Enhancing the capabilities of their ground-based air defense systems for many countries is one of the highest priorities. Eastern Europe and the Baltic countries are seriously concerned about Russian military power, while in Asia they are concerned about missile tests in North Korea and China's unrelenting expansion. At the same time, there is a need in the Middle East for the procurement of long-range systems due to the conflict in Syria and neighboring countries.
In parallel with this, there is a noticeable increase in asymmetric threats, for example, these are attacks by small-sized unmanned aerial vehicles (M-UAVs) and mines / missiles conducted by non-state actors, which forces the military to equip their units with systems for countering M-UAVs and intercepting unguided missiles, artillery shells and min.
It is believed that using high-tech capabilities against low-cost threats, such as M-UAVs, is economically inefficient, resulting in an expanding market for more cost-effective solutions to combat UAVs, the demand for which has grown sharply. As a result, manufacturers are trying to add anti-UAV and unguided missiles, artillery shells and mines capabilities to current systems or create new solutions to increase their market share.
Other areas include increased funding for R&D on low-cost interceptors that use kinetic energy instead of explosive warheads, or on various alternative, primarily economically viable solutions capable of intercepting low-cost threats at different distances.
Although in recent years there has been a marked increase in activity associated with the design and development of directed energy weapons systems, security remains a major unresolved issue and technology needs to be "brought to mind" before talking about full-fledged operation.
Despite the increased demand for these relatively small short-range systems, it is predicted that in the coming decades, the anti-aircraft systems market will be dominated by medium and long-range systems. Growth in this area may be due to increased investment in the development of advanced systems from countries such as China, France, Italy, India, Russia, Turkey and the United States.
In addition to the major programs currently under way, there are a number of unmet needs. All this guarantees a consistently high demand in the medium term.
Success of "Patriot"
The largest market share in the market for medium and long-range air defense and missile defense systems currently being produced is occupied by Raytheon, which accounts for 62% of all current orders for Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems. Concern Almaz-Antey and Lockheed Martin occupy 24% and 10%, respectively.
Raytheon's leading role is due to the implementation of a long-term program for the Patriot complex, where the largest customer is the United States, to which 15 more partner countries must be added. Analysis by industry experts shows that Patriot has garnered more than $ 330 billion in orders since its inception, and, as the company rightly hopes, this figure will only grow in the future.
The United States is also investing heavily in Lockheed Martin's THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) anti-missile system. Although purchased by a small number of countries, it has already gained a significant market share in dollar terms, which is partly due to its very high cost.
Using the declared value of contracts to estimate the cost of the program, it is safe to say that THAAD is the most expensive ground-based long-range missile defense system. At the same time, it is also the most effective system capable of intercepting ballistic missiles of various classes in the atmospheric and extra-atmospheric sections of the trajectory using direct hit technology. Since its commissioning in 2009, only three countries have bought the complex: Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and the United States. Meanwhile, Romania and South Korea have supplemented the capabilities of their missile defense systems through the deployment of THAAD complexes, provided to them for temporary use by the United States.
Compared to the Patriot and the Russian S-400 system, the Aegis Ashore complex, the ground-based version of the Aegis Combat System, originally developed by Lockheed Martin for the US Navy's missile defense program, is a relatively new system.
The first Aegis Ashore facility was opened in May 2015 in Romania. The second facility, which is part of the missile defense system of NATO countries and US troops deployed in Europe, was scheduled to take up combat duty in the Polish city of Redzikowo on schedule, but commissioning was postponed until 2020. The average cost of the Aegis Ashore system is estimated at about $ 1.2 billion.
In the mid-price range, that is, between the Patriot and the S400, there are no other players on the market that can actually cope with the growing threat of ballistic missiles developed by countries such as North Korea. As a result, the Patriot and S-400 systems are the most purchased complexes in this segment, with 418 orders for the first and 125 orders for the second.
Customer base
As can be seen from the above, the United States is the largest buyer of medium and long-range ground-based air defense and missile defense systems in the world. To date, they have purchased 220 Patriot batteries in various configurations, which are regularly upgraded.
These capabilities are complemented by the THAAD complex, which is considered as the upper echelon for the Patriot. THAAD complements this air defense system by intercepting ballistic threats at the end of the trajectory. Until 2011, the United States was the only operator of seven THAAD batteries capable of protecting against threats flying at ranges up to 200 km and altitudes up to 150 km.
Controversial decision
According to some reports, due to urgent operational needs, the THAAD and Patriot complexes deployed by the United States on the Korean Peninsula will be integrated at a higher level by the end of 2020.
One of the most talked about major programs at the moment is the layered air defense system of Turkey, which is scheduled for commissioning in the 2020s. For this purpose, Ankara actively purchases various systems of local and foreign production of short, medium and long range.
The government has already purchased the Hisar-A and Hisar-O short- and medium-range anti-aircraft missile systems produced by the local company Aselsan, which should be on alert by 2021.
The country is also very eager to develop its own long-range system and in November 2018 announced the creation of the Siper (Russian, Zaslon). The French-Italian consortium Eurosam is working with Turkish companies Aselsan and Roketsan on its feasibility study, although it is unlikely that the system will be ready in time and the country will be able to meet its needs even in the medium term.
In this regard, an intermediate solution is currently being procured, which will also create certain conditions for technology transfer and accelerate the development of the national Siper system.
In September 2017, Turkey signed an agreement on the supply of four Russian-made S-400 Triumph divisions for a total of about $ 15 billion. These purchases greatly upset the United States, which strongly advised against purchasing these systems. Deliveries of the systems began in July 2019, and in July the White House issued a statement stating that as a result of Turkey's purchases of these weapons, it will be officially excluded from the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) program, citing the fact that the fighter the fifth generation cannot work together with the Russian information gathering platform. The statement also noted that the United States made every effort to provide Turkey with an air defense system, for which it even moved the country to the top of the list of buyers of the Patriot complex. Nevertheless, due to Ankara's "stubbornness", Washington temporarily suspended the supply of fighters and excluded the country from the program for the production of components for this aircraft.
Many reasons have been voiced in favor of the Patriot complex. Firstly, these complexes were deployed in Turkey from 1991 to 2013 as part of the NATO mission to strengthen the country's air defense, although the calculations consisted entirely of American troops. In addition, since the Patriot is the best-selling ground-based air defense system, the cost of its fire battery is in the order of $ 776 million, which is significantly less than the cost of the S-400 battery, which is estimated at $ 950 million. Finally, the complex is initially fully compatible with NATO aircraft, while the integration of the S-400 into the Turkish air defense system requires software refinement.
It is obvious that the one S-400 regiment delivered to date cannot meet the current needs of Ankara, which back in 2009 requested 13 Patriot complexes at an estimated cost of $ 7.8 billion. With the outbreak of the Syrian crisis in 2011, Turkey, whose air defense is based only on combat aircraft, realized that this approach to protecting the airspace on its southern borders was economically inefficient in the long term and turned to long-range missile programs.
Turkey's combat aviation consists mainly of 260 F-16C / D fighters delivered under the Peace Onyx I-V program from 1986 to 2012. Although they have gone through two major upgrades, their already extended lifespan is nearing the end. It came to an end earlier than expected due to the many hours of aerial patrols and interception missions along the borders with Syria and Iraq. In connection with these circumstances, the need for missile weapons only increased.
With the dramatic cuts in the number of combat personnel associated with the failed coup d'état in 2016, it seems clear that the S-400 purchase process has been accelerated to close the gap in air defense capabilities.
However, trying to stay in the JSF fighter program, Turkey decided to make a tactical concession and deployed Russian air defense systems near Istanbul and Ankara, respectively, 1100 km and 650 km from the F-35 fighter airbase in Malatya.
Race of two candidates
Meanwhile, Germany is undoubtedly implementing the largest ground-based air defense and medium / long-range missile defense program. According to public records, the country accepted shipments of 53 Patriot fire batteries between 1986 and 2010. Germany has successfully upgraded its own systems to the latest version of the PAC-3, with the exception of 18 batteries, which at various times were transferred to other countries: the Netherlands (3); Israel (4); South Korea (8); and Spain (3).
As part of the German TLVS project, MBDA's next-generation MEADS (Medium Extended Air Defense System) ground-based air defense system competes with Raytheon's Patriot upgrade proposal.
TLVS program requirements include 360 ° all-round coverage, open configuration, plug-and-play functionality that seamlessly connects additional sensors and weapons systems, rapid deployment, and lower lifetime costs compared to the existing Patriot system on armament of the German army.
In mid-2018, Lockheed Martin and MBDA received a second RFP for TLVS development, which identified MEADS as the preferred system for Germany and the target for further development. Until now, the program has progressed slowly, development started back in 2004, with Berlin being the only potential customer. If the target is successfully completed, the MEADS system will replace the German Patriot complexes by the 2040s.
France operates 10 SAMP / T air defense systems developed by the Eurosam consortium, a joint venture between Thales and MBDA. In 2016, the consortium received a contract to develop a new version of the Aster 30 missile for the French Ministry of Defense as part of the SAMP / T modernization.
The adoption of the Aster Block 1 New Technology rocket is accompanied by system modifications in order to obtain improved capabilities, especially in the fight against ballistic missiles; first deliveries to the French Air Force are expected in 2023.
The enemy does not sleep
Although Russia, in the opinion of the West, poses a threat to the air defense systems of many countries, Moscow itself is implementing a number of projects of various ranges.
Since 2016, the Russian ground forces have received three brigade sets of the Buk-M3 medium-range military air defense complex. However, Russia is going to adopt more Buk-M3 complexes. It was first shown to the public at the Army-2018 exhibition under the export name Viking.
The Russian military intends to adopt the first S-350 Vityaz complex in 2019. This medium-range anti-aircraft missile system has been in development since 2007 and was first shown to the public in 2013. The Ministry of Defense plans to purchase up to 27 kits by the end of 2020. Initially, it was announced that the complex would be deployed by the Russian Aerospace Forces in 2015-2016, but due to unnamed technical problems, the development was behind schedule. The S-350 complex is intended to replace the previous versions of the S-300 (NATO index - SA-10 Grumble) and should fill the existing niche between the Buk-M2 / 3 and the S-400.
In January 2017, it was announced that four air defense regiments were equipped with S-400 systems and that four more will receive these systems in the same year. As of January 2019, the Russian Aerospace Forces were armed with 96 batteries out of 112 ordered.
According to some reports, Russia is considering purchasing at least five S-500 regiments, which will be deployed in the early 2020s. This long-range system is being developed by the Almaz-Antey Concern and, according to the developer, has a maximum range of up to 480 km. The start of serial production is scheduled for the second half of 2020.
Not all developed countries are present in this market. For example, Great Britain is not armed with medium and long-range ground anti-aircraft systems, relying on sea and air-based forces and means. However, the country is working on the Sky Saber program; the military hopes to receive these medium-range systems in the early 2020s. As part of this project, MBDA is developing a Land Ceptor rocket under a $ 303 million contract.
Doubling
Saudi Arabia (one of two foreign customers of both THAAD and Patriot systems) is armed with 22 Patriot fire batteries, which includes 21 systems purchased in 2014-2017 for $ 1.7 billion and upgraded to the PAC-3 configuration, plus one additional PAC-3 battery, purchased in 2017.
In October 2017, it was announced that Saudi Arabia had pre-approved the sale of THAAD systems and related support and maintenance equipment for a total of approximately $ 15 billion. Riyadh has reportedly signed an agreement with the United States for seven systems, which will be delivered in 2023-2026. The Saudis are also showing great interest in buying Russian S-400 systems.
The UAE is also armed with THAAD and Patriot complexes, having accepted the supply of nine PAC-3 batteries and two THAAD batteries in 2012-2014 under a $ 2.5 billion contract. The Falcon short / medium-range air defense system, shown at IDEX 2019 as a joint product of Diehl, Raytheon and Saab, is proposed by the UAE to replace the outdated Raytheon Hawk systems in service.
In 2014, Qatar ordered ten Patriot PAC-3 batteries, paying $ 7.6 billion for them; deliveries are scheduled for late 2019. The deliveries were reportedly completed ahead of schedule and at least one battery was put on alert at the end of 2018. Qatar, looking at its neighbors, also became interested in Russian S-400 systems.
Israel has one of the most advanced and modern layered air defense systems, which is associated with traditional and asymmetric threats emanating from neighboring territories. This system includes ten Iron Dome batteries (on duty since 2010), seven Patriot complexes, as well as Arrow, Barak-8 and David's Sling batteries. The USA financially participated in the development of the David's Sling complex; Since 2016, two deployed systems have been on alert, which are enough to cover the entire airspace of the country.
The ground-based version of the Barak-8 complex has also been in operation since 2017, but Israel is currently switching to the Barak-MX version, developed by IAI based on the Barak family, which includes three different anti-missile missiles, which can meet the needs of any customer.
Dynamic defense
The Asia-Pacific region is one of the fastest growing markets for medium and long-range ground-based air defense systems, driven by large procurement programs, including, for example, the Japanese Self-Defense Forces program, Korean air and missile defense systems and India's BMD 2009.
Other factors contributing to the growth of this market in the region include growing military spending with an emphasis on anti-aircraft capabilities, geopolitical instability, as well as rapid technological development driven by R&D in this area.
The growing threats from China and Pakistan, like the terrorist attacks in Mumbai in 2008, have forced the Indian government to revise its National Defense Plan, including air and missile defense. Currently, the BMD 2009 program provides for solid investments in this area.
The Indian Defense Research and Development Organization is developing the so-called Desi Local Missile Shield. India is reportedly planning to buy NASAMS II systems from Kongsberg and Raytheon for $ 1 billion to protect the capital from aerial threats. At the same time, in 2008, India ordered five regimental S-400 kits for a total of $ 5.2 billion. Deliveries will take place in 2020-2021.
South Korea in 2007 bought eight Patriot PAC-2 batteries from the German Armed Forces under the SAM-X program worth 1.2 billion. System deliveries were completed in 2009. In 2015, the modernization of the complexes was started in order to bring them to the PAC-3 standard; these works were completed in 2018.
In addition, in order to meet the needs of the South Korean Air Force, LIG Nex1, as the main contractor, worked with the Defense Development Agency on the Cheongung KM-SAM (Korean Medium-range Surface-to-Air Missile) medium-range missile, which is offered on the foreign market under the designation M -SAM.
In October 2016, the Ministry of National Defense announced that it plans to accelerate the development of the KM-SAM missile and complete it 2 or 3 years earlier. And so it happened, at the beginning of 2017, the first battery took up combat duty.
Ready answer
For its part, Japan began developing a defense system in 2004 in order to be fully prepared for attacks by North Korean ballistic missiles.
The Japanese missile defense system is an echelon system, the upper echelon of which is covered by destroyers with the Aegis system, and the lower echelon is covered by 27 battalions of five Patriot PAC-3 batteries, purchased since the mid-2000s. All systems are interconnected and coordinated by the Japanese Aerospace Defense Agency.
In December 2017, the Japanese cabinet approved a plan to purchase two Aegis Ashore systems, which are scheduled to go on alert by 2023 to keep the country safe from North Korean missiles. In January 2019, the $ 2.15 billion program received United States approval.
Japan is also interested in purchasing THAAD systems, seeking to add a new missile defense echelon, which will occupy a niche between the echelons covered by Patriot and Aegis systems.
Australia, meanwhile, relies entirely on its fleet to provide protection against ballistic missiles and other long-range air threats, but the country is implementing a medium-range missile defense and air defense program. This program is part of a larger integrated air defense and missile defense project called IAMD (Integrated Air and Missile Defense), which is being implemented jointly with the United States.
In 2017, Australia issued a tender request to Raytheon Australia to develop a variant of NASAMS for the Australian Army. The government is investing up to $ 2 billion in this system, which will create the lowest echelon of the improved IAMD system. The Department of Defense is completing a detailed analysis of the project before submitting it to the government for final review at the end of 2019.
Maintaining strength
China's interest in maintaining a strong position in the region has led to the development of high-tech long-range air defense systems on its own and the purchase of such systems abroad. China is armed with long-range HQ-9 systems, 24 S-300PMU-1/2 systems and an unnamed number of Sky Dragon 50 systems.
In 2015, Beijing ordered two regimental S-400 kits for a total of about three billion dollars. The first regimental kit was delivered to China in the spring of 2018, and the second kit was delivered in the summer of 2019.
In 2011, Singapore bought the Spyder-SR system to cover the lower echelon of its air defense system. The system, delivered in 2012, consists of two batteries with six launchers in one battery.
In 2018, Singapore took delivery of two SAMP / T systems for integration into the island's defense system, and in the same year it was officially announced that the country's new air defense system was on alert.
Taiwan spent $ 600 million to upgrade three Patriot batteries to the PAC-3 standard, which was carried out in 2011-2012. In 2015, four more PAC-3 batteries were delivered for a total of $ 1.1 billion.
The country also has a proprietary Sky Bow system in service. The original Sky Bow I system entered service in 1993 as part of the Sky Net air defense system, while the Sky Bow II complex was deployed in 1998. The newest version of the Sky Bow III was reportedly put on alert in 2016. The Sky Bow III complex should replace the Hawk complex, which is still in service with the Taiwanese military and, according to plans, will remain on alert until 2035.
