Recently, a meeting was held under the chairmanship of Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin on the issues of Russian manned astronautics. Against the background of conversations that the Russian budget is not yet up to the implementation of the lunar exploration program, a question of this nature was also discussed: what will Russia do after the completion of the ISS operation project? The completion of such a project according to plans should take place in 2020. And the question dedicated to Russia's further steps in this direction does not seem to be idle at all.
The International Space Station is a project in which one and a half dozen states participate, but today it is Russia that makes the greatest contribution to the implementation and maintenance of this project, since over the past ten years it is the Russian spacecraft Soyuz and Progress that have been delivering both cosmonauts to orbit and astronauts and cargo. After the termination of the use of shuttles by the Americans, the burden of responsibility for servicing the International Space Station fell on the Russian side. There are, however, also the European and Japanese transport aircraft ATV and HTV, as well as the American Dragon and Cygnus, but so far the contribution of these vehicles to the ISS lags behind Russia's contribution by an order of magnitude. If since the early 2000s Russia has used (and provided) its Soyuz and Progress spacecraft for the functioning of the ISS about 90 times, then the European, American and Japanese vehicles (taken together) have made only a dozen flights, and about a quarter of them - more training than workers.
In 2020, the existing station operation program will be completed, but the American side, which in terms of using the ISS today actually fell into direct dependence on Russian manned space exploration, proposes to extend the program for at least 4 years. In other words, the United States proposes to leave everything as it was until 2024. Like, these are sanctions on Earth, but here we must remain friends …
The "friendliness" of such a proposal from the United States is quite understandable: by 2020, the United States may not reach the level of operation of its new spaceships, which is required for the full functioning of the ISS or some of its own American orbital project, and therefore NASA, being reinsured, offers Russia to work as a cab. for a while. Like, we will polish our manned space program, and then, when the Signuses, Dragons and, possibly, other spaceships are 100% operational, we will announce sanctions against Russia and in outer space …
Realizing that Russia is being asked to remain in the ISS "cage" for a 4-year period and after 2020, not at all because of a great love for Russian cosmonautics, but due to the existing dependence on Russia, Dmitry Rogozin said that interest in the ISS in its current version of the Russian Federation will only show until 2020.
Dmitry Rogozin:
We have a certain interest, expressed by our American colleagues, about the extension of the ISS operation until 2024, but the Federal Space Agency of the Russian Academy of Sciences and the Advanced Research Fund (FPI) are now ready to propose new strategic points related to the further development of Russian cosmonautics after 2020.
Dmitry Rogozin explained that the FKA for the period after 2020 has its own plans for the implementation of manned space projects. The Deputy Prime Minister made it clear that these plans no longer include cooperation with the American side in the ISS format, reminding the Americans about the structure of the ISS:
The Russian segment can exist independently of the American one, while the American segment cannot exist independently of the Russian one.
Rogozin emphasized that, at first glance, the dependence is mutual, but the United States is currently interested in cooperation with Russia on the ISS much higher, since it is the Russian means of delivering the crew and cargo to the International Space Station that are used.
Dmitry Rogozin:
We plan that we need the ISS by 2020.
Based on such statements by the Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation, one can come to the conclusion that Russia by 2020 may well implement its individual orbital project. In this regard, the question arises: is the refusal to extend cooperation on the ISS after 2020 a political decision or is it not? It can hardly be denied that recent events of a political nature have had an impact on this decision.
But Russia has other directions for space maneuver in terms of the implementation of orbital space projects - not only the complete individualization of the exploration of near-earth space. One of the directions for such a maneuver is the possibility of cooperation with those states that not only show a more balanced policy towards Russia, but also have their own experience in the rocket and space industry. Alternatively, China. The Chinese "Heavenly Palace 1" (aka Tiangong-1) is an orbital project that is similar in its basic functionality to Soviet orbital modules (for example, "Salyut"). Of course, in terms of a number of indicators, it does not reach the modern orbital station, but this only emphasizes the possibility of implementing a more effective joint project, if, of course, the Federal Space Agency generally has plans to actively integrate with someone in terms of manned astronautics …
Whether Russia will integrate certain segments of its space programs with the Chinese side or not is a question, but the actual rejection of close cooperation with the United States after 2020 is a fact. Of course, before the year 20 a lot of water can leak (and leak), but leaving yourself as cabbies, servicing the development of individual American space projects based on their space transport, is somehow naive and strange. It's only a pity that the American side can use such a statement by Rogozin to intensify its own work, because the Deputy Prime Minister acted too gentlemanly when he outlined the plans of the FKA for the ISS. But they could have bluffed, saying that they would certainly serve "international interests" on the ISS after 2020, and then (at one fine moment) announce that Russia is completing participation in the project - fly "Dragons" or jump to the ISS using trampolines (as Dmitry Rogozin recently wrote on Twitter). There is an opinion that if now on the ISS not the United States depended on Russia, but Russia on the United States, then our cosmonauts would have been “unhooked” long ago - “in a friendly way” …
