The transfer of a group of Russian Aerospace Forces to Syria and the subsequent start of an operation to destroy terrorist facilities seriously surprised the whole world. In just a couple of weeks, the Russian armed forces created an aviation group of the necessary strength, and also ensured its interaction with other structures. As a result, since the end of September, dozens of Russian planes have been destroying facilities of terrorist organizations, and experts and the public have been discussing the progress of the operation, noting its high effectiveness.
For many, the start of the operation in Syria came as a surprise. Nevertheless, experts and amateurs of military affairs soon gathered their thoughts and began to analyze the actions of the Russian armed forces. In the domestic and, what is even more interesting, in the foreign press, theses about the growing military power of Russia and the way out of the crisis of past years are increasingly being expressed. In addition, some publications make attempts to “reassure” their readers, hinting or explicitly saying that not all the problems of the Russian army have been successfully resolved and that its state is still far from ideal.
A good example of this approach to coverage of the situation is the recent (October 20) article of the American edition of The National Interest entitled Not So Scary: This Is Why Russia's Military Is a Paper Tiger.). The author of this publication, Dave Majumdar, made an attempt to analyze the state of the Russian armed forces and tried to compose the most objective, in his opinion, picture. The title of the article allows you to immediately understand what conclusions the journalist came to.
The author reveals the essence of his publication in its very first lines. The article begins with a thesis that can hardly be called controversial. D. Majumdar notes that Moscow's "military adventure" in Syria demonstrates that the power of the Russian army has grown significantly in comparison with the catastrophic situation in the mid-nineties. Nevertheless, the journalist reminds that the Russian armed forces still face a host of problems.
Majumdar recalls that the most efficient in the Russian armed forces are the strategic missile forces, combat aircraft and marines. All these troops have been actively modernized in recent years, which had a positive effect on their condition. However, other branches of the armed forces and branches of the military, according to the American journalist, still have to rely on poorly trained conscripts and outdated materiel released in Soviet times. This means that the modernization of the Russian army is proceeding unevenly.
The author recalls the history of past decades. In the early nineties, shortly after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russian defense spending set a historic anti-record, dropping to lows. The result was the destruction of the defense industry and a sharp drop in defense capability. Subsequently, the Russian authorities made various plans to restore the lost opportunities. In the late nineties and early 2000s, official Moscow has repeatedly declared its desire to reform the armed forces and industry, but real steps in this direction have hardly been taken. D. Majumdar considers the two catastrophes of the wars in Chechnya and the insufficient effectiveness of the Russian troops during the operation to force Georgia to peace in 2008 as the result of all these events.
One of the main reasons for those problems was a lack of funding. In addition, according to the American journalist, the Russian army is faced with a shortage of conscripts with good training and the necessary motivation. According to the author, in Soviet times, every fifth division of the army did not meet the requirements of combat effectiveness and only met them by 50-75%. In case of a threatened situation or war, the call of reservists was envisaged, although it would take some time to fully fulfill all the requirements for the number of personnel.
The Soviet system performed well during the Cold War. However, it no longer fully meets modern requirements. As an example of this, D. Majumdar cites the events of August 2008. Then, for actions on the territory of South Ossetia, it was necessary to collect "special troops" from those units that could fulfill the assigned tasks. Thus, the total size of the army made it possible to count on an easy victory, but in reality the operation was associated with a host of problems.
After the War of the Three Eights, the Russian leadership decided to reform and modernize the armed forces. Later on, part of the army was rebuilt according to the "new model". Nevertheless, the author notes, more than two-thirds of the armed forces, primarily the ground forces, still use the old draft model and exploit the material part of Soviet production. Moreover, most of the equipment involved in the Syrian operation is modernized versions of the samples created in the seventies of the last century.
The Russian army is gradually switching to a new method of manning, but it will take a long time to completely abandon the draft. According to the author of The National Interest, currently only a quarter of the Russian ground forces are fully staffed with well-trained professional military personnel. These contract soldiers, although not trained to Western standards, are classified as rapid reaction forces.
In addition, the Russian command radically revised the process of training and education of professional military personnel, taking into account Western methods. Also, some organizational measures were taken. In particular, the bloated management apparatus has been reduced, command structures have been simplified, and logistics have been streamlined. Some of the "Soviet" type formations were reorganized into new type brigades, which in their concept are very similar to the brigades of the US armed forces.
Nevertheless, according to D. Majumdar, the reforms of the Russian army have not yet reached their ultimate goal. In addition, their further implementation will be difficult due to some problems. First of all, these are low oil prices and sanctions from foreign countries.
The author admits that the Russian armed forces are successfully solving one of their main problems related to personnel training. However, immediately after that, he moves on to another topic, in the context of which, according to him, Russia is only a pale shadow of the Soviet Union. This is the defense industry.
After the collapse of the USSR, independent Russia experienced a serious crisis, one of the results of which was the collapse and degradation of the defense industry. Due to economic and political problems, the country lost time and lagged behind in a number of important areas. For example, the Russian industry is seriously lagging behind the western one in the field of high-precision weapon technologies, additional aviation equipment units or radar stations with an active phased antenna array. In addition, D. Majumdar believes that this list can be continued.
Another weak point is shipbuilding. Modern Russia is unable to build large ships, including aircraft carriers. In addition, the industry uses outdated techniques and technologies. In the future, however, Russian shipbuilding can restore all its former capabilities and master new technologies for itself, but this will take a long time.
The author of the article Not So Scary: This Is Why Russia's Military Is a Paper Tiger also notes an unusual approach to the procurement of modern military equipment, some of the features of which may be cause for doubt. For example, he doubts the reality of building 2,300 main Armata tanks by 2020. In the case of the Air Force, purchases of a relatively small number of combat aircraft take place. Su-30M2, Su-30SM, Su-35S and Su-34 are being built in boutique-sized quantities. Although all of these aircraft are developments of the Su-27 platform, the low degree of standardization can complicate their operation and maintenance. Purchases of various modifications of the MiG-29 fighter also affect logistics. In addition, three new types of aviation equipment for the armed forces are being developed. At the same time, it is not completely clear whether the military department will be able to find funding for new programs.
Having touched upon the topic of updating the Aerospace Forces, the journalist returned to the operation in Syria. He notes that Russian troops, demonstrating high activity in the destruction of the enemy, use a small number of modern guided weapons. In addition, Su-30SM fighters have not yet appeared in the frame with modern air-to-air missiles. It is possible that modern weapons like the R-77 missile were developed and put into production, but they are purchased in small quantities.
The navy also has problems, with the exception of its submarine forces. The Russian fleet began operating the latest Borey-class submarines armed with ballistic missiles. In addition, multipurpose boats of the Yasen project are under construction. These submarines really pose a danger to a potential enemy. In addition, the author notes the pace of construction of submarines. Last year alone, two strategic and three multipurpose submarines were laid down. At the same time, D. Majumdar doubts that Russia will be able to build equipment at such a pace for a long time. In this context, one should also not forget the modernization of existing submarines.
While the Russian submarine fleet poses a great danger to a potential adversary, the state of the surface forces leaves much to be desired. Ships need full modernization, and besides, they don't take part in cruises too often. As the best example of the state of the surface forces of the Russian Navy, an American journalist cites the aircraft-carrying cruiser "Admiral of the Fleet of the Soviet Union Kuznetsov", which is the only Russian ship of its class. The author notes that this ship is prone to breakdowns at the most unexpected times, including during cruises. For this reason, a tugboat is always present in the same ship group with a cruiser, which, in the event of a breakdown, will be able to return it to the base.
Nevertheless, D. Majumdar does not argue with the fact that Russia is still building new ships. However, the pace of modernization of the navy is still insufficient.
At the end of his article, the author of The National Interest admits that Russia has made great strides in overcoming the crisis that began after the collapse of the Soviet Union. However, to fully restore all the capabilities of the army and industry will have to go a long way, which will only be completed by 2030 or later. But even in this case, Russia will not become the USSR with its population and production base, which allowed it to be a "juggernaut". And even if all the reforms are successfully completed, Russia, according to the author, will not be able to compete with the United States and its allies. Naturally, official Moscow will continue to modernize its armed forces. However, Russian military power, with the exception of strategic nuclear forces, is currently only an illusion. This is a "paper tiger".
At first glance, The National Interest's article appears to be an attempt to reassure readers and instill a sense of security in them. Indeed, in recent years, the Russian armed forces have managed to carry out several unexpected operations that have surprised the whole world. First, the appearance of "polite people" in the Crimea, which no one expected and could not predict, and now a covert transfer of aircraft to Syria with subsequent reports on the successful destruction of dozens of enemy targets.
In addition, numerous news about the creation, production and supply of various weapons and military equipment, including the "premiere" of several new combat vehicles at the May 9 parade, can be ranked as a cause for concern. It is unlikely that all this news will be able to leave a foreign man in the street indifferent. Some part of the foreign public quite expectedly reacts to such events with serious apprehension.
In this case, it becomes necessary for the appearance of reassuring statements by officials or publications in the press. It is necessary that the authorities tell the general public something pleasant and not at all frightening. In this case, stories about the "paper tiger" turn out to be a good tool for calming the public.
However, one cannot fail to note another feature of Dave Majumdar's article. The journalist is not at all cunning when he says that the Russian armed forces have a lot of problems that have yet to be solved in the future. The collapse of the Soviet Union and the economic problems of the past decades have seriously affected the country's military power, industry and social sphere. Solving these problems in parallel with the development of other areas is more than a difficult task, and this is not at all surprising.
Within the framework of the current State Armaments Program, calculated until 2020, the defense industry and the Ministry of Defense will have to radically update the material part of the armed forces. In accordance with the existing plans, the share of new weapons and equipment should reach 75%, and in some areas, 90-100%. In addition, there are plans for the development of industry and a number of other support programs.
Naturally, the implementation of all existing plans will be associated with serious difficulties. Nevertheless, their implementation will significantly increase the country's defense capability, as well as finally pull the army and industry out of the pit into which it fell two decades ago. The result of all current actions will be a well-armed and trained army with modern weapons and equipment.
As for the artistic image in the title of the article, it slightly spoils the impression of the author's analytical work. He seems to focus on the fact that the author of the article tried not only to analyze the situation, but also to reassure the reader, including with the help of beautiful phrases or clichés. In addition, the heading used is not quite true to reality. "Paper Tiger", despite all the problems, continues to gain strength, as well as bombing and destroying terrorists with cruise missiles from warships.
