So, on November 14, Russian President Vladimir Putin approved the signing of an agreement with the Republic of Armenia on the creation of a united group of forces on the territory of this state. The official legal information website states the following:
"Accept the proposal of the Government of the Russian Federation to sign an agreement between the Russian Federation and Armenia on the Joint Grouping of Troops (Forces) of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Armenia and the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation."
The grouping is being created to ensure "the security of the parties in the Caucasian region of collective security." Technically, interaction will be carried out through the defense ministries of both countries. Obey, respectively, the Chief of the General Staff of the Republic of Armenia. And in the event of a military danger and other possible "emergency situations", the command can be assumed by the Commander of the Forces of the Southern Military District of the RF Ministry of Defense. The candidacy of a specific commander of the group will be coordinated by the presidents of Russia and Armenia jointly.
However, the units and formations that make up the grouping will be provided and financed from the funds of the states to whose armies they belong. Simply put, logistics, weapons, means of reinforcement and other critical aspects remain the responsibility of states. Russia is not going to re-equip the Armenian army at its own expense.
The composition of the future grouping is interesting. But it is too early to speak specifically on this issue. The official document says very little about this. Only that the composition of the joint forces will be determined by the Defense Ministries of Russia and Armenia.
And the last thing: the term of the contract is set at 5 years. However, there is an automatic renewal without additional approvals if both parties agree to this renewal.
A campaign to discredit the future treaty has already begun in the media in several countries. The main leitmotif of this campaign was "Russia's aggressiveness" and "the desire to change the balance of power in the Caucasus in our favor." By the way, for some reason I don't see anything wrong with the fact that Russia is pursuing a foreign policy that is beneficial to … Russia. I would rather be surprised if it were not so.
It is in the light of the "hype" raised that I propose to consider the situation in the region.
To further understand the chain of reasoning, it is necessary to understand that Armenia is not just a partner of Russia in the region. Armenia is our strategic partner. In addition, Armenia is a member of the CIS, a member of the EAEU. But, most importantly, Armenia is one of the basic states of the CSTO.
Further, it is necessary to understand that the security of Armenia and the problem of Nagorno-Karabakh are different in essence. Many people mistakenly believe that Nagorno-Karabakh is part of Armenia. However, in fact, this is still a "gray zone". Unrecognized state. Therefore, it makes no sense to talk about the influence of the grouping on the solution of this issue.
If we recall the very recent past, more precisely, the spring aggravation of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, we get an interesting picture. Strategic partner Armenia is at war with simply partner Azerbaijan. And next to it there is a partner in the future - Georgia. It was then that the "groans" of some "hurray-patriots" about the "stillborn" CSTO were heard for the first time. We were supposedly obliged to help the Armenians defeat the Azerbaijani army. The answer to these groans is given above.
Talks about creating a grouping in the region have been going on for a long time. Moreover, there have been repeated attempts to "push" this idea through the CSTO. However, membership in the organization of both Armenia and Azerbaijan made the idea irrelevant. But the withdrawal of Baku from the CSTO and the subsequent events just actualized the creation of the united forces.
Armenia is of great importance to us today. Not only as a partner in the region, but also as a state that provides possible directions for the input and output of our forces further. The creation of a group of Russian Aerospace Forces in Syria has made Armenia a state, peace and security in which we now vitally need. A war in Armenia will mean a war in the rear of our troops.
I understand very well that both Yerevan and Baku are pursuing an "independent" foreign policy. And I also understand very well that the successes of our Aerospace Forces in Syria, as they were a huge pain in the ass of the coalition, remain. Nobody will change the attitude towards our success, towards the success of Assad, and even towards Assad himself. And Russia, as it was, remains the enemy number one.
Trump is not president yet. And it is too early to talk about what and how will happen with his arrival. But it is necessary to expect some surprises. The emergence of the next military confrontation in Armenia can be just such a surprise. Strategically, such a conflict would be an excellent distraction.
It was not for nothing that I mentioned the "spring exacerbation". Today in Baku they often talk about the victory in that "war". Hurray-patriots demand from the government and the president to "put the squeeze" on Karabakh. But what is it really? But in fact, the victory of Baku is "Pyrrhic". Through the efforts of John Kerry and Sergey Lavrov, an agreement on Nagorno-Karabakh was developed and signed in Vienna and St. Petersburg. On the line of confrontation, peacekeepers and a monitoring system should appear. This means that the conflict completely disappears from the sphere of military confrontation into the sphere of diplomacy.
Thus, the creation of a united group can be viewed as a preventive measure to "cool" the hot heads of Baku. Maybe this will silence some especially bellicose mouths in Azerbaijan.
So, if we consider the region from a military-political point of view, the following picture is obtained. The danger of terrorist organizations exists. The main routes of penetration into the territory of the CIS and Russia are also known. Moreover, the scale of military operations against terrorists in Syria and Iraq will force the latter to leave for third countries.
So far, we have only considered the possibility of a "hidden" return of the terrorists home. And to Russia, and to Europe, and to Central Asia. Did they consider the possibility of a breakthrough to the same Armenia? What can the Armenian army, though brave, but not having experience in serious battles, oppose to a large group of terrorists?
The first "line of defense" of Russia against terrorism today are our aerospace forces in Syria. It is they who today "utilize" the most odious supporters of ISIS (banned in Russia). It is they who control the movement of these gangs across the territory of Syria and neighboring states.
But the role of the "second line" will be played by the group in Armenia. By the way, this explains some discrepancy between the weapons purchased by Yerevan and the forces of the Armenian army proper. Remember Iskander. Think of the billions spent on purchasing special equipment for the Armenian army.
Russia quite rightly understood the long-known truth: the enemy must be beaten on its territory. What our grandfathers and great-grandfathers sang about in songs in the 30s is now being realized in reality. The benefits of creating a grouping are clear for both countries. The world must live in peace! And for this, it is necessary that the world has a notion that it will not work just like that to start shooting today. It's troublesome. It is troublesome, first of all, for the aggressor.
If we, apart from declarations on the creation of a multipolar world, do nothing, we are worthless. And any pole must not only be proclaimed, but also defended.
