GPV-2025 is the state armament program for 2018-2025. It is this document that determines how much and what kind of equipment should be produced and supplied to our armed forces. Naturally, starting from this program, a direction is created for the further development of the Russian armed forces.
The program will be approved in June-July this year.
Quite understandable, the details are kept secret. But if we analyze the speeches and interviews of people involved in this program (Dmitry Rogozin, Yuri Borisov and others), then we can already draw preliminary conclusions.
The main task of the Russian military-industrial complex, as has been repeatedly stated at the highest level (Putin, Shoigu), was to bring the level of equipment of the armed forces with modern equipment to 70% by 2020.
Here the interests of several departments collide. This includes the army, military-industrial complex enterprises, and the Ministry of Finance. In 2015, when work began on the creation of the GPV, the Ministry of Defense requested 55 trillion rubles for the program. Later, in 2016, the amount was adjusted to $ 30 trillion. The Ministry of Finance was ready to allocate no more than 12 trillion for the program.
Of course, sanctions, crises, etc. have played their role, and I think that in the end the parties will come to an agreement on the figure of 15-18 trillion rubles.
In time, the program was supposed to operate from 2016 to 2025. But, since the economic situation in our country really leaves much to be desired, it is worth remembering that the already financed part of the SAP for 2011-2020 has not yet been fully implemented. And 20 trillion rubles were allocated for this part.
Rogozin says that all unspent and unused funds will go to the next program. Apparently, the whole problem is in the calculations.
But today we can conclude that there will be less money. Even taking into account the fact that they will not have time to master within the framework of the previous program. And already little by little information is leaking out about who will help the GPV program to shrink.
I'll start with the sad (for someone) news about what will NOT happen.
The fleet will be the most affected by the cuts.
There will be no nuclear-powered supercarriers of Project Storm. They were not just put on the back burner, but for an "indefinite period." What in our reality can be equated with the fact that if aircraft carriers go into final development, then it will definitely not be in the next 10-15 years.
The same applies to the destroyers of the Leader project. Unlike the aircraft carrier, all work on them was postponed until after 2025.
Yes, it is obvious that we do not have very good finances, so there may be promising, but expensive ships postponed "for later."
At the same time, it cannot be said that the fleet was "offended". In GPV-2025, the fleet will receive more funds for repairs, modernization and completion than any other type of troops.
Borei will keep the same pace of construction. This is our weapon of defense and retaliation, everything is in order with the submarine missile carriers.
Nuclear icebreakers of project 22220 will be completed under the GPV. "Arctic", "Siberia" and "Ural". What does nuclear icebreakers have to do with the navy? It's easy to read. In general, the program for the construction of ships and vessels for the Arctic will not be cut by a ruble. This is what many say, referring to the task given by the president.
In the Arctic group, within the framework of GPV-2025, work will also continue with the Ilya Muromets icebreaker and Project 23550 universal patrol ships of the Arctic zone.
Repairs and upgrades.
It is clear that in a crisis and other problems, the main burden of the work will fall on the "oldies". Within the framework of the GPV, the modernization of "Peter the Great", "Admiral Kuznetsov", "Moscow" will be carried out.
It would be nice, by the way, to finish the repair of the Admiral Nakhimov.
In general, the fleet will not suffer. Yes, work on promising aircraft carriers and destroyers has been postponed. But today our fleet has more significant tasks than aircraft carriers. The Syrian Express showed that we have a shortage of less expensive but more significant ships and vessels.
Videoconferencing.
There are also abbreviations here.
Although the cuts in funding will not hit the videoconferencing much. The emphasis will be on the supply of Su-30SM, Su-34, Su-35 combat aircraft, Mi-8AMTSh, Mi-28N and Ka-52 helicopters, well-proven by the Syrian war, to the aviation units, as well as S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems.
S-400, which are supplied to the troops in the amount of 4-5 regimental sets per year, are likely to prefer the promising S-500. Until more stable times.
The same will apparently befall the PAK DA. Another promising, but very expensive project. Of course, PAK DA will be implemented, but not in GPV-2025.
Moreover, we are developing a project for the modernization of the Tu-160 to the modification of the Tu-160M2. Most likely, the Tu-160M2 will go into production until 2025 and will serve. Two projects of strategic bombers at the same time - this is not all rich countries can afford.
But the first production T-50 fighters within the framework of GPV-2025 should already be in units and at airfields.
In addition, much attention is paid to transport aviation. It is within the framework of GPV-2025 that light transport aircraft Il-112 and medium Il-214 should begin to enter the troops. The role of heavy transport aircraft is still assigned to the Il-76 of all modifications.
Ground troops.
The 70% figure for new technology by 2020 is serious. And the pace should be appropriate. Yes, the share of the same new tanks will be 70% by 2020. But not at the expense of "Armat", but at the expense of the T-72B3.
"Armata" is not postponed indefinitely, but we are no longer talking about hundreds of new tanks, but about more modest numbers. 20-30 tanks a year is, most likely, exactly the amount that can be expected in terms of budget cuts.
Nevertheless, this number of tanks will provide both the initial stage of training crews and specialists, and the testing of new equipment in the army.
So "Armata" will be in the army, albeit not in such quantity as everyone expected, but still we can talk about mass production.
But we will most likely be able to see the Kurganets-25 BMP and the Boomerang armored personnel carrier in the series only after 2025. Both vehicles had to be refined according to the wishes of the military, and revision in conditions of a lack of money does not speed up the process.
A few more words about air defense. In the GPV-2025 program, more attention is paid to air defense systems than in the GPV-2011 program. According to available data, the deliveries of the Buk-M3, Tor-M2, S-300V4, Pantsir C1, modernized Shilka and Tunguska complexes will not only remain unchanged, but may even be increased.
Of course, you need to have a full guarantee of protection from lovers of swinging "axes".
There are two more promising developments that will not play on the back burner, and work on them will not be phased out. These are the Sarmat missile and the Barguzin railroad missile complex.
On the whole, it is still difficult to say who will emerge victorious from the desire of the Ministry of Defense to get everything faster and from the Ministry of Finance's opposition in the desire to prevent spending budget money on expensive toys from “tomorrow”. The final auction, which will take place in June this year, will show everything.
It is difficult to talk about which is worse: greed or the need to get money for everything at once.
On the one hand, we really need everything. And more. And new, preferably unparalleled in the rest of the world. But it’s probably worth setting real goals. A nuclear aircraft carrier is, of course, great. Impact power, prestige and all that.
However, the ongoing operation in Syria has shown that we have more than enough pressing problems, including in terms of the fleet. I mean bulk carriers purchased wherever possible, which were suddenly needed to supply the operation. It is good that the Turks had something to sell and rent out. And thanks to the Mongols for mediating the purchase of a vessel from Ukraine.
It is difficult, of course, to restore and compensate for everything that was lost earlier. But - it is necessary, because we are talking about the country's defense capability. Let's see where the sides come to in June.
