The Uralvagonzavod corporation intends to present a new T-95 tank at the Russian Expo Arms-2010 arms exhibition. These plans may be hindered by the RF Ministry of Defense, whose representatives announced the closure of development work in this area. Instead of the T-95, which was outdated even before its birth, the military proposes a further modernization of the production model of the T-90. Experts consider this point of view to be at least controversial. But, as the RusBusinessNews columnist found out, this discussion is meaningless, since Uralvagonzavod's debts amount to tens of billions of rubles, and production is hopelessly outdated.
State armaments program for 2007-2015 provides for the delivery of 630 modernized tanks to the Russian Armed Forces and 770 fundamentally new ones. Rearmament should begin in 2011. It was by this time that the Ural Design Bureau of Transport Engineering (part of the Uralvagonzavod NPK OJSC) promised to present the fourth generation T-95 combat vehicle and an improved model of the serial T-90 with a new turret, cannon and improved fire control system.
In April 2010, it became clear that the program would fail. Deputy Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Vladimir Popovkin told reporters that it was decided to stop the development work on the T-95, since in the twenty years that they have been going on, the tank is hopelessly outdated. The question of whether funds will be allocated for the development of a modern combat vehicle remained without comment. The developer's representatives claim that they have no funds for R&D.
The industrialists also did not cope with the supply of modernized tanks to the army: the improved model of the T-90 will not be ready until the end of 2010. This means that Uralvagonzavod will be able to produce 630 tanks at best in six years - if, of course, all export contracts are curtailed. Deliveries abroad are unlikely to be stopped, as there are countries willing to buy the T-90. The manufacturer's capacities are not enough to supply tanks both to the Russian army and for export.
The decision to close the "Project 195" (T-95) caused surprise in the expert community. The fact is that a month earlier, a representative of the Russian Defense Ministry, General Vladimir Goncharov, said at a meeting of the Sverdlovsk Union of Defense Industries that the T-90 is yesterday's machine, and Uralvagonzavod, in order not to be left without orders, should urgently develop a new generation tank. Other high-ranking leaders of the Russian army also spoke about the impossibility of modernizing the main combat characteristics of military equipment developed in the 70s.
The head of the analytical department of the Institute of Political and Military Analysis, Alexander Khramchikhin, does not exclude that the T-95 could become a victim of intrigues - more commercial than political. The essence of this undercover struggle, however, is completely incomprehensible, given the fact that the T-90 is certainly outdated.
Andrei Frolov, a researcher at the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, suggests that General Popovkin may have made a reservation: the project for the production of the T-95 is not closed, but is stopped for a while until the 1500-horsepower engine and a number of other components are developed. The 1000 hp power unit used on the T-90. obviously too weak for a new tank. However, even if the deputy minister of defense did not make a reservation, the expert believes, in any case, his statements should be treated very carefully: another general will come, and the position may change.
The problem, according to A. Frolov, is different: Russia has not yet decided what kind of war it should be ready for. For local conflicts it is quite enough, the expert believes, and the modernized T-90, which is why it is in steady demand in a number of Asian countries. The export potential of this tank has not yet been exhausted: Libya, Turkmenistan and a number of other countries are showing interest in it. Participation in a global modern war will require a fundamentally different approach to the development of new technology. The previous setting - whoever has thicker armor and more powerful gun, will win the war, no longer works. The most modern tank, without air cover and including it in the battle control system, becomes an easy prey for an advanced enemy. Therefore, developed countries pay much attention to the means of protecting combat vehicles from homing weapons.
Russia cannot boast that it is capable of calculating and hitting anti-tank weapon detection and targeting systems. Accordingly, it is not ready for a global war. But there is a desire to join the ranks of highly developed countries - at least in order to be present on the world arms market. The lack of funds for R&D, however, puts the Russian military in a situation of permanent choice between preparing for a local or global war. The lack of a military strategy significantly complicates the answer to the question of what kind of tank the Russian army needs. This creates additional problems for Uralvagonzavod, which is going through hard times.
The enterprise, which produced up to 1200 tanks a year during the Soviet era, today lives mainly on civilian products. With the onset of the crisis, the construction equipment mastered by the plant was not in demand on the market, and JSC Russian Railways began to impose strict requirements on the quality of wagons. At the end of 2008, the plant sent 284 gondola cars with a new bogie to railway workers. In 2009, Russian Railways ordered 1,500 such gondola cars, but, as the press service of UVZ notes, the crisis prevented their purchase. Only 305 gondola cars were manufactured. Sales of traditional rolling stock were not very successful either. Uralvagonzavod faced an acute shortage of orders. In 2009, the company's debt reached 66 billion rubles, which is why it was losing 30 million rubles a day on servicing interest. In April 2010, according to Oleg Sienko, general director of UVZ, the debt was reduced to 26 billion, but the problem of orders remained - including for military products.
The head of the Rosoboronzakaz office in the Urals region, Sergei Perestoronin, said that Uralvagonzavod fulfilled the three-year contract for the supply of 189 tanks to the Russian army in 2008-2010 almost completely in the first two years. The new contract, which, most likely, will also be three years old, has not yet been received by the dealership. There is, accordingly, no money, although the Russian government has promised to transfer up to 80% of the funds for the implementation of the state defense order in the first quarter of the year.
Andrei Frolov believes that money in one form or another will still go to UVZ, and the plant will produce 100-120 tanks in 2010. These volumes will in no way change the balance of the Russian army. Alexander Khramchikhin has no doubts that no one is going to implement the state armament program for 2007-2015, and therefore it is absolutely impossible to say what the state defense order for UVZ will be.
The position of Uralvagonzavod became even more uncertain after the demand of the Russian Defense Ministry to reduce the cost of weapons and military equipment by 15%. At the same time, metallurgists announced an increase in prices for their products by an average of 20%. Oleg Sienko told reporters that the company will have to lay off employees in order to reduce costs.
Today the plant is forced to pay 8 billion rubles a year on loan obligations, which makes it extremely difficult to implement investment projects. Production at Uralvagonzavod is extremely outdated: even the products are painted by hand. Currently, UVZ is "torturing" the installation of a new painting line and replacing single machines where it is urgently needed. The general director of the enterprise claims that patching the holes will not be able to fix the situation: a new concept for the production of products from start to finish is needed.
Currently, projects are being considered for deep modernization and development of the metallurgical facilities existing in the corporation. The option of building workshops from scratch is also not excluded, because due to poor-quality casting, the plant incurs significant costs and loses sales markets. The problem, however, is the lack of money for the project. State money comes very slowly: the 10 billion rubles promised by Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin back in September 2009 were transferred to UVZ's bank account only recently.
It is noteworthy that it was the untimely funding of R&D that dramatically delayed the development of a new generation tank and made the T-95 unnecessary for anyone.
