For the exhibition "Oboronexpo-2012" TSAMTO publishes an analysis of the world market for new armored vehicles in 2008-2011. and a forecast for the next 4 years (2012-2015).
For domestic manufacturers, this dynamically growing segment is of great interest, since Russia is just beginning to "break through" to this market. So far, Russia's presence in this segment of the world market (as opposed to the MBT and armored combat vehicles categories) is very modest. For the period 2008-2015 TsAMTO estimates the share of Russia in this market segment at 2% in terms of quantity and 0.6% in terms of the value of supply.
According to TsAMTO, in the coming 4-year period (2012-2015), the volume of export sales of new armored vehicles in the world market will be at least 8834 units. in the amount of 4, 16 billion dollars in case of fulfillment of delivery schedules for current contracts, declared intentions and ongoing tenders.
This figure as a result for the period 2012-2015. will be significantly higher, since TSAMTO provides statistics on the available global order portfolio at the current moment, and the armored car market differs in that the period from the moment of contract conclusion to actual deliveries (due to the specifics of manufacturing) is rather small. However, the result for the period 2012-2015. expected to be lower than 2008-2011 First of all, this is due to the possible temporary oversaturation of the market in connection with the intention of the United States to sell or "transfer" to a number of countries in the Middle East and Central Asian regions a significant part of the armored vehicles in service with the US Armed Forces after the withdrawal of troops from Iraq and Afghanistan. Nevertheless, even if the United States implements these plans, the market glut will be short-term and will affect the decline in global demand for new armored vehicles only for 2-3 years. In general, in the future, this segment will be the most dynamically developing among all categories of armored vehicles.
According to TsAMTO, in the past 4-year period (2008-2011), at least 21,960 new armored vehicles worth $ 9.5 billion were exported or manufactured under license in the world.
In total, during this period, 22,900 armored vehicles were exported in the amount of 9, 57 billion dollars. At the same time, the volume of sales of new armored vehicles amounted to 95.9% of the total or 99.3% of the value of global supplies.
Large volume of supplies in 2008-2011 was due, inter alia, to the transfer of surplus equipment from the US Armed Forces contingent to the formed Armed Forces of Afghanistan and Iraq (in 2012-2015 there will be a similar situation with the massive transfer of surplus equipment to other countries in the region - see above).
According to the TsAMTO methodology, the “new” category includes deliveries of new armored vehicles worth at least $ 0.1 million, licensed programs, as well as deliveries from the Armed Forces of exporting countries, upgraded to the level of practically new vehicles with extended service life, the price of which at the time deliveries account for more than 50% of the cost of a new armored vehicle of the same type for the same period of time.
The group of "armored vehicles" ("armored vehicles") is mainly composed of armored vehicles with a 4x4 wheel arrangement. The same group includes military reconnaissance vehicles, armored trucks and other vehicles, which, in terms of their weight and dimensions, cannot be classified as “armored combat vehicles”. The analogs of the American armored SUV "Humvee" are assigned to the lower limit of the class.
In the ranking below, exporting countries are ranked by the number of delivered and planned for delivery of armored vehicles. A number of countries have orders with due dates outside the period under review (2016 onwards). This analysis takes into account only those deliveries (including those under long-term contracts) that are planned for the period up to 2015 inclusive.
First place in the rating of suppliers of new armored vehicles for the period 2008-2015. the ideological integrator of the use of machines of this class - the United States (17970 machines worth $ 5.86 billion) - is by far behind the competitors. In the first four-year period, 14,515 vehicles were exported for the amount of 4.594 billion dollars, the backlog of orders for 2012-2015. currently there are 3455 new cars worth 1.265 billion dollars. Exports in both periods are mostly provided by the supply of armored vehicles to the troops of the coalition countries for use in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Second place goes to South Africa (3281 vehicles worth $ 2.157 billion) with armored vehicles of the RG family. In 2008-2011. 2925 armored vehicles were exported for the amount of 1, 945 billion dollars, the backlog of orders for 2012-2015. so far is 356 armored vehicles in the amount of 212, 5 million dollars.
Third place in the ranking is Italy with armored vehicles of the company "Iveco" (2586 vehicles worth 1.683 billion dollars). In the first four-year period, 910 armored vehicles worth $ 689 million were exported, a package of orders for 2012-2015. amounts to 1,676 new vehicles worth $ 994 million (a significant part of this package falls on deliveries ordered by the Russian Ministry of Defense).
Fourth place France ranks among the suppliers of new armored vehicles (665 vehicles worth 443.8 million dollars). In the first four-year period, 65 armored vehicles were exported for $ 36.3 million, a package of orders for 2012-2015. at the moment there are 600 new cars in the amount of 407, 5 million dollars.
Fifth place with a large family of products offered in this segment is occupied by Great Britain (662 cars worth 318, 3 million dollars). In 2008-2011. 579 armored vehicles worth $ 232.9 million were exported. Book of orders for 2012-2015 while it is 83 units. in the amount of 85, 4 million dollars. It should be noted that the UK, which actually owns enterprises in the United States and South Africa, is one of the world leaders in the armored vehicle production sector, however, TSAMTO, according to the adopted methodology, assigns the export of products to the country in which the product was developed and produced.
Sixth place is occupied by Russia mainly with the armored car "Tiger" (654 vehicles worth 80, 3 million dollars). In the first four-year period, 204 armored vehicles were exported for $ 26.3 million, the projected volume of deliveries in 2012-2015. could amount to 450 new vehicles worth 54 million dollars in case of full implementation of agreements with China, which is currently the largest customer of armored vehicles "Tiger".
Seventh place Switzerland is in the ranking (636 cars worth 448, 2 million dollars). The bulk of the sales of Swiss armored vehicles was provided by the supply of the Duro-3 and Eagle-4 models by the Movag company to the EU countries. In the first four-year period, 496 armored vehicles were exported for the amount of 329.7 million dollars, for 2012-2015. the package of orders is 140 new cars in the amount of 118.5 million dollars.
Eighth place occupies Germany (500 vehicles worth 587, 2 million dollars), mainly with armored vehicles "Dingo-2" and "Fenneck". All deliveries were completed in the first four-year period.
Ninth place with armored vehicles "Cobra" is occupied by Turkey (348 vehicles in the amount of 155, 9 million dollars). In the first four-year period, 333 armored vehicles were delivered for export in the amount of $ 143.4 million, for 2012-2015. the package of orders for the current moment is 15 new cars in the amount of 12, 5 million dollars.
Tenth place Sweden ranks in the ranking (283 cars worth $ 366.5 million). The bulk of the sales volume of the Swedish articulated armored vehicles BvS-10 and Bv-206S is provided by deliveries to the EU countries. In the first four-year period, 245 armored vehicles were delivered for export in the amount of $ 273.2 million, for 2012-2015. the package of orders is 38 units. in the amount of 93, 2 million dollars.
China, Israel, Spain, Singapore, United Arab Emirates, Austria, Poland, Belgium, Australia, Indonesia and Brazil are ranked 11th to 21st in the ranking.
It should be noted that in the category "tender", the results of which have not yet been summed up, in the period under review (2012-2015) the volume of supplies (if the stated schedules are observed) is expected in the amount of 1952 units. in the amount of about 864 million dollars, which may to some extent affect the position in the ranking of the world's leading exporters of armored vehicles.
Fully report on the world market of new armored vehicles for the period 2008-2015. will be published in World Arms Trade magazine # 6.
