The export version of the Russian fifth-generation fighter T-50 / FGFA will be offered to the world market no earlier than 2018-2020, said Konstantin Makienko, deputy head of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies.
The Russian fifth-generation fighter T-50 completed its second test flight on February 12, 2010. He took off for the first time on January 29. The T-50 will perform another series of test flights in Komsomolsk-on-Amur, after which it will be relocated to the Zhukovsky airfield near Moscow at the Gromov Flight Research Institute, where the main tests will begin.
On December 21, 2010, during the visit of Russian President Dmitry Medvedev to India, a contract worth $ 295 million was signed for the preliminary design of the Indian version of the fighter.
How much will it cost?
“This means that any forecasts regarding the prospects for its export to third countries outside Russia and India will by definition be inaccurate due to the impossibility of predicting what the world will be like at this time. But today it is quite possible to describe the key factors that determine the export potential of T- 50 / FGFA, Makienko said.
The most important of them will be, according to him, the cost of the Russian-Indian aircraft, the dynamics of the creation of the Chinese project of the fifth generation fighter and the development of unmanned aircraft systems. Also among these factors are such basic factors for the arms market as a whole, such as the level of conflict potential and the state of the world economy.
The cost of the fighter will be determined based on how much relatively small states are willing to pay for it.
At present, it is assumed that in 2010 prices, the price of the T-50 will be 80-100 million dollars. In this case, the fighter will be available to all modern buyers of the Russian Su-30, surpass the American F-35 in terms of price criteria, and remain competitive against the hypothetical Chinese aircraft.
Export volumes
The export volumes of the T-50 will also depend on the pace of development of the Chinese fifth generation fighter. The Chinese car may become an even more dangerous competitor for the T-50 than the American F-35. Russian weapons are sold mainly to countries with independent foreign and defense policies, which, as a rule, prefer the purchase of non-US equipment, the source said.
While the PRC did not have serious offers of military aviation equipment, in the markets of such states Russia had either a quasi-monopoly or competed with the Europeans. "It is clear that the appearance of a fifth-generation complex in China will lead to direct and direct competition between the T-50 and the future Chinese aircraft," Makienko said.
Finally, the market size will be determined by new technological trends, the development of which may devalue the value of manned combat aircraft, the expert said. Today, the main risk of this kind appears to be progress in the field of attack unmanned aircraft systems, he added.
"We can only hope that by 2020 this factor will not have time to negatively influence the manned fighter market," Makienko said.
The most likely buyers of the T-50 are a priori countries that own Russian heavy Su-27/30 fighters, with the exception of China.
"The bad news is that when replacing the Su-30, the T-50 will most likely be purchased not in a one-to-one ratio, but at best one to one and a half," Makienko said.
Sales markets
According to the expert, the most promising markets are the states of Southeast Asia, which, for political reasons, will not consider the possibility of purchasing in China. These are, first of all, Vietnam, as well as Malaysia and Indonesia. With a high degree of confidence, the expert suggests, Algeria will also remain loyal to Russian technology.
"With regard to such a traditional buyer of Soviet technology as Libya, there is uncertainty associated with the unclear prospects of the political orientation of this country in the event that its already middle-aged leader leaves for natural reasons," Makienko said.
The Libyan state has been ruled by Muammar Gaddafi since 1969.
Due to the high risk of a change in the political regime and the curtailment of the Bolivarian revolutionary project of the incumbent President Hugo Chavez, it is difficult to predict Venezuelan orders after 2020. If the left government is preserved in this country, Russia will face the Chinese aviation industry, which has already won a victory here in the segment of training aircraft, the agency's interlocutor predicts.
“Finally, one can hope that some post-Soviet republics, first of all, Kazakhstan and Belarus, will become a natural market for Russian aircraft,” the expert said.
He expressed regret that potential Russian markets such as Iran and Syria are likely to come under Chinese control.
"In any case, the Russian political leadership, which has canceled contracts for the supply of Iskander-E operational-tactical complexes to Syria, and the S-300PMU-2 air defense system to Iran, is actively working in favor of just such a scenario," Makienko stressed.
On the other hand, according to him, in 10-20 years markets may open up for Russia, which today seem incredible. Thailand was one step away from buying the Su-30.
"In 20-30 years, perhaps, the colossal economic potential of Myanmar, dormant today, will be revealed," the expert suggested.
For Argentina, the purchase of the T-50 would be an excellent asymmetric response to the Brazilian plans to acquire 36, and in the future - 120 French Rafale.
“Today one thing is clear - the Russian-Indian alliance will certainly be one of the three world players in the fifth generation fighter market. This means that Russia has guaranteed itself the status of a world aviation industrial power for the entire first half of the 21st century,” Makienko said.
