Since the 90s, when General Atomics Aeronautical Systems (GA-ASI) MQ-1/9 Predator / Reaper drones were first used in the conflicts of the former Yugoslavia, MALE UAVs (some of them were able to carry bombs and missiles) changed the conduct of hostilities, performing tasks such as reconnaissance and surveillance, close air support and relay communications.
The United States and Israel were pioneers in the development and use of these platforms, and it was not a simple adaptation. The U. S. Secretary of the Army said in September 2019:
"Ten years ago with the Predator, it took a lot of effort to build it into the military agenda."
Extension
UAVs, including MALE drones, are being deployed all over the world. These systems were used by all parties to the conflict in the Caucasus, Iraq, Libya, Syria and Yemen, and most often with an armed load.
Israel reportedly exported 167 MALE drones in 2008-2018, mainly IAI's Heron and Elbit's Hermes, in addition to those manufactured for its own military. The country also exported UAV production technologies to Azerbaijan, Brazil, Kazakhstan and Turkey.
From 2008 to 2018, China exported about 163 MALE-type UAVs capable of carrying weapons. Its CASC CH-3/4 Rainbow series drones were sold to Algeria, Ethiopia, Iraq, Jordan, Myanmar, Nigeria, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkmenistan, the United Arab Emirates and Zambia, while the first two CH-4 drones from an Indonesian order were delivered in September 2019, which marked the beginning of the market penetration of this country. The upgraded CH-5 is being offered to many countries, which has prompted China to expand production capacity at a highly automated facility in Taizhou, which is reportedly capable of producing 200 UAVs a year.
MALE UAVs of the Wing Loong I / II series of AVIC corporation (the export version of the Gong-ji GJ-1 is operated by the Chinese military) have been offered on the foreign market since 2014 along with sets of weapons and sensors for them. The sale in 2017 to an unnamed customer of the Wing Loong II drones was announced as the largest single purchase of Chinese weapons to date. A new Chinese twin-tail UAV Tengden TB001 is reportedly under development, a prototype of which took off in 2019.
China, along with the platforms themselves, also exported technologies; an agreement was concluded with the Saudi company King Abdulaziz City for Science and Technology for the licensed production of CH-4 and other models. The MALE-class Saqr 1 drone, considered a local project, borrowed technology from Chinese and other sources.
China sells MALE drones for about four times the price of fully loaded Predator / Reaper drones ($ 4-16 million) and without American restrictions. But not all users seem to have been satisfied with this; Jordan has put some of its UAVs up for resale. Some Chinese export deals, such as sales to Saudi Arabia and the UAE, came only after the US rejected requests for weaponized Predator / Reaper variants. “Unfortunately, the proliferation of Chinese UAVs means that each such sale will have a big impact on our country's demand for staying in this area,” said the president of the Aerospace Industry Association last year. "We cannot make an oath promise that we will always be the preferred partner."
Hoping for your strength
Other countries are full of ambitious plans, aiming to significantly increase export sales. For example, the Yabhon United 40 (Smart Eye 1) drone from the UAE company ADCOM was sold to Nigeria, Russia and other buyers, and Algeria received the Smart Eye option 2. The UAE also offers technology transfer and R&D participation; Malaysia is one of those countries that are jointly developing UAV technology.
Turkey, which has received Israeli UAV technology in the past, has not made much progress in exporting its TAI Anka / Aksungar drones. A presidential decree on the allocation of funding, published in September 2019, identified the development of UAVs as a high priority. The agreement, concluded in 2018 with the Indonesian company PTDI, included the development of the Elang Hitam (Black Eagle) platform based on the Turkish Anka drone.
The Orion drone of the Russian company Kronstadt Group has experience of combat use in Syria and Ukraine. The Orion-E variant reportedly received its first overseas order in 2019 from an unnamed Middle Eastern country.
Korean companies, united in the Aerospace Industry Association, have developed several MALE-class UAVs: Next Generation Corps-level UAVs, Division-level UAVs, and Medium Altitude Endurance UAVs (as we can see, the Koreans before entering the international market are not particularly puzzled by its designation). The sensor kit integration agreement was announced by Korean Air and Raytheon in October 2019. The growing importance of MALE platforms reflects the 2018 agreement with North Korea, which does not allow such UAVs to fly within a certain distance from the demilitarized zone.
India is developing the Rustom-2 drone, which first took off in 2016. It is reported that the development of this project is rather sluggish, moreover, one of the six prototypes crashed in November 2019.
Iran manufactures its own UAV Shahed 129, which can carry weapons and, according to some reports, includes technology of Chinese and Israeli origin. Iran pays special attention to the development and use of UAVs in order to compensate for the limitations associated with the use of its outdated manned combat aircraft.
Although a number of European military structures currently use MALE-class UAVs of American and Israeli origin, France, Germany, Italy and Spain are implementing the Euro MALE project (formerly MALE 2020) with the active participation of Airbus, Dassault and Leonardo. Its configuration provides for the installation of two engines in order to comply with German flight safety requirements. It was reported that the drone will be ready to fly in 2024 and enter service in 2027-2029, while the production of Falco Xplorer - a MALE drone based on the Leonardo Falco series - could begin as early as 2020.
Under control?
The proliferation of MALE-class UAVs in the world for the most part occurred without the participation of well-known aerospace companies from the USA, Europe or Russia, despite the fact that they dominate the world military aviation markets. To some extent, this reflects the constraints imposed by the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR). Since their inception in 1987, members of the MTCR have not distinguished UAVs from missiles, which must be controlled if they (drones) comply with tight range and load limits.
Category I systems (with a range of more than 300 km and a payload of over 500 kg) were subject to "an absolutely strict presumption of export ban." MALE UAVs fall into this category, for example, the Predator / Reaper series drones and most Heron models, as well as drones. unable to carry weapons, such as the Orion of Aurora Flight Systems. As a result, “MTCR partners are largely deprived of much of this burgeoning market, unable to fully exploit the commercial advantages of this growing sector due to the high barriers imposed by the presumption of failure of the MTCR for all Category I systems.” (From Assistant Secretary of State Statement, February 2019).
Although the Predator XP and some of the degraded Heron and Hermes variants have been categorized as Category II, they also face MTCR limitations. The ban on the sale of MALE UAVs to allies (even those who are allowed to buy combat aircraft) was perceived as a kind of distrust.
However, the export of MALE UAVs from manufacturers not included in the MTCR is not limited by its terms. A spokesman for the Defense Cooperation Office of the Department of Defense said the restrictions discredit US cooperation and security policies and that "security cooperation is our priority tool for building mutual trust."
Since the 2018 MTCR meeting, the United States has spearheaded efforts to delineate missiles and UAVs and remove the latter from Category I. MALE) and opposing shipments from China and other countries outside the MTCR.
This expansion of the range of conventional arms deliveries made direct commercial UAV sales possible for the first time. Previously, all such transactions had to take place under the Law on the Sale of Weapons and Military Equipment to Foreign States. It also changed the definition of drones capable of using a laser designator, allowing them to be placed in the same category as unarmed aircraft.
The United States has tightened its end-use monitoring and policy prohibiting arming UAVs that have been sold without the ability to carry bombs and missiles. In April 2018, the director of the National Trade Council called these changes "an important catalyst for strengthening American industry, organizing our national security, and strengthening our international cooperation."
During the Obama administration, the export of armed MALE UAVs was difficult even for close US allies, and to other countries was almost impossible. Starting in February 2015, unarmed MALE UAVs were transferred to a wider group, subject to guarantees of proper intended use. This meant a change to the previous policy that restricted the export of armed Reaper drones to the UK. The 2015 doctrine effectively prohibited the export of MALE UAVs to existing United States allies.
Possible precedents
India could set a precedent if the first delivery of US MALE UAVs to a customer who is not a contractual partner takes place; the country was admitted as the 35th member of the MTCR in 2016. In order to meet the needs of the Indian armed forces for MALE category drones, Israel, for its part, proposed a modified version of the Heron TR XP, which perfectly meets the definitions of category II MTCR and will not have American components.
But Delhi nevertheless requested 22 Guardian UAVs (unarmed version of the Reaper) of GA-ASI from the United States. At the same time, he did not request the transfer of technology and partial localization of production, although this has always been an important element of aviation procurement in the past. A State Department spokesman said last fall that "co-production is not a reason for partners to break off strong relationships."
A possible change in co-production policy could reflect the current struggle for an order from Malaysia for the delivery of about six aircraft. This is currently the first direct competition between Guardian, Wing Loong II, CH-5, Anka and Falco drones. The spokesman for the State Department expressed the opinion that the US strategy should reflect that when selling
“We need to talk less about the actual platform and more about participation in joint production, coordination and offsetting. In the technology export market, the trend is for allies and partners to be more creative.”
Despite the softening of the policy in 2018, a representative of GA-ASI said:
“MTCR is a very big headache for us. There are only a small number of customers to whom we are able to export our products. There is a relentless debate about how the US administration could change export policies, including the MTCR. We support any action in this sense, because it will help us sell to some countries to which export is not approved."
The 2018 policy has not removed many other barriers to US drone exports, some of which other MTCR members disagree. The "Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act" defined the US reluctance to export any sensitive technology to countries that buy Russian weapons. Its influence - not yet directly applicable to MALE UAVs - was demonstrated by the example of disagreements with Turkey in connection with its purchase of Russian S-400 anti-aircraft systems.
In this context, the list of countries of the US Trade Mission that are unable to provide adequate intellectual property protection includes many states involved in the production and procurement of MALE drones. Export controls of the Wassenaar Agreement for conventional weapons and dual-use goods and technologies could also get in the way of such countries. The United States is interested in keeping all this up to date so as not to have problems with the export of dual-use technologies to China.
Advanced control
One potential path to victory for non-regulatory market participants with cheaper products is to offer options with improved technology that are not affected by the MTCR rules. One of the most significant upgrades to the future capabilities of the MALE UAV is the ability to fly through and operate in controlled airspace using an airborne collision avoidance and detection system. This is especially important for maritime operations in international airspace and at lower altitudes (leading to the installation of anti-icing, lightning protection and updated avionics). But the use of over-the-horizon channels for communication with control stations in the absence of reliable satellite communications remains a big problem.
The controlled airspace system developed by GA-ASI was implemented on non-military state-owned UAVs and then was offered for export on the Guardian drone. The UK program to replace the Reaper with GA-ASI's Protector drones by 2024 reflects the need to implement such capabilities. MALE UAVs using the system are undergoing civilian certification in the US and UK, a move the company calls "the future of unmanned aircraft."
China says its export UAVs are already capable of operating in controlled airspace, while the UAE is developing a similar system and offering to work with foreign partners to market its MALE-class platforms. For its part, Israel has offered a communications interface between air traffic control and drone ground stations and is offering these capabilities for export.
Declaration of independence
Promising MALE UAVs, especially those designed for maritime and expeditionary operations, can use a rotary propeller or similar structures for vertical take-off and landing. The MUX (Marine UAV Experimental) is expected to be tested by the United States Marine Corps in the mid-2020s, where it will assess the capabilities of this platform, which can operate from amphibious assault ships and prepared sites on the coast, with reduced requirements for logistics, deck space (always in short supply on a warship) and headcount. The unmanned Bell V-247 Vigilant tiltrotor, for example, has folding wings and is able to fit in ship's helicopter hangars.
Today, another important factor is survivability, since the situation in Afghanistan and Iraq, where air defense systems were practically absent, is unlikely to repeat itself. Ukraine claims that at least 10 Russian MALE-class Orion UAVs were shot down over its territory in 2014-2018, including one shot down by a Mi-24 attack helicopter. In December 2019, Russian air defense systems also shot down two drones over Libya: the Italian Reaper and an undefined US-made model.
In order for Reaper drones to remain out of the reach of missile defense, GA-ASI is developing an independent Sparrowhawk project. This is a small UAV weighing 91 kg, which can be launched and returned during flight, refueling and re-launched, which will allow the MALE UAV to become carriers. Prototype testing is scheduled to begin this year.
Improving surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities
Another problem associated with the MALE UAV is information overload. They can transmit a volume of sensory data (especially full-frame, cinematic video) that exceeds the ability of users to analyze it. In the conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq, such a video in large volumes was provided to the command staff (making it possible to directly observe the hostilities at a great distance), for which it received the nickname "Predator porn" from the American military. According to some estimates, 85% of all video collected in this way was not used and remained unclaimed in the lower echelons.
In order to solve the problem, in April 2017, the United States launched the Maven project, the first practical use of which in combat conditions occurred in 2018. It uses artificial intelligence along with advanced machine learning to analyze the video stream. After initial testing on the Special Forces TUAS UAV in 2019 as part of the Agile Condor program, the developed software was used to analyze sensor flows from Predator / Reaper drones. “We have worked closely with Special Operations Forces to understand how to automate manual tasks and gain capabilities with higher levels of autonomy,” said a US Air Force official.
But artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to revolutionize much more than the method of analysis. It allows you to create "smart" networks, including UAVs, changing their communication channels and flight trajectories for rapidly changing situations and threats, and also makes it possible to conduct operations with a higher level of autonomy.
Cloud-based capabilities allow us to move away from the model of direct transmission of full-frame video from UAVs and move to a limited number of receiving elements - for example, a headquarters or an airplane, which better suits user needs and rapidly changing operational requirements. Former Deputy Secretary of Defense Robert Work once said that "cloud technology has excellent military innovation potential as well as potential for use in the Third Counterbalance Strategy, affecting virtually every aspect of warfare."
The AI-integrated cloud can replace live Predator porn video from drones with just the right amount of data that contains all the information you need without overwhelming or confusing the individual user.
The development of AI capabilities aimed at radically changing UAV operations is not limited to the United States. A Boeing Australia spokesman said in September 2019 that "they will develop and test AI cognitive algorithms so that they can gather information in a denied environment and perform improved tactics in hostile space."
The United Arab Emirates also prioritizes AI technology, while China's vast experience in AI gives it potential benefits that could be made available to overseas customers. The US Secretary of Defense said in this regard that "Chinese arms manufacturers are selling drones, claiming their autonomy, including the ability to deliver targeted lethal strikes."
Networked future
The Chief of Staff of the US Air Force, in turn, noted: “The future war will not be won by platforms, it will be won by networks. We need to focus on a network-centric approach.”
If the United States can convince potential customers that the drones it exports can increase the level of network-centric military operations, then this could be the most reliable barrier to the proliferation of MALE-class UAVs from manufacturers outside the MTCR.
For decades, the United States has built a model for effective networked military operations in which MALE-class drones have an important role to play. Competitors have demonstrated the ability to supply similar devices, but still not with the level of connectivity that would allow them to be called truly effective. For decades to come, MALE-class drones are likely to remain a key component of combat networks in the United States and some other countries.
