Recently, in the press and on the Internet, materials and remarks began to appear frequently that, through the economic crisis, Russia would make it possible to step over not investments in the real sector of the economy with the support of production, but “maintaining the balance of payments on the basis of a well-thought-out exchange and banking policy”, as well as “western experience . They say, why invest in our own production sphere, when there are India and China, where the level of industrial production will allow providing products to Russia, including … They say, Russian products are still not able to compete with foreign ones, because “hands do not grow from there” …
It is alarming that some leading economic experts adhere to approximately the same logic, ready to follow the image and likeness of the 90s to bend a line based on purely speculative processes, including the next rounds of the privatization mechanism.
When they say that it is necessary to take as a basis the experience of countries that have switched to a liberal economic model or have embarked on this path, the question arises: what kind of experience are we talking about? Since, for obvious reasons, the question is being asked into a void, it is worth trying to independently search for that "advanced liberal-economic experience", which Russia is again offered to be guided by.
In this regard, it will be fair if the assessment of "advanced experience" is based on the "leaders" of the post-Soviet space. They seem to be, and will be closer, and indeed - the starting line for the former Soviet republics was in many respects similar. This is mainly about the insane "joy" that "the long-awaited freedom and democracy have come to us" …
One of the economic "leaders" of the post-Soviet space is, of course, Moldova. Well, how else … Judge for yourself: the country has "succeeded" so much that it was almost-almost associated with the European Union. Moldovan citizens with biometric passports have the opportunity to enter the EU countries without a visa. As it would be said in Ukraine: the total remission. And what, in fact, with the economy and specifically with production? And here the "reversal" is completely unconditional …
Turning to statistical data, it is necessary to touch upon the issue of industrial production in Moldova in Soviet times and compare it with today. So, in 1989, the share of industrial production in the economy of Moldova was 37% (this is 9th place among all Soviet republics). And this, by the way, is 4% higher than the average world level of the same year. Of these Moldovan industrial percentages, 34% is the food industry, 23% is light industry, 21% is mechanical engineering, about 7% is the pulp and paper industry. In Soviet times, factories for the production of building materials, enterprises of the metallurgical complex, and chemical plants operated in Moldova. Today the term “Moldovan industry” has become a kind of oxymoron - a combination of the same category as “white black” or “interest-free credit” …
In 2011, the share of industrial production in the Moldovan economy fell to 17.6%. 24% of the population were officially declared as citizens living below the poverty line. In 2015, the level of Moldovan production - according to all the canons of a liberal economy and against the background of an irrepressible desire for European integration - decreased by another 5% (and this is only according to official data), the growth in the number of the poor accelerated. The fall in income in the agricultural sector, which has always been the main economic locomotive for Moldova, has exceeded 30% over the past 4 years! The main stage of the fall is associated with the restrictive measures of Russia. Pro-European and openly pro-Romanian politicians stated that “soon the EU market will open for Moldovan products”. The market “opened” so that the European quotas did not make even a tenth of what Moldovan farmers previously sold to Russia.
At the same time, Europe actually announced that no one really needed Moldovan industrial goods in the EU, and allocated money to close several large industries at once with simultaneous investment in “other sectors of the economy”. The Moldovan authorities have found an alternative to “other sectors” in the form of their own pockets. Credit funds were simply stolen … Industrial facilities were closed, but they did it without providing the staff with new jobs.
One of the examples is JSC Moldkarton. The plant, built in 1989, at one time supplied the republic (and not only its one) with high-quality cardboard for packaging products. Supplied, however, not for long. In fact, the full-fledged work of the cardboard production plant can be called the years before the collapse of the USSR. As soon as the Country of Soviets ceased to exist, they ordered to live long and ties with suppliers of raw materials, as well as ties with sales markets. It was possible to load production capacity by no more than 25-30%. By the mid-90s, it turned out that it was not economically profitable to maintain the enterprise, it is a defaulter for the supplied electricity, and in general … who needs that cardboard (this is approximately how the country's authorities reasoned)?..
Not without the help of Russia, in the early 2000s, Moldkarton was still loaded with work, and the plant seemed to feel a surge of energy. Russia, Georgia, Poland began to buy its products. However, later on there were new problems - either exposed corruption schemes, or relations with offshore companies, or new claims from the Moldovan authorities. "To the heap" environmentalists announced that the enterprise also pollutes the air of Moldovan freedom …
The enterprise was bankrupt, closed, everything was taken out of its workshops, the workshops themselves were destroyed, having handed over the discovered metal to the nearest collection points. And this can be considered a victory of European integration, the highest achievement of the liberal economy, which the European "partners" advertised to the Moldovans.
Neighboring Ukraine is following the same path of "great economic change". On the eve, the head of the Ministry of Finance of the "independent" Natalya Yaresko announced that one of the ways of Ukraine's success is getting into the IMF lending program. At the same time, Yaresko noted: it is not at all necessary to get acquainted with the program, they say, if you get into it, then this is already a step towards economic prosperity.
Against the background of Ms. Yaresko's statements, the Ukrainian aircraft-building concern Antonov, founded in 1946, ceased to exist. Ukrainian economists decided that Antonov should be shut down by transferring it to the fold of Ukroboronprom. Attention is drawn to the fact that "Antonov" is one of the few industrial enterprises "Independent", which in 2015 reported an increase in income. Apparently, certain representatives of the Maidan authorities decided to "control" the growth of income, and for this it was necessary to arrange a session of thimble game with the question "guess, under what thimble" Antonov "and his income?"
Industrial statistics of Ukraine for 1989. The indicator is more than impressive - the share of industry in the economy of the USSR exceeded 45%. In 2013, this figure was already 29.6%. In 2015, if you believe the materials published by the website of the TC "112 Ukraine" fell by 23, 5% in relation to 2013. Automotive production alone collapsed by nearly 71.3%.
Ukrainian politicians, like Moldovan ones, also announced: nothing, they say, terrible, the Euroassociation will help us! But, firstly, there is still no full-fledged economic Euroassociation (the Dutch are still thinking …), and, secondly, the emergence of a free trade zone between Ukraine and the EU, again like in Moldova, led to the appearance of ridiculous quotas. Euroquotas for the same agricultural products from Ukraine are on an annualized basis no more than half of what Ukraine supplied to Russia for the quarter.
If we take into account the half-killed industry of Donbass, then Ukraine is following the "correct" liberal-economic path. And there are many such examples in the post-Soviet space alone (including, for example, the Baltic countries).
It cannot be said that everything is perfect in Russia in this regard. But here the question is this: it turns out that those who give advice on "liberalization" and "Europeanization" of the vector of the country's economy are ready to make a Ukrainian-Moldovan analogy out of this economy with all the consequences for industrial production and growth?..
