We will destroy the whole world of violence
To the ground, and then …
("Internationale", A. Ya. Kots)
At the turn of the XX - XXI centuries in scientific sociological and political thought, there was a renewed interest in the development of the theory of revolution and the revolutionary process. Throughout the XX century, the theory of revolution developed as an economic and political theory, it was studied from the point of view of the psychology of leaders and the psychology of the masses, from the point of view of rational or irrational choice, studied by structuralists and theorists of deprivation, within the framework of neo-Marxism and elitist theories, in the theory of revolutions and state decays …
Rice. 1. "We are destroying borders between countries." USSR, 1920s
It should be noted that theorization is currently absent in this respect. The foundations of the modern theory of understanding revolutions have already been formulated over the course of three generations of theorists studying revolutionary processes. Today, the fourth generation of the theory of revolution is expected to appear, as the American sociologist and political scientist D. Goldstone put it. Under his leadership, large-scale collective studies of intrasocial conflicts and stability were carried out in the framework of global studies based on situational and quantitative analysis in the 1980s and 1990s. In the same connection, it is worth mentioning the studies of revolutionary processes and social threats in the third world countries (Latin America) by D. Foran, T. P. Wickham-Crowley, D. Goodwin and others.
The questions posed by the researchers can be formulated as follows: is the era of revolutions over? If so, why? And most importantly: what is it that is the cause of revolutions?
Is it really a conservative tendency in the social sphere in the era of globalization and the neoliberal economy has no alternative, as Margaret Thatcher argued?
The conclusions of the scientists are not so unambiguous. So, in the late 1990s, this issue was discussed in relation to the countries most vulnerable to revolutionary explosions, and the scientific community came to exactly the opposite conclusions. Thus, Jeff Goodwin, a renowned professor of sociology at the University of New York, argued that the example of Latin American countries can be used to speak of reducing the ground for sharp revolutionary conflicts. Instead of replacing them, other progressive social movements will have to come, the role of which will gradually increase (feminism, ethnic movements, religious, minorities, etc.)
His opponent, Eric Salbin, known for his information and propaganda activities, expressed a different point of view: the global gap between the haves and have-nots will not diminish, the development of neoliberalism is not able to equalize this gap, so revolutions are inevitable and very likely in the future. Moreover, if we take the cultural context as well, then the revolution, especially for the third world countries, with its emphasis on resistance and renovation dominance, always means a new beginning, inspires people, rejuvenates culture. For the nation itself, it is a kind of magical action for revival and self-purification.
John Foran, professor of sociology at the University of Santa Barbara, who at the turn of the 20th and 21st centuries was engaged in comparative research of revolutions, partially agreed with this statement. It belongs to him to substantiate the concept of postmodern revolutions, and above all he rejects the thesis about the end of revolutions. He argues that the era of modern revolutions based on a class approach has ended. Now revolutionary processes are associated with the identification of social groups, based on other criteria - gender, cultural, ethnic, religious, etc. Understanding of the class and identification with it is replaced by the search for identity "associated with the way in which people reckon or associate themselves with others, forming social groups or collectives ". The main difference here lies in the fact that class is an objective social structure, and identity is an artificial construct, is related to discursive practices and is culturally constructed.
Fig. 2. "Let's destroy the old world and build a new one." China, 1960s
He also objects to the supporters of globalism, who argued that revolution, as a struggle for power in a state, also loses its meaning, since in a globalizing world the states themselves are losing power, world cash flows, the flows of power and information bypass and bypass national states, dissolving the power of the latter. He believes that in the new world this struggle will also be relevant, but it will become a struggle for identity and against instrumental rationality and the "authoritarian characteristics of modernity."
Regarding the importance of identity and identification with a group and its role in protest movements, it is appropriate to recall the long-developed theory of rational choice models. Researchers have pointed out that individuals participating in uprisings and protest movements acquire motivation, "are recruited and sanctioned through the already existing communities to which they belong, but the awakening of a specifically oppositional group identity depends on the actions of revolutionary activists and the state."
Strengthening oppositional convictions in the minds of individuals, allowing the formation of oppositional identity instead of social, national, state, etc. is achieved through a number of factors. Among them, researchers highlight the belief in the effectiveness of protest, which is supported by the private victories and acquisitions of the revolutionary group, injustice on the part of the state, evidence of its weakness. Rational choice models further support these findings: there is no contradiction with the fact of collective action; on the contrary, rational choice analysis, together with other approaches, is used to identify the processes by which collective actions solve their problems, and the general characteristics of such decisions. All of these decisions are based on authorization and group identification.
Rational choice models also explain the escalation of revolutionary mobilization. Confidence in the relative weakness of the regime and the presence of other groups and individuals who support protest actions lead to it. In this case, informational influence is important and is a catalyst for those groups that already had an inner conviction of the injustice of the existing social and state structure, and solidarity with groups of similar views allows one to gain confidence in their strength and ability to reverse an unsatisfactory situation. This creates a "trailer effect": more and more groups take part in actions, the moment for which seems more and more favorable.
Rice. 3. Vietnam - Ho Chi Minh (propaganda poster). Vietnam, 1960s
In general, scientists come to the conclusion that a revolutionary process is inevitable. Since it is based on social and economic inequality between classes and groups in the state, wider and in a global context, social inequality between the countries of the North (the most prosperous and richest countries) and the South (poor and socially unstable countries) has not disappeared anywhere, but continues to deepen.
Note that they tried to study the revolutionary process at the end of the 20th century using the methods of exact sciences. Especially since the late 1980s and 90s, in connection with the development of information technologies and programming, quantitative research of revolutions using methods of mathematical modeling has revived, but not on the basis of historical material, but on the basis of current political events. For this purpose, the statistical analysis of large numbers was used, later - the algebra of logic. These methods allow you to give a formal description of the logical side of the processes. Algebra of logic deals with boolean variables, which can take only two values: "yes" or "no" / "true" or "false". No matter how complex the logical connection between a logical function and its arguments is, this connection can always be represented as a set of three simplest logical operations: NOT, AND, OR. This set is called a Boolean basis. When modeling, the specificity of each of the analyzed situations is taken into account and various configurations of independent variables are allowed. After that, using certain algorithms, a minimum set or sets of variables are calculated that characterize specific results (in our case, revolutionary processes). At the same time, interest in classical revolutions, cause-and-effect relationships and consequences is declining.
In the 1990s, the method of regressive analysis was used to study social conflicts (civil wars and insurrectionary movements) of the 1960-1990s in the African region. Examples include studies by Oxford and similar studies by Stanford scientists. Let's pay attention to the fact that the main elements of the hypothesis, tested independently by all researchers, were the following:
1. the presence of a connection between the increase in the number of civil wars and the period of the end of the "cold war" and the changes it engendered in the international system;
2. the presence of a link between the increase in the number of civil wars and the ethnic and religious composition of the population;
3. the presence of a connection between the increase in the number of civil wars and the existence of a tough political regime in the state, pursuing a policy of discrimination against certain ethnic and religious groups.
The hypothesis was not confirmed in these aspects. Researchers come to the conclusion that factors such as religious and ethnic differences are not the root cause of permanent social conflicts (this is indirectly confirmed in the works of S. Olzak, who studied the influence of racial and ethnic differences on the escalation of social conflicts using American material).
According to the results of the research, the destabilization of political regimes on the part of international actors is not it. The political actions of state institutions, their regime characteristics and actions are also not the root cause of the radicalization of social relations. The flow time, the recruitment of participants and their episodic actions do not affect the causes of the emergence of social conflicts. All these parameters are important as the conditions for the course of the conflict, determine its features, but no more.
But what then?
Let's go back almost 150 years ago. It is worth recalling the interaction in the process of social development of the basis and the superstructure within the framework of the Marxist concept. Superstructure: state institutions, ideology, religion, law, etc. Basis: economic development and the resulting relations and their consequences. Dialectics, as you know, is such that the basic relations determine the configuration of the superstructure, but not vice versa.
You can also name five interrelated causal factors developed by D. Foran, which must coincide in order to produce a revolutionary explosion: 1) the dependence of the development of the state on the external conjuncture of development; 2) the isolationist policy of the state; 3) the presence of powerful structures of resistance, developed within the framework of the culture of society; 4) economic recession or stagnation for a long time, and 5) the world - a systemic opening (albeit before external control). Combining all five factors in one time and space leads to the formation of broad revolutionary coalitions, which, as a rule, succeed in gaining power. Examples of this are Mexico, China, Cuba, Iran, Nicaragua, Algeria, Vietnam, Zimbabwe, Angola and Mozambique. With an incomplete coincidence, the achievements of the revolution come to naught or anticipate counter-revolution. Guatemala, Bolivia, Chile and Grenada are examples of this.
Rice. 4. "Long live Cuba!" Cuba, 1959.
What did independent mathematical analysis lead to in the end? And the conclusion is still the same: the main factors influencing the formation and escalation of social conflicts are poor economic development or stagnation in the economy, which generates negative social consequences; low per capita income, high level of social inequality. The following pattern was also revealed: the increase in the aggressiveness of the political struggle, social destabilization and radicalization as free economic competition develops. Historically, this is quite confirmed: millennia of lack of economic competition in different formations have minimized social revolutions and conflicts. The time of their growth refers precisely to the period of the formation of capitalist relations, and the peak comes under "developed capitalism", the basis of which, as you know, is free competition.
“No generally accepted theory of the fourth generation has yet been created, but the contours of such a theory are clear. Regime stability in it will be considered as an unobvious state and significant attention will be paid to the conditions for the existence of regimes for a long time; an important place will be occupied by issues of identity and ideology, gender issues, connections and leadership; revolutionary processes and consequences will be seen as the result of the interaction of numerous forces. More importantly, it is possible that theories of the fourth generation will combine the results of case studies, rational choice models and analysis of quantitative data, and the generalization of these theories will allow to cover situations and events that were not even mentioned in theories of revolution of previous generations."
