The last two months have been rich in news about the development of domestic ballistic missiles. At the very beginning of September, it became known that by 2018 the Russian strategic missile forces would receive a new intercontinental missile. The purpose of this development was announced to replace the outdated ICBM model R-36M2 "Voyevoda". By the announced date, the old rockets were planned to be completely decommissioned and disposed of or used for launching spacecraft into orbit. On the whole, good news, although there were some debates about the feasibility of the new project and its optimal appearance.
For the next several weeks, there were no new messages on the progress of the promising ICBM project. But in recent days, the news again went one after another. First, on October 19, Interfax, citing a source in the defense industry, announced the submission of a draft design of a new missile to the Ministry of Defense. The military was generally satisfied, but with some reservations. The developers were required to correct some unnamed nuances and start preparing a full-fledged project. The main developer of the new rocket was the State Missile Center. V. P. Makeeva (Miass), and the Reutov NPO of Mechanical Engineering also participates in the creation of the project. According to available data, the requirements of the Ministry of Defense for the new missile imply a launch mass of about one hundred tons, the installation of liquid engines and a new complex to overcome the anti-missile defense. Other details of the terms of reference and the appearance of the new rocket are still secret. Moreover, at the moment there is no information about the name of the project.
Based on the known information, several interesting conclusions can be drawn. For example, lovers of conspiracy theories can "cling" to the fact that the new rocket for ground use is made not by the Moscow Institute of Thermal Engineering, which previously created the Topol family and the Yars rocket, but by the Miass SRC im. Makeev, who for the last nearly sixty years has been exclusively developing ballistic missiles for submarines. From a certain point of view, the change of the lead developer may look like confirmation for assumptions about the lack of a serious future for MIT due to a series of unsuccessful launches of the R-30 Bulava missile. However, the transfer of a purely "land" rocket project to an organization that previously dealt only with naval issues may have a much simpler and more prosaic explanation. The fact is that in recent years the Institute of Thermal Engineering, so to speak, has monopolized the land-based missile industry. Moreover, this autumn it is expected that the navy will adopt a new ballistic missile R-30 "Bulava", thanks to which MIT developments will serve not only on land. GRTs them. Makeeva, in turn, until recently, for a number of reasons, was forced to deal only with the modernization of the existing rocket technology. In the course of these works, for example, the R-29RMU2.1 "Liner" rocket was created, designed to replace the previous missiles of the R-29 family. However, "Liner" is proposed for use on submarines of old projects, and new submarine missile carriers are now being built with the expectation of "Bulava". Thus, an order for the development of a new missile for the Strategic Missile Forces, and not for the Navy, looks like a kind of lifesaver for the famous Ural enterprise.
It is also worth dwelling on the announced starting mass. The new ICBM will weigh about one hundred tons against twice the mass of the planned replacement R-36M2. The twofold discrepancy raises certain questions. First of all, they relate to the payload, not the flight range. With the latter, everything is clear - even a solid-propellant rocket with half the mass can have a range of over 10-11 thousand kilometers, as the latest developments of MIT demonstrate. But the head part, in turn, is the subject of controversy. If you try to present a promising ICBM as a reduced R-36M2 with appropriate weight and size characteristics, it turns out that it will be able to deliver warheads with a total weight of about four tons to the target. This "calculation" does not claim to be true and has as its purpose only a rough idea of the characteristics of the rocket. Naturally, about any ten warheads, like the "Voevoda", there is no talk anymore. In addition, the requirements for overcoming enemy missile defense hint at the composition of the payload. The new warhead is likely to receive a relatively large number of decoys and warhead simulators. It is obvious that an increase in the number and mass of breakthrough weapons will have the most direct impact on the size and power of the combat units used. A certain difficulty in attempts to predict the composition of the warhead of a new missile is introduced by previous domestic ICBMs. Of the latest missiles, only the RS-24 Yars has a multiple warhead. The Topol family, in turn, carries a monoblock warhead. At the same time, the promising ICBM from the State Missile Center belongs to the class of heavy missiles, which makes it possible to assume with a high degree of probability that it will be equipped with a multiple warhead, even if it is more modest in comparison with the R-36M2.
The appearance of a promising rocket, of course, is of great interest. However, some statements by Defense Ministry officials can make the situation even more curious and even controversial. Almost simultaneously with the news of the approval of the draft design, RIA Novosti quoted the consultant to the commander-in-chief of the Strategic Missile Forces, Colonel-General (Ret.) V. Esin. According to him, the production of a new liquid-propellant ICBM will begin at the end of this 2012. In light of the September statements by the missile command, such information could raise many questions. First of all, it is not entirely clear how the terms that were named earlier and those named now are related to each other. If the preliminary design has just been approved, then in the best case, the new missiles will fly after 2014-15. But Yesin said exactly about 2012. Most likely, in this case we are dealing with a phenomenon that is commonly called a damaged phone. The individual components of the new rocket, which need to be tested in the course of R&D on the topic, may well be manufactured already this year, but these are just individual parts and assemblies, and not a full-fledged delivery vehicle. As for the assembly of the entire rocket, this is a matter of the following years. GRTs them. Makeeva is known for her thoroughness in projects and is unlikely to be in such a hurry.
The picture of the creation of a new promising intercontinental ballistic missile of a heavy class that has developed in the media turned out to be quite interesting. To the usual secrecy in such matters and the gradual disclosure of details, an incomprehensible situation with the timing has been added, which turns the whole picture upside down. The conclusion that one of the sources of information is insufficiently informed is self-evident, but so far there has been no official confirmation or denial of information about the start of construction of the rocket this year. It remains only to wait for new statements and fresh news. If the assembly work really begins this year, then soon we will be told about them.
