In many of our analytical reviews and forecasting works, the strategic capabilities of the People's Liberation Army of China to exercise control over the near and distant approaches to the state in the vast Asia-Pacific region were discussed in detail within the framework of the Three Chains concept. The latter was described in detail in the "White Paper" of the PLA command three years earlier, and provides for the division of the APR into three strategic lines (called "chains") as it moves away from the east coast of China. The "first chain" includes the closest maritime boundaries, limited to the Spratly archipelago, Paracel Islands, the Philippines, Taiwan, the Diaoyu archipelago, South Korea and Japan, including the island prefecture of Okinawa.
Due to the remoteness of only 500-1000 km from the Chinese borders, this "chain" creates the greatest number of strategic threats for Beijing. This is the regular presence in the South China, East China and Japan Seas of the US Navy AUG with multipurpose strike variants of the Ohaio Tomahawk SSGN carriers, and the deployment in South Korea of the THAAD anti-missile systems, which, using multifunctional AN / TPY-2s are capable of scanning aerospace over 200-300 km of Chinese territory. But if on these lines the fleet, air force and "anti-aircraft" missile units of the PLA, which have supersonic anti-ship missiles YJ-18 and anti-ship ballistic missiles DF-21D, have a decisive advantage over the American aircraft carrier strike groups and island military facilities, then within the "2nd chain "the situation for the Chinese is not at all simple. It is dominated by the US Navy's anti-missile defense, built on the basis of the Aegis BIUS of the American NKs, and also dominated by the American anti-submarine aircraft, equipped with the latest long-range patrol aircraft P-8A "Poseidon". The "second chain" extends within the island line "Palau - Guam-Saipan", located 2-3 thousand km from the PRC. It is this operational-strategic "fulcrum" with the main transshipment base of the US Navy and Air Force on about. Guam should be deprived of Washington in the event of an escalation of a major regional conflict in the Pacific theater of operations. But the Celestial Empire does not have many resources for this at the moment.
A partial solution to the problem can be expressed in the establishment of a zone of restriction and denial of access and A2 / AD maneuvers over the "2nd chain" by the Chinese tactical aviation, which, first of all, requires a long operation to gain air superiority. Due to this, it will be possible to control the underwater space by surface and air anti-submarine weapons of the Chinese fleet. It will be extremely difficult for Chinese aviation to "close" the airspace over this remote oceanic territory. It will require the use of carrier-based aircraft of 2 existing Chinese aircraft carriers, as well as stealth 5th generation J-20 multipurpose fighters, which will be able to fend off the threat from hundreds of carrier-based F / A-18E / F / G and F-35B / C "Lightning II ". But for such actions in 2500-3000 km from native air bases, the Chinese Air Force will need constant and extremely intensive support from modern air tankers, of which there are currently only 3 units in the Chinese Air Force (supplied by the Il-78 Ukroboronprom).
The basis of the air "tanker fleet" of the Chinese Air Force today are long-range tanker aircraft H-6U / DU. The concept and design features of these vehicles go back to the distant 50-60s, to the basic Soviet tankers Tu-16Yu and Tu-16N. Their real ability to refuel heavy "tactics" such as J-20 or J-16 leaves much to be desired. In particular, the H-6U fuel system can receive 37 tons of fuel, of which 18.5 tons can be transferred to fighters at a distance of 800-1000 km. At a distance of 1400 km, no more than 11 tons of fuel can be transferred. What does this mean? Only that a link of 4 H-6U is capable of refueling at a distance of 1300 km one link of 4 unobtrusive J-20, the fuel system of which is designed for 11100 kg of fuel (for each). At a distance of 2000 km, H-6U can refuel only 1 J-10A / B with outboard fuel tanks, the total fuel mass of which reaches 5430 kg. Consequently, the PRC Air Force does not have the technical capabilities to "reverse" the dominance of American carrier-based aircraft even on the approach lines to the "2nd chain". This requires several dozen more serious air tankers of the Il-78 / M type.
Only three Il-78 air tankers were handed over to the Chinese side under the December 2011 contract between the PRC and Ukroboronprom SC worth $ 44.7 million. Miraculously surviving IL-78, which are in the storage of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, underwent overhaul and restoration work and began to arrive to the customer, albeit with more than a year non-compliance with the contract terms. The first car with the number UR-76744 arrived in the Celestial Empire in October 2014, the second (UR-76760) was distilled in June 2015. The third vehicle, which was previously part of the 409th Aviation Regiment of Tanker Aircraft of the 105th TBAD of the USSR Air Force, entered the storage of the Ukrainian Air Force in 2008 and turned out to be unclaimed at the auction of defense property of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in 2011. Only in 2013, the board was sent for repairs in Kulbakino. During the execution of this transaction, the pro-Western Ukrainian mass media managed to show their face once again, which almost provoked a scandal, accusing the previous "regional" government of understating the contract value by $ 8 million.
Will only three Il-78 aircraft be able to improve the operational and strategic capabilities of the Chinese Air Force in the Pacific air sector? Undoubtedly not.., but for carrying out short-term air strike operations, or intercepting enemy aircraft on the borders of the island of Guam, these aircraft are good enough. In particular, 3 Il-78 tankers are capable of transferring tactical fighter aircraft, anti-submarine aircraft, etc. 108 tons of fuel at a distance of 2500 km from the home airfield. This amount is sufficient for the full refueling of an air wing of 10 5th generation J-20 fighters within the "2nd chain" of the PLA operational control ("Guam-Saipan"). For a decisive superiority over the US Air Force carrier-based aircraft, the Chinese will need the presence of about two regiments of 60 Black Eagles in this sector, the maintenance of which will require 10-12 Il-78 or similar air tankers. Today, the Chinese Air Force could already have 7 Il-78 tanker aircraft, 4 of which were to be obtained under a major contract with the Russian Federation, in addition to 34 military transport Il-76s. But the $ 1.5 billion contract was doomed in advance, since the former flagship of the Soviet aircraft industry, the Tashkent Aviation Production Association named after V. Chkalov (TAPOiCH), was stuck in bankruptcy and was redesigned to produce padlocks and door locks.
A radical increase in the operational and tactical qualities of Chinese fighter aircraft in the region of the "2nd island chain" of the Asia-Pacific region, capable of overcoming the existing problem with American superiority, will follow only after the start of serial production of tanker aircraft based on the Y-20 military transport vehicle. Characteristics of the new air tanker, based on the Xian's "Twenty" with wings from ANTK im. OK. Antonov, will correspond to the level of the IL-78M. Based on the maximum combat load of 70-73 tons, with which the Y-20 will be able to overcome 4,500 km, it is not at all difficult to calculate that the new air tanker will transfer 73,000 kg of fuel to consumers at a distance of about 2,000 km. This is enough for a full refueling of 6 J-20. Accordingly, 3 "tanker" J-20s will be able to provide fuel to 16 "Black Eagles" in 2,5 thousand kilometers from China (60% superiority over the standard Il-78).
In addition to the possibility of establishing control over the island borders "Palau - Guam - Saipan", the active increase in the Y-20 fleet will open up an operational advantage for the flight personnel of the Chinese Air Force, associated with the speed of refueling in the air. According to our and foreign sources, almost the entire "tanker fleet" of the Chinese Air Force, including 3 IL-78 purchased in Ukraine, is represented today by obsolete modifications of unified suspended refueling units of the UPAZ / -1A type, the overflow capacity of which is 1600-2300 liters. / min respectively. For new aircraft, they will either buy more advanced UPAZ-1M, with a pumping capacity of 3000 l / min (thanks to the use of 1, 3-1, 9 times more powerful turbopump unit with a freestream turbine TNA-150M), or launch a similar Chinese unit with the RDС-1 index, which appeared at the Zhuhai International Airshow. As you know, this product is structurally different from the UPAZ-1M, and is based on the American product FRL-Mk.32B-Pod-S (installed on the KC-135R tankers).
The start of large-scale production of the latest long-range tanker aircraft based on the military transport Y-20 can only be expected after 2019; it was then that the first pages of Western news agencies would begin to dazzle with "nervous" reports about the frequent occurrences of Chinese Su-35S and J-16s in neutral airspace near the strategically important bridgehead of the US Armed Forces in the APR - Fr. Guam. The second most unpleasant news for Washington will be the noticeable "revival" of two powerful carrier-based air regiments deployed on the operating CV-16 aircraft carrier "Liaoning" and the promising aircraft carrier pr. 001A, which was launched on April 26, 2017. After the appearance of the Y-20 in the refueling version, there will be no need to land the deck J-15 / S for refueling. All of the above nuances, collected bit by bit, represent Beijing's heavy argument in defense of its own geostrategic interests in the eastern borders of the Philippine Sea.
