What is happening today around the Russian transport aviation causes very ambiguous feelings. To put it mildly, sheer confusion, and in everything: forecasts, figures, statements, official messages.
This is at least a concern, because if there is such a mess in their heads, then what is really happening on the ground?
Let's start with information about the creation of a Russian super-heavy military transport aircraft.
In general, the trend of recent years is cool to promise, and then quietly keep silent about the fulfillment of the obligations assumed. There are so many reports that by two thousand … the eleventh year we will have something that will make the whole world shudder …
And until this "twentieth" year still have to live, perhaps no one will remember what was loudly promised there today.
And today our Minister of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov in an interview with Interfax says that it turns out that the Ilyushin Design Bureau is in full swing developing the Russian version of the An-124 Ruslan super-heavy aircraft, which was named An-124-100M.
Do you understand everything? For me, for example, not everything. It so happens that what he has heard raises a cloud of questions.
Firstly, why does the Russian aircraft, which is being created in the Russian Ilyushin Design Bureau, have not the Russian index “Il”, but the Ukrainian “An”? We have already seen the reaction of the Ukrainian side (by the way, quite natural) with a protest on this matter.
It's like calling Grant a Passat, it won't go like a Volkswagen.
Secondly. Whether this An-124-100M project, which is still incomprehensible to the mind, has anything to do with the development of the so-called STVTS (almost like PAK DA), that is, a "super-heavy military transport aircraft", which was supposed to be a replacement Ruslanov?
And what is the real state of development now? Or is it development?
Since the versions lie slightly on different planes, it seems that the minister does not fully control the situation.
Let's turn it back a little along the timeline.
Just a year ago, Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov, who is known to us as an expert on ambiguous statements, said that even research work on this topic had not yet begun. And that work on a super-heavy aircraft at the Ilyushin Design Bureau will begin in accordance with the state armaments program after 2025, that is, at the end of the GPV for 2018-2027.
This, by the way, was quite understandable. The start of development at the end of one GPV so that in the new program normal funding for R&D and R&D is already planned.
And suddenly such a delivery!
In May of this year, it suddenly becomes known that, it turns out, research work on STVTS has already been successfully completed! Moreover, R&D has begun and is successfully moving forward and upward!
And it would be fine, Borisov said about this, no, you can read it all on the Ilyushin BC website. In the annual report.
"As part of the development work on the creation of STVTS, the pre-contractual work phase has been completed, a state contract has been concluded for the implementation of 3-5 stages of the STVTS R&D project."
Somehow not entirely clear, right?
June 2019. Information from Nikolai Talikov, General Designer of the Ilyushin Design Bureau. Talikov says that the company is starting to create a new aircraft to replace the An-124. And it should be ready by 2025-2026, as this is predetermined by the deadlines set by the Ministry of Defense.
On the one hand, in terms of timing, this is quite consistent with what was written above. But in fact …
But in fact, let's seriously think about which plane Talikov is talking about? About the mythical and incomprehensible An-124-100M, which, perhaps, exists only in the plans of Manturov and Borisov, or about the Il-106?
I am sure that Talikov is talking about the Il-106, of which he, in fact, is the chief designer.
But the Il-106 is not the An-124-100 at all! This is a completely different aircraft, which, although being built as part of the project to replace the Ruslan, is a DIFFERENT aircraft!
By the way, not burdened with Ruslan's problems, because in Ukraine it is categorically against naming a Russian aircraft with a Ukrainian name, plus our refusal to provide service on Antonov, which means that An-124-100 may in the future receive restrictions on flights over the same Europe.
But back from politics to airplanes. And then the question arises: who to believe? And the second: so what about the plane?
It turns out that the words of Manturov and Talikov diverge at such an angle that, against your will, you might suspect someone of insincerity.
After all, the An-124-100 is in fact a glider from the Ukrainian Ruslan, in which it is planned to replace engines and avionics with Russian ones. IL-106 is completely our car. But another one. Which will not depend on unstable neighbors in terms of spare parts and components.
By the way, I also have doubts about the normal service provided by Antonov. Simultaneously with their losses in terms of qualified personnel.
The Il-106, on which Ilyushin has been working since the beginning of the 90s, is getting easier. And the trust "Ilyushin" is an order of magnitude more than "Antonov". Even in spite of the fact that Antonov specialized in large-tonnage aircraft. All this is in fact a thing of the past.
And therefore I will not hide the fact that I do not like the An-124-100 version much less than the Il-106.
Indeed, if you believe the numbers, the Il-106 is in no way inferior to the An-124, its declared parameters are about the same as in terms of range, as in terms of carrying capacity.
But there is a problem. Unfortunately, I very often mentioned her in historical materials, but here, and here everything is the same. No engine.
An-124 has it. D-18T, developed in the Zaporozhye design bureau "Progress". And it was produced in the same place, in Zaporozhye, at the Zaporozhye Machine-Building Plant, which today is a structural division of the Motor-Sich company.
Unfortunately, at the moment we do not have an engine capable of providing a thrust of 24,000 kgf or so, like the D-18T.
Yes, in Samara, they worked on the NK-93, which should be somewhat weaker than the DT-18T, but during tests it produced a power much higher than the declared one. In Perm, they worked on the most powerful PD-35, which was made on the basis of the PD-14, but in the end everything is still "stop".
But the Samara engine, despite the lower rated power, had an equally important advantage over the Ukrainian engine. There is such an indicator as the degree of bypass. This is the ratio of the volume of air passing along the external circuit and creating thrust to the volume of air entering the combustion chamber. The higher the bypass ratio, the higher the efficiency of the motor. For NK-93, it is 16.6 against 5.6 for DT-18T.
But, apparently, we lost the NK-93 as such. Somewhere in history. And from what is, alas, the rest are all inferior in power. And PS-90A (16 tons), and PD-14 (18 tons), when it is finished. Plus, for PD-14, a queue has already lined up from Kaliningrad to Perm. Many people need it. Manufacturers of MS-21, Tu-204, Il-276, Il-76MD-90A, and… Il-106 rely on this engine.
True, there is still some kind of engine. I will quote Nikolai Talikov again:
"To date, the United Engine Corporation has also started work on our aircraft (Il-106. - Author's note) and creates engines with thrust of 24-26 tons."
Again a mountain of questions. What company? Where? How far has the work progressed?
There are questions, no answers. True, there are announced terms. 2025th year. And that's all.
I suspect that the "secret" engine is the PD-35. Work on it seems to be going on, and this is exactly the engine that could solve the problem of a heavy transport aircraft, it does not matter, "Ana" or "Ila".
However, literally a month ago, the following sounded from the lips of the general designer of "Perm Motors" Alexander Inozemtsev:
“An-124 Ruslan heavy transport aircraft may receive a domestic engine in the future. It will not be PD-35, another engine, but from this family."
And how can this be understood?
So far there is only PD-14. There is its modification PD-18R (18 tons of thrust). On the basis of PD-14, they are trying to make PD-35. It is he, and not the PD-14/18, which is suitable for both the Il-106 and the An-124. It is this engine that is expected in the Ilyushin Design Bureau.
But it turns out that the PD-35 can not wait? Weird…
In Samara, in the very same Kuznetsov Design Bureau, where the NK-93 was developed, they seem to have begun work on the engine for the PAK DA. This work was called “RF Product”. Since the PAK DA is planned to be subsonic, in theory the engine will also fit into the PAK TA (transport aviation) program.
But how long will it take until the NK-32, on the basis of which a new engine is being created, is sawn through in Samara? NK-32 is a familiar and familiar Tu-160 engine. Supersonic, with afterburner. Rumor has it that the power of this engine will be somewhere between 18 and 30 tons. In principle, it's enough if everything is really in the middle, but …
When are we planning to move about PAK YES? That's right, by the end of the next GPV program. That is, in 10 years.
Will An-124 survive? I doubt. And the work must be completed by 2025. Again, something does not agree in the testimony.
What do we end up with?
As a result, we have several responsible persons (from the chief designer to the minister and the deputy prime minister) who cannot really agree on what they are voicing.
We have in the future two transport aircraft (An-124-100 and Il-106), which need engines. And there are engines that are not suitable for these aircraft. That is, PS-90 and PD-14. And the engines that might work if they existed in nature. This is NK-73, PD-35 and this incomprehensible new one.
But even superficially comprehending what is happening, you begin to understand that if officials of such a high rank do not have a picture of the future in their heads, then, accordingly, transport aviation is not expected in the future.
Complete confusion cannot produce a meaningful result, no matter what you say to the cameras. And alas, this is our reality today.
So we probably shouldn't wait for these strange plans to come true for heavy transport aircraft for military aviation. At least until our leaders come to one decision about what to do.
And only then do words have a chance to become real deeds. And not before.
