A little less than a year ago, Popular Mechanics wrote that China surpassed the United States in terms of the number of warships: according to experts, at that time the Celestial Empire had thirteen more warships than the US Navy. For many then this was a signal that the United States lost its status as the most powerful world power. However, is it really so?
Everything, of course, is more complicated and does not rest on the nominal number of surface ships and submarines. Especially when it comes to the US Navy, which are used to taking not so much quantity as quality. Let's "rewind" a little back. After World War II, it became clear to almost everyone that the basis of the tactical potential of a powerful modern fleet was aircraft-carrying ships, or rather, large aircraft carriers. The most striking modern example is again the American Navy, which has ten Nimitz-class aircraft carriers at its disposal, which will gradually be replaced by new ships of the Gerald R. Ford class, the first of which is already in service, although it faces different problems.
The basis of the strike potential of an aircraft carrier is fighter-bombers. Now it is (for the US Navy) F / A-18E / F Super Hornet, and in the future, the new fifth-generation fighter F-35C will become the basis. The States were "late" with the adoption of this ship for service: it began to serve only in 2019, although the other two versions were commissioned several years earlier. In total, about 90 aircraft and helicopters will be on board the Gerald Ford, including, of course, the aforementioned F-35s.
Industrial copy-paste
This example is needed in order to understand how difficult it will be for China to snatch real primacy at sea. As a reminder, now he has only two aircraft carriers in service: Liaoning and Shandong. The first is the well-known second Soviet heavy aircraft-carrying cruiser (TAVKR) of project 1143.5, first named "Riga", and then renamed "Varyag".
With the second, everything is more interesting. If only because it is already a "Chinese" development. Recall that Shandong (aka Project 001A) was commissioned in December 2019. Of course, the Chinese ship can be called conditionally. Anyone who has seen the Russian "Admiral Kuznetsov" in the photo will easily see the "kinship" between him and the "Shandong". The PRC, however, must be given its due: the strike armament in the face of the P-700 Granit missiles (or its conditional Chinese analogue) was removed by the Chinese, which was completely unnecessary for the aircraft carrier, leaving only defensive armament. A smart move. It is a pity that this cannot be said about everything else.
Recall that the basis of the strike potential of the Shandong and Liaoning is the Shenyang J-15 fighter. This is an aircraft built on the basis of the Soviet carrier-based Su-33, which in turn is the carrier-based version of the Su-27. Earlier, China bought from Ukraine the T-10K, one of the first prototypes of the Su-33, but the Chinese themselves do not like to call it a "copy" of the Soviet aircraft, they say that we are facing the development of the Chinese J-11B. Which, however, is a copy of the Su-27 itself.
Be that as it may, there is no doubt that China has updated the electronics and provided the machine with the ability to use modern aircraft weapons: at least by the standards of the post-Soviet space. We know from open sources that the aircraft can probably carry up to eight PL-12 medium-range air-to-air missiles with an active homing head. This in itself puts the J-15 on a level higher in combat capabilities than the Su-33, which does not carry missiles with ARGSN in its arsenal, having as the basis of weapons the outdated R-27 missiles with a passive radar homing head. It constrains the pilot in the post-launch maneuver, preventing him from implementing the “fire-and-forget” principle: at least when it comes to the final leg of the missile's flight. On the other hand, we know that at least part of the Su-33 has undergone an economical upgrade in recent years with a cockpit upgrade. This is already something.
It is known that the J-15 can also carry melee air-to-air missiles, but we are much more interested in strike capabilities: the very ones that the original Su-33 is practically devoid of. China is not a state that will talk about all the bombs or missiles it has. However, in November last year, the Jane's edition drew attention to a photo where you can see a pair of J-15 planes. On it you can see the KD-88 air-to-surface missile, as well as the YJ-91 anti-radar or YJ-91A anti-ship missile. All this suggests that China has dramatically increased the capabilities of the J-15, bringing it closer to what Russia, Europe and the United States call Generation Four Plus.
Again, it is impossible to speak confidently about the vehicle belonging to this or that (sub) generation, but in favor of the increased combat qualities in comparison with the Su-33, data from a number of media speaks, indicating that the aircraft will receive or has already received an on-board radar station with an active phased antenna array (AFAR). But the Russian Air Force, not to mention the Navy's aviation, still does not have at its disposal a single fighter that has a radar with AFAR. It was supposed to be the first serial fifth-generation Su-57, but it crashed during tests.
Problems have not disappeared anywhere
Does this indicate the superiority of the Chinese military aviation over the Russian? Not at all. In general, any data on Chinese military equipment can be both exaggerated and underestimated at times: such are the realities of a totalitarian state. Obviously, even through the prism of propaganda, things are not very pleasant for the Chinese side. The traditional Chinese problem is engines. According to Western experts, the WS-10 engines created for the J-15 are notable for their low reliability, and besides, they are not powerful enough for such a heavy machine. The Americans counted at least four J-15 crashes with a total number of fighters of this model produced at about 20-25 units.
One of the problems is the saturation of the air with salt, which is fraught with problems for the airframe and aircraft engine. We also note that earlier The Asia Times wrote that the Chinese media often criticized the plane and called it a "jumping fish" for its inability to work effectively from the deck of aircraft-carrying ships.
You can talk indefinitely about all sorts of technical difficulties, "childhood illnesses" (the plane was commissioned relatively recently), but this is not the main problem. The main thing is that the J-15 is too large for ships such as the Liaoning and Shandong, and is overweight. Normal takeoff weight of the vehicle is 27 tons. For comparison: the American F / A-18E has 21 tons.
However, even this drawback (or rather, a "feature") could be closed eyes, if not for another conceptual problem - the lack of stealth technology. Nowadays, when all new fighters use it to one degree or another, the J-15 becomes the machine of the last century. Earlier, as an alternative for it, the media called the promising Chinese J-31 of the fifth generation, but this aircraft is still at the development stage and there is no information that it will be part of the Shandong or Liaoning aircraft groups. Or even go into the series someday.
Thus, in the context of the geopolitical confrontation with the United States, the capabilities of the PRC's carrier-based aircraft look completely unsatisfactory, even despite some improvements in the J-15 in comparison with the Su-33.
