Economics is the most boring science. But everything changes when it comes to the cost of modern aviation systems.
Is it true that the Raptor superfighter stands like a bar of gold of the same mass?
How is the F-35 program doing? The light fighter, created as the "workhorse of the Air Force", is gradually overtaking its "older brother" F-22 in value. Or is it all just an illusion?
The cost of an hour of flight "Eurofighter Typhoon", according to various estimates, ranges from 15 to 40 thousand dollars - what is the reason for such a wide range of results?
Which combat aircraft is considered the most expensive in the world?
What determines the cost of aircraft?
How do the products of the domestic aviation industry look against the background of their western counterparts?
Prologue
The iron bird stands on the ground. Ambient temperature + 20 ° С. A light breeze tickles the grass on the airfield, filling the soul with peace and serenity.
In 10 minutes the plane will take an echelon at an altitude of 10,000 meters, where the temperature overboard will drop below minus 50 °, and the atmospheric pressure will be five times lower than at the Earth's surface. Any of the terrestrial "Mercedes" is guaranteed to stall in such conditions - and the plane still has to fly thousands of kilometers and complete the assigned task. Supersonic speeds, maneuvers in both planes, dangerous overloads - turbine blades burn but do not burn in a raging blue flame, drives and hydraulics hum, the necessary climatic conditions are maintained in the cockpit and avionics compartments.
Aviation is a true triumph of the human mind over the forces of nature. The spearhead of progress, where the best developments in the field of materials science, microelectronics, engine building and all related fields of science and technology have been implemented.
The winged ship is capable of controlling space for tens and hundreds of kilometers around. Modern optoelectronic systems allow a pilot to distinguish an armed person from an unarmed person from a great height, detect the coals of an extinguished fire or the trail of a passing car, and aim bombs and missiles with an accuracy of one meter. Super-maneuverability, thrust-to-weight ratio close to 1, controlled thrust vector, radars with an active phased antenna array (AFAR), technologies for reducing visibility. In view of its prohibitive characteristics, modern combat aviation is not a cheap "toy".
F-35 fighter sighting system
I risk killing the intrigue of the whole story, but the situation looks unambiguous: all modern combat aircraft from the "first line" (Su-35 fighters, Su-34 tactical bombers, export modifications F-15E - with a maximum takeoff weight of over 30 tons and full compliance generation 4+ requirements) have approximately the same cost.
With the same calculation method, a fully equipped aircraft of this level (excluding the cost of research and development, additional sets of spare parts and weapons), will cost the customer about $ 100 million per aircraft. Regardless of the developer, manufacturer and country in which this magnificent winged machine was created.
The light multipurpose Rafal, Eurofighter Typhoon and modern modifications of the F-16 are not far behind their "older brothers" - their cost on the world arms market averages $ 80 … 100 million. Even a small Swedish "Gripen" is unlikely will give it back cheaper. The only thing the customer saves on when choosing these aircraft is the labor intensity of maintenance and the cost of operating the F-16 and the Company is much lower than that of the interceptors and fighter-bombers of the “heavy class”.
F-16 multipurpose light fighter
There is a separate issue on the "fifth generation". With a similar calculation method, the cost of the F-22 Raptor fighter-interceptor will be ≈200 million dollars per unit. Of course, this figure does not include the cost of research and development work on the "fifth generation fighter" theme.
The lighter F-35 of the base modification "A" strives to get into the "price niche" for fighters of the "4+" generation. Otherwise, it does not have many advantages to successfully compete with modern modifications of the F-15E and 15SE, Silent Hornet, Rafale and Typhoon. It is expected that in the event of the start of large-scale production, the cost of the F-35A will not exceed $ 100 million. The deck modification and "vertical" will be 20 percent more expensive - however, these versions did not find interest in the world arms market.
Russian way
It is not possible to make an accurate comparison of the cost of Russian and foreign aircraft, due to the lack of any detailed information on pricing methods and insider peculiarities of the domestic aircraft industry. The only thing that is possible in this situation is to draw a number of general conclusions based on information from open sources and the obvious conditions of Russian reality.
Factors affecting the decline in the cost of Russian combat aircraft:
- a relatively low level of remuneration for specialists in the aviation industry - in comparison with their European and overseas counterparts;
- the relative scarcity of airborne electronic equipment (avionics). Whatever the manufacturers of domestic radio electronics say, today none of the aircraft in service with the Russian Air Force (or exported by Russia) has a radar with an active phased array. The remarkable N035 "Irbis" (Su-35 radar) is in fact a radar with PFAR on a gimbal, ie. with mechanical scanning in azimuth. Also, there are no domestic analogues of universal suspended sighting and navigation containers like LANTIRN, LITENING or SNIPER, used on all types of US and NATO combat aircraft. The range of domestic air-to-surface guided munitions is significantly limited.
The only thing that brightens up the gray days is the T-50 aircraft with tail number 55. The fifth flight prototype of the Russian "fifth generation" fighter, on which a complete set of the latest avionics is installed, incl. a radar with AFAR H036 and four additional AFAR located in the slats - there are no analogues of this system in the world. As, however, there are no serial T-50s yet.
On-board radar with AFAR "Zhuk-AE" (export). It is planned to equip MiG-35 fighters with these radars.
- lack of desire / need to create new production lines and renewal of funds. It is no secret that domestic aircraft are mostly assembled in workshops and production lines built in the days of the USSR. The management of the United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) would consider it an unjustified luxury to build a new plant for each new type of aircraft - like the manufacturing complex in Fort Worth, Texas, where the final assembly of the F-35 is carried out. The one and a half-kilometer conveyor at Fort Worth allows for the assembly of 360 fighters per year (this is the estimated delivery rate of the F-35 starting in 2017). The Russian aviation industry simply does not need such capacities - such production will never pay off in our country. Assembly of 10-20 fighters per year is easier to master in a piece mode, in production facilities left over from Soviet times - only partially replacing equipment and tools.
Factors affecting the increase in the cost of domestic aircraft:
- corruption. The low salaries of specialists are entirely "compensated" by the greed of certain individuals in the UAC leadership. However, the top management of Lockheed-Martin or the French Dassault Aviation is also not unselfish. All of them, one way or another, use their official position for personal gain. Ultimately, the exact amount of the contract depends on who, with whom and what was able to agree on.
- small-scale (piece) production. In this case, the scale effect disappears (a decrease in the cost of a unit of production with an increase in the scale of its production), which negatively affects the final cost of the product. Complex, high-tech industries are especially affected - the cost of an AFAR assembled in this way from thousands of individual transmitting and receiving modules skyrockets. Hand-stamped carbon wing parts are no less expensive.
- experiments with a controlled thrust vector. Ensuring the translational movement of parts under a significant load, in conditions of extremely high temperatures and an aggressive environment, while maintaining high reliability of the entire system, is an extremely difficult technical problem, whose solution requires special approaches in the design and creation of new materials. A difficult and long period of R&D, manufacturing and testing of workable prototypes, flight testing of aircraft with UHT / OVT engines is a laborious and costly process. Not to mention the operation of such a system in combat units. Sometimes the question arises - was the game worth the candle?
MiG-29K on the deck of the aircraft carrier "Vikramaditya"
We do not know how much Russian combat aircraft cost - this information is classified. But we can guess this using circumstantial evidence:
On March 12, 2010, a contract was signed for the supply to India of the second batch of 29 MiG-29K carrier-based fighters. The contract is worth $ 1.5 billion. Deliveries are planned to start in 2012.
- from messages of news agencies for 2010
Approximately $ 50 million per plane. In this case, we are talking about a light class fighter (with a maximum takeoff weight of 22.5 tons), not burdened with radars with AFAR and engines with UVT.
In such conditions, it will not be surprising if the cost of the most modern interceptor Su-35 goes off scale for $ 100 million.
The Su-34 tactical bomber (aka T-10V-1), built on the famous T-10 platform, which became the ancestor of the entire Su-aircraft family with indexes 27 and 30/35, is not at all cheaper. The maximum take-off weight of 45 tons and the presence of a unique titanium armored capsule are unlikely to simplify production and reduce the cost of this mighty aircraft.
It is curious that the information resource "Wikipedia" continues to issue a link to the news of 8 years ago, according to which the cost of production of one "Duck" was estimated at 1 billion rubles (≈32 million dollars - I am sure that even then the Su-34 plane cost much more expensive).
Entrance to the cockpit of the Su-34
The reports in the media look no less funny when, telling about the results of the outgoing year, the total number of combat aircraft entered into service with the Air Force is called, including the light Yak-130 trainer and the most powerful Su-34 and Su-35 aircraft systems. Moreover, the 10-ton "Yak" is simply incomparable with the aircraft from the "first line" - neither in cost nor in combat capabilities.
Modern aviation is extremely expensive. And high-quality aviation complexes are even more expensive.
How are things "with them"?
With all the variety of designs and the exorbitant appetites of managers of American aircraft building corporations, the overseas approach to estimating the cost of aircraft is striking in its transparency (an illusion?), Healthy logic and pragmatism.
Obviously, the cost of each system depends on the cost of its individual elements (WBS - Work Breakdown Structure), as well as the stages of manufacture and operation - if there is a need to calculate the cost of the entire life cycle of the system. From this moment the main thriller begins - the defining circumstance is the way of counting: how they thought and what was taken into account in their calculations.
What determines the cost of the plane. Below is a detailed explanation of the table
As a rule, the basic concept is “flyaway cost” - the cost of producing one aircraft, taking into account all the necessary materials, labor costs and the cost of the production line (scattered on everyone). It is this figure that prevails in many documents and official reports, since shows the lowest possible value compared to other counting methods.
The amount in the "flyaway cost" column caresses the eye and warms the soul, but the Pentagon buys equipment at the "weapon cost" (in a broader sense - "procurement cost") - the total cost of the combat system. Unlike the previous one, this calculation method takes into account such specific and invisible to the naked eye factors as:
- the cost of auxiliary equipment and tools that come with the aircraft;
- one-time costs under the contract (training course for pilots to control a new machine, installation and configuration of software, etc.);
- consultations and technical support from the manufacturer, a basic set of spare parts.
As a result, the cost of the aviation complex increases by about 40% compared to the basic part of the “flyaway cost”. The canonical example is the "flyaway cost" of the F / A-18E / F multipurpose fighter-bomber is $ 57.5 million, while its "weapon cost" is $ 80.4 million (data for 2012 financial year).
Weapon-hung F-15E
But this is not the limit. There are much more serious figures, for example "program acquisition cost" - the total cost of development and creation of an aviation complex, taking into account the cost of all R&D, construction of prototypes and the cost of passing factory and state tests. It is clear that the development of a new aircraft is extremely difficult and time-consuming, especially when it comes to such innovative machines as stealth bombers and fifth-generation fighters. Half of the funds allocated for the program are usually spent on research - subsequently, this amount is divided among everyone, increasing the cost of each fighter almost doubled compared to the "weapon / procurement cost".
The total cost of the program (R&D + cost of building a production line + cost of materials and labor to build each aircraft) is extremely popular in the media. It is she who is mentioned when the next one makes fun of the "invisible" F-22. With this method of calculation, the cost of the Raptor is currently $ 412 million per combat-ready aircraft - like an ingot of gold of the same mass!
However, R&D costs are subsequently returned in the form of new technologies in the field of aircraft construction, microelectronics and all related fields of science and technology. As the Yankees say: Money spent on the brain is never spent in vain.
The final stage of the tragicomedy is "life cycle cost" - the cost of the entire life cycle of the system. Production costs, R&D costs, upgrades, spare parts, fuel, pilot training and maintenance, end-of-life disposal. They try not to say the terrible figure out loud in order to avoid righteous anger on the part of pacifists and other conscientious taxpayers.
Once such a figure "leaked" to the press - and the military had problems. This is the incredible B-2 Spirit bomber, whose life cycle cost has exceeded $ 2 billion in 17-year-old prices! (there is reason to believe that this amount did not include fuel)
However, at the same time, the procurement cost of the strategic stealth bomber was $ 929 million - not that much for an innovative machine with a maximum take-off weight of 170 tons. For comparison, now passenger Boeing-747s cost airlines about 350 million dollars per unit. Of course, civilian aircraft do not have radars with AFAR, or technologies for reducing visibility, or sighting systems or electronic warfare equipment, similar to the onboard equipment of the Spirit.
The myth of the unnecessarily high cost of B-2 does not hold up when faced with real facts. Of course, the comparison of the full life cycle of a large strategic bomber with the optimistic figures for the cost of lighter aircraft (as a rule, excluding their R&D) gave an incorrect result. B-2 has become a laughing stock.
As for the domestic aviation industry, there is no open information about the cost of R&D, spare parts and the life cycle of combat aircraft. This information is a state secret, a commercial secret of the UAC and, in principle, is not intended for the general public.
Of no less interest is the concept of “cost of one hour of flight”. This concept includes not only fuel consumption and normal hours of post-flight maintenance, but also the costs of creating an aircraft - every hour of flight, the machine “fulfills” the funds invested in it, starting from the design stage.
In this case, several reliable options arise at once - depending on the initial data. The selected cost is divided by the estimated resource of the airframe (as a rule, for modern aircraft it is 4000 … 8000 hours) - in the end, there may be a scatter of data from 15 to 40 thousand dollars per hour of flight, as happened in the leadership of the Italian Air Force during the discussion prospects of the fighter "Eurofighter Typhoon". And everyone will be right in their own way.
The cost of modern aviation is enormous. But, as the old truth says - whoever does not want to feed his army will feed someone else's. However, do not forget that uncontrolled spending on "defense" can also ruin any country. Measure in everything is the key to success.
