The new management of the legendary Ukrainian aviation enterprise "Antonov" dreams of reaching the level of production of the USSR - 200 aircraft per year, and in cooperation with the West. Such statements look like sheer fantasy, and there are few real benefits from joint projects with Europe for Ukraine itself. The next reform of the Ukrainian aviation industry will most likely end with its final liquidation.
The management of the Ukrainian aviation concern Antonov at the Le Bourget air show announced the company's ambitious plans. Their essence boils down to the fact that instead of diminishing historical cooperation with Russia (due to Kiev's ban on military-technical cooperation with a neighbor), Antonov is trying to survive by cooperating with other countries, and not only European ones.
“The President and the Government of Ukraine have identified the aviation sector as strategic for the security and economy of the state,” said Roman Romanov, the new general director of Ukroboronprom Group of Companies (which includes Antonov Group of Companies). The main goal is to increase the annual production of aircraft to 50 units per year, and "then to reach the level of production of the USSR - 200 aircraft per year," Romanov said quite seriously.
Considering that in the period from 2000 to 2013 in Ukraine annually produced from zero to six aircraft, the plan to reach the level of 50 aircraft per year already looks extremely ambitious. As for the Soviet indicators, they are completely from the category of fantasy.
“To reach the capacity of the Soviet years, that is, about 200 aircraft per year, the company needs at least similar infrastructure, capacity and the ability to obtain units and components under conditions that allow it to win at a price with competitors. It is difficult even with the support of European and American manufacturers. And given the high level of political instability in the country, foreign investment is unlikely to flow like a river in the coming years,”says Dmitry Lepeshkin from QB Finance.
But the cooperation between Ukraine and Russia after the collapse of the USSR was based on the fact that Ukraine had a strong scientific groundwork, developers and engines, while Russia had production capacity, money and demand.
The following words of the protege of the new government sounded no less surprising: "Ukrainian citizens will fly by planes of Ukrainian production." The plans are even more fantastic given that Ukraine simply does not have the full line of civil aircraft required for modern airlines.
Romanov states that Antonov State Enterprise today has powerful intellectual, material and managerial capabilities to become the world leader in the aircraft industry. Let's say there is no doubt about the intellectual potential of the Ukrainian aviation industry, but with the material and managerial capabilities, the top manager clearly got excited. Ukraine had to abandon Russian orders, and there is not much money in the budget: the country itself is in debt, and it will take not even years, but at least a decade to get out of the crisis and restore the financial system.
The announced new projects of Antonov, designed to be implemented without cooperation with the Russian aviation industry, look no less fantastic or threaten with the loss of intellectual property and technologies.
First, "Antonov" announced the development of the An-132 aircraft project, which so far exists only on paper. In fact, it will be a modernized An-32, created in Soviet times. This project is surprising in that it is not about setting up production in Ukraine, but actually about selling technology abroad, and not even to Europe, but to the Middle East.
In Le Bourget, the Antonov company announced with pride that it had reached an agreement with Saudi Arabia and promised to build a plant on Arab territory for the production of this aircraft. Technology will be provided by German specialists, construction will be supervised by Ukraine, and construction will mainly be local. According to the laws of Saudi Arabia, their employees in such a scheme must be at least 70%.
The essence of the deal: the King Abdul-Aziz Scientific and Technological Center (KACST) and the local investment company Taqnia Aeronautics, together with Antonov, will complete the revision of the existing model of the An-32 aircraft. In fact, the Saudis will give money so that Ukrainian engineers bring the aircraft's characteristics to mind in terms of payload, flight range and takeoff parameters, and also cut fuel consumption by 30%. This will be the new An-132 model. At the same time, Saudi Arabia will receive intellectual property rights for the aircraft along with its drawings.
The Saudis want to lay the first stone of the plant already in 2016, and in 2017 at Le Bourget they should show a brand new An-132 already in metal.
The Saudis are attracted by the fact that this transport plane can land in sand dunes, fly in dust storms and in heat up to 50 degrees, while it is practical and cheap. And there is a demand for such an aircraft in the world aviation market. After all, such an aircraft (when it is modified) is indispensable for military aviation, for cargo transportation, and for emergency services.
Earlier it was said that Saudi Arabia is ready to invest $ 3 billion in this project. But the pragmatic Arabs are not going to invest them in Ukrainian production, and for some reason Kiev turns a blind eye to it and even rejoices.
Why does Antonov and Ukraine need to create aircraft construction in a foreign country, and not revive it at home? “If production is organized in another country - taxes will be paid in Saudi Arabia, jobs will be created in Saudi Arabia, and Antonov will most likely receive only royalties, royalties and fulfill orders for the manufacture of a certain percentage of nodes , - says Dmitry Lepeshkin from QB Finance to the VZGLYAD newspaper. Potential payments from the Saudis for each plane sold is clearly not the scale of the profit that Ukraine could have had.
Thus, the announced project itself looks promising, only the budget of Ukraine, which means that ordinary Ukrainians will receive grains from it.
Another project that Ukroboronprom proudly presented in Le Bourget is the transport An-188, which is supposed to carry cargo up to 40 tons. In fact, this is a revised An-70 with a new engine. Several options are being considered as an engine: a Ukrainian turbojet (which is also proposed to be used on the An-178) or the AI-28, which is currently being developed (both are produced by Motor Sich). The use of Western-made engines is also offered as an option. Equipment and systems of An-188 should be "Ukrainian and Western production".
And finally, "Antonov" is going to develop a "westernized" modification of the An-178, equipping it with fully Western equipment and a General Electric CF34-10 or Pratt & Whitney PW1500 series engine. The goal of westernization is to replace Russian components with European ones. Kiev is going to do this with the help of Poland. Recently, at the Ukrainian-Polish forum, Antonov announced that, together with Warsaw, it would Westernize the entire An family and would also organize joint production of aircraft based on the An models.
However, apart from discussions, the matter has not yet reached real agreements - and is unlikely to come.“Firstly, Poland is not an aircraft building power that could help Ukraine in some way. Ukraine is a hundred heads taller, in fact it is an aircraft-building power. And everything that was built in Poland was Russian licenses thanks to Soviet history. Nothing independent was created there, and there is no such aviation school as in Ukraine,”says Roman Gusarov, editor of the Avia.ru portal. “All they could do to help Ukraine is money, if Poland had it. But she herself would make ends meet,”the aviation expert notes.
And the project of westernization of the An aircraft means that it has to go the same road, difficult and long way that Sukhoi SuperJet 100 once traveled. Because replacing Russian components and assemblies with European ones means practically creating an aircraft from scratch, which will still get certified.
For example: only testing and certification of the Russian SSJ 100 aircraft took four years (from 2008 to 2011). Investments in this project from the beginning of development to a commercial flight in 2011 are estimated at $ 7 billion, almost half of which was provided by the state. Kiev does not have that kind of money, nor does a potential partner - Poland. Nothing has been heard of others who want to invest in the Ukrainian Antonov and in the westernization of the An family.
“If we talk about the production of civilian jet airliners, then the position of Antonov is not as stable as in the market of turboprop aircraft. The main customer today is Russia, for which Antonov has already completed a significant part of the orders. It will be extremely difficult for Antonov to enter the world market, dominated by European Airbus and American Boeing.
Even with support from Europe and the United States, Antonov does not intend to take away a significant market share from these titans, Dmitry Lepeshkin is sure. At the same time, Europe and the United States do not show any desire to help the Ukrainian aircraft industry.
And the transfer of aircraft to European components is again extremely unprofitable for Ukraine itself. “If the main components and even engines are of foreign production, then, in fact, we are talking about SKD assembly, and not about full-fledged production,” the expert notes. Not to mention the fact that an increase in the share of imports will make the cost of production in Ukraine high, and the final product will lose its competitiveness. Meanwhile, with financial support, Antonov himself is able to organize the production of a full cycle of aircraft at its own facilities with a minimum share of imports, Lepeshkin notes.
However, all announced deals pursue exactly the opposite goals. And this means only one thing - they are extremely disadvantageous to the country. Kiev literally sells the competence of Ukraine as one of the aircraft-building powers thanks to the legendary designer Antonov. In the end, she will simply lose this title.
