Some factories of the rocket and space industry switched to three-shift work. Despite all the efforts being made, the implementation of the plan for rearmament of the Strategic Missile Forces (Strategic Missile Forces) has shifted to the right by a year, and in the future the gap with the plan may increase to two years.
In November 2011, Sergei Naryshkin, then the head of the presidential administration of the Russian Federation, during a visit to the test site near Luga in the Leningrad region, said that the share of modern military equipment in the Strategic Missile Forces by 2020 will be 100%. Together with him, Dmitry Rogozin, who then held the post of Russia's permanent representative to NATO, was present at the training ground. A month later, becoming Deputy Prime Minister in charge of the military-industrial complex, Rogozin over the years has repeatedly repeated the thesis about the renewal of the strategic nuclear forces by 100% by 2020.
In December 2014, at an expanded meeting of the board of the Ministry of Defense, Sergei Shoigu noted: the equipment of the strategic nuclear forces (SNF) with modern weapons has been brought to 56%.
In the spring of 2015, the media, including those belonging to the Ministry of Defense, reported that the share of modern complexes in the Strategic Missile Forces, taking into account the rearmament at Yars, is about 50%. It is planned that in 2016 it will be increased to 60%, and in 2021 - to 100%.
Let's make a reservation right away: the Strategic Missile Forces is one of the components of the nuclear triad, the largest in terms of the number of nuclear warheads and their carriers, as well as the most intensively updated, in contrast to the naval and aviation components. At least that's how it should be. If in December 2014 the share of new weapons in the strategic nuclear forces as a whole amounted to 56%, then in five months in the Strategic Missile Forces it could not drop to 50%, if only due to the fact that the Strategic Missile Forces were being updated at a faster pace.
In May 2016, the press service of the Strategic Missile Forces disseminated information in which she quoted Colonel-General Sergei Karakaev: “According to the commander of the Strategic Missile Forces, the share of new missile systems in the Strategic Missile Forces grouping will constantly increase. Today it is already 56%”.
In other words, the information in the media turned out to be correct - the 56% indicator in the Strategic Missile Forces was achieved not in 2014, and not even in 2015, but in 2016.
If we talk about the nuclear triad as a whole, then its renewal is proceeding strictly according to plan. In December 2016, speaking at the expanded collegium of the Ministry of Defense, Sergei Shoigu said: “41 new ballistic missiles have been delivered to the Armed Forces. This made it possible to reach a 60% level of equipping the nuclear triad with modern weapons."
If the renewal of the strategic nuclear forces as a whole occurs in a planned manner, then why are the terms of renewal of the Strategic Missile Forces constantly shifting to the right? Over the past three years, a lag has accumulated in the implementation of plans for re-equipping the Strategic Missile Forces by about one year. If this pace continues, the gap with the plan will increase by one more year over the next three years. It is no coincidence that in May last year the press service of the Strategic Missile Forces reported: "The Supreme Commander-in-Chief set us a task to bring the share of modern missile weapons to 100% by 2022." Thus, the lagging behind the Strategic Missile Forces themselves is two years.
The Ministry of Defense continues to insist that the industry fulfills its plans not in 2022, but at least in 2021. This is the last time line, but he is already on the verge of a foul. After this period, it will be possible to say that the program of rearmament of the Strategic Missile Forces has been disrupted, since the budget funds allocated for it will run out.
“Currently, a large-scale equipping of the Strategic Missile Forces and the naval nuclear deterrent forces with modern strategic missile systems is underway, and long-range aviation aircraft are being modernized. This will allow them to be equipped with modern weapons up to 72% by 2021, which will ensure that the nuclear deterrent potential is maintained at the required level, General of the Army Sergei Shoigu said on January 12, 2017 in an introductory lecture on the Army and Society course intended for officers., officials and members of the public. Thus, the minister confirmed that the renewal dates from 2020 are postponed to 2021.
There is a significant circumstance that makes it necessary to comply with this deadline. In the first half of this year, it is planned to throw tests of a new heavy missile RS-28 "Sarmat", which should replace the RS-20V "Voevoda", produced in Ukraine. In the Military Balance 2016 catalog of the British International Institute for Strategic Studies, it is indicated that 54 more Ukrainian missiles remain on alert in Russia, the service life of which will end in the early 2020s. By this time, one of the factories must be prepared for the production of the RS-28. This is especially important given the deployment in the West of a missile defense (ABM) system that heavy missiles can penetrate.
At the same time, Sergei Shoigu suggested that a gradual transfer of the deterrent factor from the nuclear to the non-nuclear plane is possible in the future. “By 2021, it is planned to more than quadruple the combat capabilities of the domestic strategic non-nuclear forces, which will make it possible to fully solve the tasks of non-nuclear deterrence,” the Minister of Defense said.
However, setting tasks for the military department for 2017, Russian President Vladimir Putin called the first key task the strengthening of the combat potential of strategic nuclear forces through missile systems capable of guaranteed overcoming existing and future missile defense systems. And only in conjunction with the strategic nuclear forces - to bring strategic non-nuclear forces to a qualitatively new level. At the same time, Putin promised all outsiders in the defense industry the most stringent sanctions for breaking contracts.
Suppliers of ballistic missiles this year will have to think hard about how to fulfill the order of the Ministry of Defense and at the same time avoid the storming, which has never led to an improvement in the quality of finished products.
