past decades, the leading space powers have repeatedly tried to create similar systems, but in the end, all such projects were closed. Roughly in the late nineties or early 2000s, China joined the United States and the USSR as the sponsors of the anti-satellite weapons project. The current state of the Chinese anti-satellite missile project remains unknown and is therefore cause for concern.
China, starting new projects in one area or another, constantly demonstrates its determination and readiness to go to the end. This feature of the Chinese projects, combined with ideological motives and the country's general intentions to become a superpower, leads a considerable number of experts to not too happy and positive conclusions. One of the consequences, including the Chinese, activity in space was the European work on the creation of a "Code of Conduct in Outer Space". In November-December, under the auspices of the European Union, a regular meeting of specialists from several countries will take place to discuss the existing version of the draft Code and make the necessary adjustments to it.
The new international treaty should become an instrument for regulating some aspects of the use of outer space. First of all, he will touch on military projects. In addition, it is supposed to resolve the situation with space debris and create general recommendations for the disposal of spacecraft that have worn out their service life. The account of the latter has long been in the hundreds, and the number of various small debris and fragments is almost impossible to accurately count. The "Code of Conduct in Outer Space" will not help to immediately get rid of the existing problems, but, as expected, it will reduce the increase in the amount of space debris, and then contribute to the cleaning of orbits.
It is too early to say whether China will join the new agreement and abide by its terms. The new Code currently exists only in the form of a draft and it will take at least months, if not years, to prepare it. During this time, Chinese scientists and engineers can complete several new programs related to space exploration. Among them there may be those that will have to be closed after the signing of the agreement, which, under a certain set of circumstances, will affect the very possibility of joining an international agreement.
However, the conditions and features of the application of the Code, as well as the list of countries participating in this agreement, are still in question. In this regard, it remains to operate only with the available information. Despite foreign concerns, China continues to pursue its plans in the space industry. Probably, already now he is engaged in military projects, and these projects concern not only satellite reconnaissance, etc. tasks.
At present, China is fighting for the third place in the global space "hierarchy". Its main competitor in this matter is the European Union. At the same time, as follows from some of the features of the Chinese space program, the official Beijing does not intend to compete with European astronautics. Its goal is to catch up and overtake the leading countries represented by the United States and Russia. Therefore, for the foreseeable future, China will continue to publish reports of its new successes and close the gap with the industry leaders, along the way, making foreign specialists nervous.
