In one of his speeches the other day, our president once again reminded the defense industry representatives that the rearmament program is designed until 2020 and it is worthwhile to properly treat the development of budget funds, so that later …
And by the way, what then?
In general, the year 2020 looks like a kind of borderline, after which everything will develop according to some other scenario.
As it seemed to me personally, all the speeches at the ongoing series of meetings with representatives of the Ministry of Defense and the defense industry come down to one thing. Naturally, money. And here I see some kind of hint from the president that the state defense order is a state defense order, but, firstly, it is necessary to execute it properly, secondly - not to steal, and thirdly - to think about tomorrow.
Each of the three points is important.
Let's think a little about this topic. Yes, the stagnation caused by the past years of "democratic development" of our country seems to have been overcome in the part that concerns the army. Fact. New types of weapons are not only being developed, they are actually being delivered to the troops. Not as test samples, but as in service.
However, we ran into a crisis along the way. Both globally and personally organized for us. And here the very "movements" began that cannot please the representatives of the defense industry complex. This is primarily a reduction in the production of new types of weapons.
We all know examples. These are both the T-50 and the Armata, which will enter service, but not in the quantities originally announced.
The question is why, even somewhat tactless, or something. There are simply not enough funds.
The sums that the Defense Ministry and the defense industry would like to spend on the development and equipment of our army are really unaffordable for the country's economy.
But both the Defense Ministry and the design bureaus and defense industry enterprises are right that these sums are necessary to maintain Russia's defense capability.
The question is not put in such a way that costs should be cut. It is clear that they have already been cut, and cut very well. And, apparently, they will continue to cut. The question is posed differently. What is the most effective and painless way for the country to make sure that the wolves (the Defense Ministry and the defense industry complex) are fed and the sheep are safe. Whom I mean by sheep, I hope it's clear.
In essence, one should think not about how economically profitable to spend money, but about how to raise the economy itself. If Russia, that is, we, doubled its GDP (as many said from the high stands and in front of television cameras), then there would be nothing to save. Any amount would be affordable. But alas, today we have what we have.
Perhaps there is still a way out. Enough has been said about this too, but the cart, as usual, is in the same place. But everything, on the one hand, is quite simple, on the other hand, it will look like a revolution.
Can such things as the nationalization of the fuel and energy complex, heavy industry and mechanical engineering be compared with a revolution? Quite. And it seems utterly impossible, because it provides exactly what was in 1917, with the only difference that everything handed out, more precisely, privatized, needs to be returned back to the state.
And today, much of what the country earns goes not to its budget, but feeds a dozen oligarchs. Alas, but the reality of today.
No less important is the development of the Russian light industry, which is greatly infringed upon for the sake of import producers. Specifically, the production of goods for the population. It is difficult, but it is possible to imagine how many fully-fledged Russian rubles are converted into no less full-fledged dollars and euros and go abroad through imported goods and services.
And in this our defense industry enterprises can play a very real role. Let's not talk about Gorbachev's absolutely miserable "conversion" program, it is better to recall the Soviet system of "cover", when military enterprises produced televisions, receivers, tape recorders, electric stoves, hair dryers, mixers, and so on, which were quite normal for that time.
There is one more point voiced by Putin, which I have already mentioned. About the correct use of funds. I don’t want to say that our defense industry and defense industry, no matter how much the budget feeds, will not be enough for them, no. But there are times when the breadth of spending causes, if not anger, then surprise for sure.
And since the Soviet era, our defense industry has not adapted so well to market conditions. It is unrealistic to survive without government orders and foreign trade. Export is great, but there is a subtle point. Not everything that is produced can be sent to allies and partners even for decent money.
That is why 2020, probably, not only in my minds sat down not only as a calendar date, but also as a point of a possible new starting point. Of course, such a moment when we completely renew the aircraft fleet, the fleet of armored vehicles, complete the construction of all mortgaged ships, it is unlikely to come at all, because technology does not last forever. Although about tanks, for example, you can't say that.
If we just imagine that all the requests of the Ministry of Defense have been fulfilled and the state will no longer need to purchase so many weapons. What will come then?
I think this is a nightmare for many. Yes, as I said, this is unlikely to happen, but still.
There will be problems. Even despite the fact that our weapons are very popular in the world today, and many are ready to buy them. But external affairs are one thing, and internal affairs are completely different. And it is worth noting that the civil sector at the enterprises of the military-industrial complex has practically been completely destroyed.
And this is largely the fault of the state itself.
One of the participants in the meeting asked Putin on camera: "What are we going to release the pots again?"
I don’t know which is better. Establish the production of pots, if they are in demand among Russians, or still buy them in China. For dollars.
Digress a little. I wanted to give myself a cast cauldron for a long time. I had to go to the other end of the city, because I didn't want to take Chinese. Well, they do not look Kazan, thank God, I know how a real cauldron should look like. Bought. I was surprised to see on the label: "Izhstal", the city of Izhevsk. There pots do not bother anyone. Pleasantly.
The situation is such that you can count on the state order, but do not make a mistake yourself. Examples? Excuse me. Omsktransmash. We wrote about the situation at the plant, when mass layoffs began, because there was no work. But, fortunately, everything has changed, and the plant is working. How long is the question!
Today (I emphasize) everything has more or less improved. There is a work. And tomorrow? And after 2020?
Let me remind you that our airlines (and some even with state participation) still carry passengers on Boeings and Airbuses and are in no hurry to order Russian aircraft.
Let's be honest: Russia no longer actually has its own merchant fleet, and meanwhile the merchant fleet in many countries was the first reserve of the Navy. Is it worth recalling the origin stories of the famous German raiders in the world wars?
And we, excuse me, drove Turkish and Greek ferries to support the Olympics and the Crimea. To ensure supplies to Syria, we charter ships all in the same Turkey …
Can the defense industry complex become the cornerstone on which our economy can firmly establish itself?
There is only one answer: of course, yes.
But for this, excuse me, our government and our relatively seemingly Central Bank are obliged, yes, OBLIGED to direct money not to purchase US debt bills, not to keep the mythical inflation and not to maintain the dollar exchange rate.
We need to develop domestic production and start with what is left. From the enterprises of the military-industrial complex, if only because they are for the most part under the control of the state. And this can ensure proper control over both quality and honesty.
In general, it is worth taking a closer look at what Putin sometimes says. The results are so … extraordinary.
