The main part of targets in Syria is hit by unguided weapons, used with high accuracy
The latest Russian developments make it possible to use free-fall bombs with an accuracy corresponding to the best WTO models. On average, a little more than one sortie is required to destroy one target - 1, 16. This is a very good result, given the fact that precision weapons are used by Russian aviation in Syria to a very limited extent. The main means of destruction are unguided weapon systems - NURS of various calibers and free-fall bombs.
There are almost no civilian casualties (it can be assumed that they are, since Islamic State militants place their facilities in cities and towns near residential buildings). All this forces us to take a close look at the weapons used by Russian aviation. After all, the actions of American aviation in similar conditions in Yugoslavia, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya were accompanied by significant casualties among the civilian population. They were especially great when American aircraft used free-fall bombs. And the consumption of weapons, the technical resource per target hit, turned out to be significantly higher than the current Russian pilots in Syria. This is due to the fact that with the traditional use of free-fall bombs, dispersion is very significant - the deviation of ammunition can vary from 150 to 400 meters, depending on the drop height and the method of approach of the aircraft to the target. This means that the probability of a direct hit of one bomb on a small target (ten by ten meters) is small and amounts to a maximum of half a percent. Taking into account the possible zone of destruction by a medium-caliber bomb (250 kg) of ground objects, which are of limited engineering protection, the probability of destruction increases to two percent. A typical strike aircraft, with a bomb load of four tons (16 bombs of 250 kg each), is capable of hitting a protected underground object with a probability of up to eight percent, and a ground, unprotected one, with a probability of about 30 percent. Accordingly, to hit a point object with an acceptable probability (0, 6–0, 8), a very decent outfit of tactical (frontline, assault) aviation is required - from a flight of four sides to one or two squadrons with a total of 12–24 aircraft. And to destroy well-protected underground structures with free-fall bombs, it will be necessary to plan 70-80 or more sorties, which is confirmed by the practice of the combat use of aviation in military conflicts of the 20th century, for example, in Vietnam. In addition, in this case, huge losses are inevitable among the civilian population living near military facilities: in an area with a radius of 150-400 meters from the target, from 40-45 to 300 and more than 250-kilogram bombs will fall and explode, and the rest, by virtue of the law of dispersion, will fall even further. It is unlikely that any of the civilians in this zone will survive.
The bomb is a fool, the sight is great
Russian aircraft, using free fall bombs of medium (250 kg) and large caliber (500 kg), solve the problem of hitting well-protected point targets (including underground ones) with small forces - one or two aircraft. And this is in conditions when the militants of the "Islamic State" have been under the attacks of the US and NATO aircraft for a long time and managed to take measures to minimize their losses, one of which was the placement of their infrastructure facilities, if possible, within the residential area in order to hide behind the civilian population. Meanwhile, no noticeable losses among him from strikes by Russian aviation have been reported to date. Military experts explain this by the fact that most of the Russian aircraft sent to Syria are equipped with the latest domestic development of the SVP-24. The idea underlying this system is to ensure not accurate homing at the target of the ammunition, but the correct withdrawal to the point of dropping the uncontrolled weapons of their carrier. This is how our system fundamentally differs from the American concept of converting conventional bombs into precision weapons - JDAM. The United States is installing kits on free-fall bombs that provide guidance to a target using GPS data. That is, they turned ordinary bombs into guided ones. It is clear that the cost of such a bomb increases significantly (the kit costs about 26 thousand dollars), although it remains significantly less than a full-fledged high-precision ammunition. SVP-24 provides alignment of the target with the location of the carrier, corrected for the trajectory of the bomb, calculated by the onboard computer complex, taking into account hydrometeorological conditions and its ballistics. Thus, conventional ammunition acquires an efficiency commensurate with precision weapons. The developers claim that the accuracy of bombing even from a height of five to six kilometers can be extremely high. Tests in polygon conditions gave a standard deviation of a 250-500-kilogram bomb from a target of about four to seven meters. It is clear that in a combat situation additional factors are superimposed that significantly reduce the accuracy of bombing. First of all, these are errors in determining the coordinates of the target, which can reach several meters. There is no completeness of information about the hydrometeorological situation, the state of the air environment in the target area. An additional several meters of error will be introduced by determining the location of the carrier according to GLONASS data in the combat zone. The coordinates are somewhat distorted during sharp maneuvering in the target area. Taking into account all these factors, it is possible to assess the accuracy of the combat use of free-fall bombs using the SVP-24 with an indicator of 20-25 meters. In this case, the probability of hitting a small-sized protected underground structure can be 30-40 percent, and the probability of hitting weakly protected ground objects of medium caliber can reach 60 percent. This is quite enough to carry out high-precision and reliable destruction of designated targets with a limited composition of forces: even for a highly protected small-sized object, it is enough to use three or four bombs, and a weakly protected one will be guaranteed to be destroyed by two ammunition. In this case, the destruction zone near the struck object will not exceed several tens of meters, which is comparable to the distance between individual buildings in a typical urban development. Thus, having 12-16 bombs of medium and large caliber, equipped with the SVP-24 system, the Su-24M aircraft is capable of destroying up to two point infrastructure facilities of the Islamists in one sortie. Probably, it is for this reason that on average there is a little more than one sortie for each affected object (it should not be forgotten that attack aircraft are accompanied by support aircraft, in particular fighters). At the same time, the cost of ammunition in comparison with high-precision weapons or bombs equipped with a JDAM kit remains penny. For the sake of fairness, we note that the accuracy of hitting the JDAM bomb will be higher - five to seven meters. That is, the probability of hitting even a protected underground structure reaches 70-80 percent. But this has an insignificant effect on increasing the effectiveness of aviation operations - for the vast majority of combat missions in Syria, such accuracy is excessive.
You can't hide behind the smoke
It should be especially noted that the effectiveness of bombing using the SVP-24 system depends little on weather conditions and the visibility range in the target area, since it is determined by the GLONASS system and the operation of the aircraft onboard systems. That is, if the coordinates of the target are reliable, it is no longer possible to defend against a blow by setting up smoke screens or other means of camouflage by creating passive interference. However, this system also has disadvantages. The most important of them lies in its dignity - the requirement to determine the coordinates of the target with high accuracy and classify it correctly. This entails a sharp increase in the reaction time - from the moment the target is detected to the impact on it, it can take from an hour or two (depending on the distance of the target from the home airfield) to a day or more. That limits the possibilities of using this weapon only against stationary objects. Probably for this reason, with rare exceptions, our aviation in Syria is working to destroy the infrastructure of the "Islamic State". However, American aviation in Syria and Iraq is also acting for the most part against similar targets.
Halftone Rotary Hammer
In Syria, Russian aviation mainly uses standard free-fall high-explosive bombs of 250 and 500 kilograms, as well as special concrete-piercing bombs BETAB-500, including active-reactive bombs with increased obstacle penetration capabilities - BETAB-500ShP. High-explosive bombs contain a large amount of explosives - from 150 to 350 kilograms, which ensures reliable target destruction. However, large-caliber high-explosive bombs have a significant hitting radius, so they are used in Syria against relatively large structurally strong objects located far from urban development. Concrete-piercing bombs, capable of penetrating up to three to four meters of concrete floors (depending on the quality of concrete), are used to destroy specially protected underground structures. Basically, these are command posts of the strategic and operational level of control, as well as large weapons depots.
Big-eyed rockets
In addition to free-fall bombs, precision weapons are occasionally used in Syria. According to reliable sources in the Ministry of Defense, X-29 and X-25 air-to-surface missiles were repeatedly used during the hostilities, both with laser and television guidance systems. The main carriers of such weapons in Syria are the Su-34 and Su-25. The Kh-29 missiles with a launch weight of 660–680 kilograms have a warhead weighing 320 kilograms. Their firing range is 10-15 kilometers, depending on the transparency of the atmosphere. The target is captured by the homing head from under the wing of the aircraft, therefore, after launch, the carrier can freely maneuver (if there is an external source of target illumination when using missiles with a laser seeker), realizing the "fire and forget" principle. The highest firing accuracy of missiles with a television seeker is achieved at visually contrasting targets. For the use of laser seeker, the target must be illuminated with a laser, which can be carried out from the carrier itself (in this case, it will be to a certain extent constrained in the maneuver and until the target is hit by the missile must be in the strike area) or by an external source, for example, a drone. Provides a direct hit on a typical small-sized target (two to three meters) with a probability of up to 80 percent or more. A powerful high-explosive-armor-piercing warhead at a missile flight speed in the target area of 350-400 meters per second practically guarantees its destruction, even if it is protected by one and a half meters of concrete floors. At the same time, the destruction zone of buildings adjacent to the target does not exceed 10-15 meters. In Syria, such missiles are used to destroy specially protected objects located in dense urban areas to exclude casualties among the local population.
Small-sized X-25 missiles, which are also used in Syria, have a launch weight of about 300 kilograms and a warhead from 86 to 136 kilograms. The latest modifications of this missile can be equipped with a tandem warhead that penetrates concrete floors up to a meter thick, ensuring the complete destruction of the object. The hitting accuracy is the same two to three meters of deflection as in the Kh-29. Target acquisition is also carried out from under the carrier's wing, so the practical launch range is mainly limited by the range of the seeker, which in a clean atmosphere reaches 7-12 kilometers. High firing accuracy and a relatively small warhead allow the Kh-25 to be used in dense urban areas to destroy objects located in the immediate vicinity of residential buildings without causing serious damage to them.
If only they were all
In addition to the listed samples, the Russian Aerospace Forces in Syria use adjustable bombs on a limited scale. It is known about several facts of the use of KAB-500L and KAB-500Kr. The first of them has a laser guidance system, the second - a television one. Both have powerful warheads weighing about 400 kilograms, containing just under 280 kilograms of explosives. The accuracy of hitting the target is four to nine meters - at the level of the best world samples. The discharge can be carried out from a height of 1500 meters and up to the practical ceiling of the action of front-line and ground-attack aircraft. The distance to the object and the height of the bombs are limited by the permissible flight speed of the carrier and the target acquisition range of the seeker (up to 9 km). The probability of hitting even well-protected targets with one such ammunition is 80–85 percent or more. A powerful warhead further increases the likelihood of destroying the target, however, it also imposes restrictions on the use of such weapons in residential areas with dense buildings. Therefore, in Syria, half-tone KABs are used sporadically to destroy especially strong objects located at a distance from residential buildings. In particular, according to information from reliable sources, it was these bombs that destroyed the fortifications of the militants in the interests of supporting the offensive of the Syrian army.
For strikes against targets located in the immediate vicinity of civilian objects, our aviation uses the latest development of the Russian defense industry complex - KAB-250. In Syria, bombs of this type are used with a control system that provides guidance to a stationary target according to GLONASS data, similar to the American JDAM. However, our development has some peculiarities. First, it can be dropped at supersonic speed, which allows it to be separated from the carrier at a distance of several tens of kilometers from the target and to ensure a high bomb speed in the area of the target. Secondly, the perfect aerodynamic shape made it possible to achieve a higher accuracy of hitting the target, which is estimated at two to three meters. In combination with a relatively small warhead, this allows the KAB-250 to be used against targets located directly at objects, the destruction of which is unacceptable for one reason or another. For such surgical strikes, this ammunition is used today in Syria.
High-precision ammunition with television and laser guidance systems are capable of hitting mobile and stationary targets without prior detailed reconnaissance. This makes it possible to effectively use KABs for quickly identifiable fortifications and militant defense units.
It should be especially noted that the weapons used by the Russian front-line and ground attack aircraft allow our aircraft not to enter the zone of destruction of the militants' MANPADS. And this still makes it possible to avoid losses of our aviation group in Syria.
