In the period from 2025 onward, the Russian promising frontline aviation complex (PAK FA) and the American F-35 will become uncontested products in the world market of modern multifunctional fighters.
By this time, the vast majority of countries that pay due attention to the development of military aviation will fully satisfy their needs for the purchase of fighters of generations 4, 4+ and 4 ++, and they will face the question of purchasing fifth-generation aircraft to replace obsolete fourth-generation aircraft of the first batches. that were delivered in the 1990s.
The F-22 Raptor was the first fifth generation fighter to enter service. The first F-22A, the development of which lasted about 20 years, entered service with the US Air Force in 2004. Initially, the US Air Force planned to purchase 381 F-22 aircraft. In December 2004, by decision of the US Secretary of Defense, this number was reduced to 180 units. In 2005, the Air Force managed to achieve an increase in the order volume to 183 aircraft. Despite the efforts of the leadership of the US Air Force to continue the purchase of the F-22, the Pentagon in April 2009 decided to stop the program. At the end of 2009, after a lengthy discussion in Congress, the program for further purchases of the F-22 "Raptor" was canceled due to its high cost. Under previously signed contracts, the production of fighters will continue until early 2012, after which the F-22 assembly line at the Lockheed Martin facilities should be closed.
Nevertheless, some chance of obtaining permission to export the F-22 and preserving the production line for their assembly remains. In this case, Israel, Japan, South Korea, and also Saudi Arabia may become the customers of the F-22. Other countries are unlikely to be able to afford to buy fighters worth about $ 250 million apiece.
Therefore, the main competition after 2025 will unfold between the Russian PAK FA and the American F-35 Lightning-2.
A definite advantage of the F-35 is that it enters the world market before the Russian fighter. However, this advantage is leveled by the fact that many states with solid fleets of fighter aircraft will continue to actively purchase 4+ and 4 ++ generation fighters until 2025, and deliveries of F-35s in the period until 2025 will be limited to only those countries. who are participants in this program. At the same time, it is far from the fact that all of them will acquire the F-35 in the future, or will purchase them in the volumes that were originally announced. This is due to both the rise in the cost of this program and its significant lag behind the approved schedule.
The general contractor for the F-35 program is Lockheed Martin, which is implementing it jointly with Northrop Grumman and BAe Systems. US partners in the work on the F-35 at the stage of development and demonstration of this machine are 8 countries - Great Britain, the Netherlands, Italy, Turkey, Canada, Denmark, Norway and Australia. Singapore and Israel joined it as risk-free participants.
The obvious weakness of the F-35 program is that all other participants interested in purchasing these aircraft will be able to acquire them only through the mechanism for selling military equipment to foreign countries under the FMS (Foreign Military Sales) program, which does not provide for offset agreements or the involvement of foreign industry. which is extremely disadvantageous for those states that focus on the development of the national aviation industry.
The initial calculation was based on the fact that partner countries can purchase 722 F-35 fighters: Australia - up to 100, Canada - 60, Denmark - 48, Italy - 131, Netherlands - 85, Norway - 48, Turkey - 100 and Great Britain - 150 (90 for the Air Force and 60 for the Navy). The needs of the two non-risk sharing partners, Singapore and Israel, were identified at 100 and 75 units. respectively. That is, only 897 units, and taking into account the order of the Air Force, Navy and USMC - 3340 units.
Taking into account possible sales of the F-35 to other customers, by 2045-2050. the total number of aircraft produced was projected at 4500 units. However, already now, due to the rise in prices, significant adjustments have been made to the volume of purchases downward, primarily from the United States itself.
Among potential customers who are not members of the F-35 program, Spain should be noted, which has expressed its intention to purchase the F-35B. Taiwan has also shown interest in the prospect of purchasing F-35B fighters. The F-35 is considered a potential candidate for winning tenders for the Japanese Air Force (up to 100 units) and South Korea (60 units).
At the moment, this is the entire list of the "closest" potential customers of the F-35, although Lockheed Martin is negotiating with a number of other countries, including in the Asian and Middle East regions.
Taking into account the problems that may arise for a number of potential customers of F-35 fighters, Boeing has developed a prototype of the F-15SE Silent Eagle fighter, in the design of which the technologies of fifth-generation aircraft are used, including anti-radar coverage, conformal arrangement of systems weapons, digital avionics, as well as a V-shaped tail unit.
Boeing estimates a potential market for the F-15SE at 190 aircraft. The first aircraft can be delivered to a foreign customer in 2012.
The promising version is intended primarily for the international market. Boeing intends to offer the F-15SE to Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Israel and Saudi Arabia, which already operate a fleet of F-15s. Boeing also hopes that the air forces of those countries that planned to purchase the fifth generation F-35 Lightning-2 fighter, but cannot afford such a purchase due to the significant increase in its cost, will express their interest in purchasing the new F-15SE.
At the same time, the prospects for the F-15SE are limited in time. It can compete with other manufacturers only during the transition period, that is, until 2025, when most countries will fully meet their needs for fourth generation fighters.
For this transitional period, the Sukhoi company, according to the developed long-term strategy, relies heavily on the promotion of the Su-35 fighter.
The Su-35 is a deeply modernized super-maneuverable multi-role fighter of the 4 ++ generation. It uses fifth-generation technologies that provide superiority over foreign fighters of a similar class.
While maintaining the aerodynamic appearance typical of the Su-27/30 family aircraft, the Su-35 fighter is a qualitatively new aircraft. In particular, it has a reduced radar signature, a new avionics complex based on an information and control system, a new onboard radar with a phased antenna array with an increased number of simultaneously tracked and fired targets with a greater detection range.
The Su-35 is equipped with a 117C engine with a controlled thrust vector. This engine was created as a result of a deep modernization of the AL-31F and has a thrust of 14.5 tons, which is 2 tons higher than the performance of the base model. The 117C engine is a prototype of the fifth generation (1st stage) engine.
Sukhoi associates its immediate future in the world fighter market with the Su-35 aircraft. This aircraft should take a place between the Su-30MK multifunctional fighter and the promising 5th generation aviation complex.
Su-35 fighters will allow Sukhoi to remain competitive until the PAK FA enters the market. The main volume of export supplies of the Su-35 will fall on the period 2012-2022.
From the point of view of successful promotion to the market, it is also important that the Su-35 can be adapted to Western-made weapons.
Export deliveries of the Su-35 are planned to the countries of Southeast Asia, Africa, the Middle East and South America. Countries such as Libya, Venezuela, Brazil, Algeria, Syria, Egypt and possibly China are considered among the possible customers for the Su-35. The Russian Air Force, in turn, plans to form 2-3 regiments of Su-35 fighters. The total production program of the Su-35 is estimated at 200 vehicles, including about 140 units. - for export.
Simultaneously with the completion of the supply of the Su-35, the PAK FA will begin to enter the market (approximately from 2020).
The declared technical characteristics of the PAK FA correspond to the most advanced American F-22 fighter to date, whose task is to ensure air superiority.
The stealth of the PAK FA will be ensured by its design. In addition, the use of special coatings and materials that absorb and do not reflect radar signals will make the fighter virtually invisible to enemy radars.
The F-16C / E, F-15C / E and F / A-18A-F aircraft will not be able to adequately withstand the PAK FA. Concerning
F-35, it is already experiencing difficulties in countering the Su-35. With the further planned reduction of the RCS on the PAK FA, the F-35 fighter will experience even greater problems in aerial combat with the Russian fifth-generation aircraft.
According to forecasts, within the framework of the production program, designed for the period of the entire production cycle, that is, approximately until 2055, at least 1000 units will be manufactured. PAK FA. The expected order of the RF Air Force will be from 200 to 250 aircraft. With a favorable economic scenario for the development of the country, this figure may rise to 400-450 cars.
REFERENCE ASSESSMENT FOR PURCHASING PAK FA BY COUNTRY
Currently, the only foreign participant in the PAK FA program is India, which plans to have at least 250 fifth-generation fighters in its air force.
Based on the forecast of the renewal of the fleet of fourth generation fighters, the need for the procurement of new aviation equipment, taking into account the existing priorities in military-technical cooperation, as well as the prospects for the construction of the national air force, TsAMTO considers the following countries as potential buyers of the PAK FA: Algeria (purchase of 24-36 fifth generation fighters in the period 2025-2030), Argentina (12-24 units in 2035-2040), Brazil (24-36 units in 2030-2035), Venezuela (24-36 units in 2027-2032), Vietnam (12-24 units in 2030-2035), Egypt (12-24 units in 2040-2045), Indonesia (6-12 units in 2028-2032), Iran (36-48 units in 2035-2040), Kazakhstan (12-24 units in 2025-2035), China (about 100 units in 2025-2035), Libya (12-24 units in in 2025-2030), Malaysia (12-24 units in 2035-2040), Syria (12-24 units in 2025-2030).
Depending on the development of the international situation and the emergence of new hotbeds of tension in various regions of the world, delivery times, their volumes and geography may be adjusted. In general, the volume of potential export orders for the PAK FA, including India, may amount to 548-686 fighters.
The export geography of PAK FA can be much wider than shown in the table, in particular, at the expense of other CIS countries, in addition to Kazakhstan.
It should also be noted that in the first half of the 21st century, a number of states, faced with growing competition from the United States and wanting to maintain independence in their policies, will have to look for cooperation partners in the production of high-tech weapons systems. In this regard, TsAMTO experts do not exclude that in the future, a number of Western European countries and, first of all, France, and also, possibly, Germany, will show practical interest in partnership with Russia in the development of a fifth generation fighter. They will not be able to independently, from scratch, implement a similar program on the basis of their own efforts, and they will not want to buy the F-35, as other countries do at present, so as not to get into technological, and, as a result, into political dependence on the United States. …
The production program for the F-35 will be completed approximately by 2045-2050, the PAK FA - by 2055. From that moment until the end of the 21st century, the United States and Russia will focus on the phased modernization of the fifth generation fighters in service. At the same time, during this period, the transition to multifunctional aviation complexes of the sixth generation, which will already be unmanned, will begin.
A complete transition to unmanned combat systems is inevitable, but in reality it will begin no earlier than the 2050s. and will affect only the leading world powers. The gradual transition to unmanned aircraft in the second half of the 21st century will be due to both the technical improvement of combat aviation systems and purely physiological limitations in the pilots' ability to control fighters. The complete replacement of manned aircraft with unmanned combat systems in the leading countries of the world is expected around the end of the 21st century, that is, by the time the last manned fifth generation fighters are decommissioned.
