Since 2011, the United States has not had its own manned spacecraft that can transport astronauts to the ISS. For several years, work has been going on to create the required equipment, and the first flights with people on board are expected in the near future. Boeing's Starliner and SpaceX's Dragon 2 are expected to seriously compete with the Russian Soyuz and reduce its share of manned space exploration. However, such plans may still look overly optimistic.
Big plans
Recall that the development of new space technology started at the beginning of this decade and was carried out as part of the NASA Commercial Crew Transportation Capability program (CCDev, later CCtCap). Initially, several companies participated in the program, but only Boeing and SpaceX projects - CST-100 Starliner and Dragon 2, respectively, made it to the final stage.
According to initial plans, tests of Boeing's Starliner were supposed to begin in 2015, and by the end of the decade, the ship could enter service. SpaceX's plans were similar. Her Dragon 2 was supposed to fly to the ISS in the second half of the decade and then begin transporting astronauts.
However, the technical requirements for the projects, the need to master new solutions and technologies, as well as a number of other factors led to a serious revision of the work schedules. At the moment, only one test flight has been performed on two projects, and without a crew on board. Manned flights, according to current plans, will begin only in spring 2020.
In mid-November, NASA's Office of the Inspector General (NASA OIG) released a status report on CCtCAP. According to one of the conclusions of this document, the first manned launches of new ships will be postponed until next summer.
Plans for "Starliner"
The schedule of work on the Boeing project has been repeatedly adjusted, and the deadlines for completing certain stages have constantly shifted to the right. For example, in the middle of last year, unmanned and manned flights were planned for April and August 2019. However, only a few tests were completed within this time frame.
By now, Boeing has found the causes of last year's accidents and reworked the ship. In early November, the rescue system was tested and found to be successful. Work continues, preparations are underway for new tests.
The Boe-OFT-1 mission is scheduled to start on December 19. The Starliner device in an unmanned configuration is planned to be launched into orbit and returned to Earth in eight days. In the first half of next year, a Boe-CTF flight with astronauts to the ISS will take place. Its exact date remains unknown.
In the CCtCAP program, not only the timing, but also the cost of putting the cargo into orbit is of great importance. The Starliner can carry up to seven people. According to a NASA OIG report, the cost per seat for an astronaut can fluctuate widely depending on various factors. In particular, it will be influenced by the number of occupied places. The average cost of a flight per astronaut will be US $ 90 million.
Dragon's success
Space X's Dragon 2 or Crew Dragon project started a little later than Starliner, but has already bypassed it. By now, the bulk of the development work has been completed. Moreover, this year the first unmanned flight took place. Various work is now being carried out to support the first manned mission.
However, SpaceX has also repeatedly encountered difficulties of various kinds and has repeatedly revised the work schedule. In particular, test runs with load and people were repeatedly postponed. There were also technical difficulties and accidents. For example, on August 20, 2019, the first Dragon 2, which had previously flown into space, exploded during ground tests.
The unmanned flight of SpX-DM1 began on March 2, 2019. A few hours after takeoff, the spacecraft docked to the ISS. On March 8, the device returned to Earth. The total duration of the mission is just under 5 days. In December, a test launch is to take place to check the operation of the rescue system. This event will be carried out automatically.
The first manned flight of SpX-DM2 is planned by the development company for the 1st quarter of 2020. The Office of the Inspector General of NASA considers such plans unrealistic and expects launch only in the summer. As early as next year, SpaceX is going to perform the next Dragon 2 flights with cargo and people.
Depending on the configuration, the Crew Dragon should carry up to 4 or 7 people or 3-6 tons. According to NASA OIG estimates, the average cost of one seat on such a ship will be $ 55 million.
Against the background of the "Union"
Since 2011, NASA has been sending astronauts to the ISS with the help of Russian spacecraft of the Soyuz series, and this practice will take place until its own new developments are created and put into operation. Over the past several years, the timing of the abandonment of Soyuz has been repeatedly shifted in accordance with the changes in the CCDev / CCtCap schedules. In recent months, loud statements about the imminent abandonment of Russian equipment have been heard again, but the real situation looks different.
NASA has acquired 70 spaceships from Roscosmos since 2006, according to a recent report from the Office of the Inspector General. They spent $ 3, 9 billion on this. The seats cost from 21 to 86 million, with an average of $ 55 million. Negotiations are underway to buy two more seats for the next period. The appearance of this order is openly associated with the failure to meet the deadlines for their own projects.
In March of this year, against the backdrop of American tests, the leadership of Roscosmos revealed its views on current events. In particular, it was argued that the cost of a seat on the Soyuz in the range of $ 80 million allows it to compete with foreign ships. In addition, American companies do not have the opportunity to dump.
After the start of operation of Starliner and Crew Dragon products, Roskosmos plans to switch to barter. NASA will be able to book seats on the Soyuz in exchange for Starliner and Dragon seats. Such cooperation can be carried out without taking into account the cost of services, but it will remain mutually beneficial.
Waiting for "Federation"
In the foreseeable future, the current "Soyuz" will be replaced by the promising manned spacecraft "Federation" / "Eagle". To date, part of the work on this topic has been completed. Last spring, it was reported about the start of construction of the first flight model. The necessary research and testing is being carried out.
Due to objective difficulties, the work schedule was repeatedly adjusted. The unmanned flight tests were originally planned to be carried out in 2017. By now, they have been postponed to the 2023rd. After that, a flight with a crew will take place. By the end of the next decade, the organization of the first missions to fly around the moon is possible.
The transport version of the Federation will be able to carry up to 2 tons of payload. The manned spacecraft will be able to deliver up to 4 people to the ISS or to another target. The cost of space for an astronaut or the output of a kilogram of cargo remains unknown.
Manned race
Thus, by now an interesting situation has developed in the field of manned astronautics. Only Russia, represented by Roskosmos, has a spacecraft that has been in operation for a long time. The United States temporarily does not have such equipment, but is already working on a solution to this problem. Now the United States finds itself in the position of catching up. Their projects started quite late, and besides, they faced a lot of problems. As a result, the completion date had to be postponed several times, and real samples are still missing.
However, the situation is changing, and next year Boeing and SpaceX will send people into orbit. In addition, in their projects, advanced ideas are laid and implemented, due to which it is planned to ensure the growth of the main characteristics and create a reserve for the future. There is a risk that Soyuz will be lagging behind in the foreseeable future.
This is also the reason why we are creating a multipurpose ship of the next generation. The "Federation" will go into operation a few years after the American samples and, probably, will again provide an advantage over foreign partners.
It is important that now the competition between ships is not only in terms of characteristics, but also in terms of cost. Even older designs can have cost-effectiveness advantages. The data on the cost of seats in ships, provided by NASA OIG, emphasize the specifics of this confrontation.
In fact, there is a real race in the field of manned astronautics, in which organizations and companies from several countries participate. While its participants are competing for orders from the space departments of their countries. According to various forecasts, in the future, current developments may contribute to the development of space tourism. Who will be the winner of such a race is unknown. However, it is clear what the prize will be for the winner. And it's clearly worth the effort and investment.
