At the end of December 2001, by decision of the UN Security Council, the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) was organized. The purpose of this military formation was to help the new Afghan government maintain order after the overthrow of the Taliban. Initially, the ISAF was responsible for order only in Kabul, but gradually the area of responsibility was expanded to the entire country. Almost eleven years have passed since the organization of the International Force. Peace in Afghanistan has not yet come, but every year the opinions about the need for an early withdrawal of international troops are heard louder and louder.
The situation in Afghanistan transparently hints that a new civil war will begin in the country immediately after the withdrawal of NATO troops. According to former British Foreign Secretary J. Miliband, when ISAF leaves Afghanistan, the Taliban may come to power within a few days, or even hours. In 2014, it is planned to completely withdraw troops from Afghanistan, which could bring closer the unpleasant outcome predicted by the ex-British Foreign Minister. Because of this, the United States initiated negotiations with the current official Kabul on the subject of a new mutual assistance treaty. The main purpose of this agreement will be to ensure the safe withdrawal of NATO troops, as well as to maintain order and the current government in Afghanistan. This is the only way to minimize possible problems that will undoubtedly accompany the planned departure of ISAF.
It is worth noting that the United States has already left a small "loophole" for itself to ensure the security of its troops, as well as to maintain influence over the current Afghan leadership. Back in the spring of this year, B. Obama and H. Karzai signed a long-term strategic partnership agreement. Among other things, this document stipulates the rights of the United States to a new agreement, allowing to maintain a small contingent of its troops after 2014. These officers and soldiers will serve as military advisers and also be responsible for training the Afghan military. According to US Secretary of Defense L. Panetta, research is currently underway on the required number of military advisers. The actual signing of an additional agreement on advisors may take place in the next few months.
Despite the seemingly "colonial" nature of such an agreement, Kabul is likely to gladly sign it. At present, the total number of the armed forces of Afghanistan slightly exceeds 200 thousand people. By 2014 it is planned to bring it up to the level of 320-350 thousand people. This is an order of magnitude more than the approximate number of the Taliban: according to various estimates, there are currently about 28-30 thousand militants on the territory of Afghanistan. Thus, there is every reason to believe that terrorist organizations will continue to use guerrilla tactics, which will require special training from the armed forces. At present, it is the foreign military specialists who are engaged in the training of most of the new military personnel. At the same time, Afghan soldiers' training system is being created.
Recently, terrorist organizations have begun to use a new way of fighting government forces and the ISAF. Now they are not only laying mines and attacking checkpoints, but also trying to infiltrate their people into the Afghan army. After being enrolled in the ranks of the armed forces, a terrorist can work as a scout, or maybe commit sabotage, depending on the order of his commanders. As a result, NATO recruiting personnel have to tighten the selection rules and take a more responsible approach to the consideration of candidates. According to some sources, the effects of the new selection rules have begun to be felt in the past few months. One of the indirect confirmation of this can be considered the growth of attacks on NATO members, which have one characteristic feature. For example, more and more American, British and other bases are being attacked by militants dressed in the uniform of the armed forces of Afghanistan. It is not difficult to guess for what purpose the attacks are carried out in this way.
As you can see, the withdrawal of ISAF troops from Afghanistan will not be easy, and its consequences can be anything and they are unlikely to be good. Not so long ago, a report from the International Crisis Group (ICG) added fuel to the discussion. According to her analysts, the withdrawal of NATO troops will indeed entail the return of the Taliban as the most powerful organization in the country. Moreover, the reason for this is the population's distrust of the existing government. A new presidential election is also due in 2014, and ICG staff have doubts that Karzai will be able to keep his post. In addition to the report of the International Crisis Group, the recent interview of the Afghan parliamentarian S. I. Gilani. He believes that the International Security Assistance Force is to blame for the current problems in Afghanistan, which at one time could not overcome banditry. If Karzai intends to extend the state of emergency and thereby increase his actual term of office, then the aggravation of the situation may begin not only by the Taliban, but also due to the discontent of other political forces. And in this case, according to Gilani, no force can prevent a new turmoil.
Having found themselves in an unpleasant situation with the withdrawal of troops, the NATO command is trying to keep a good face. For example, recently, instead of the term "withdrawal of troops", which was previously associated exclusively with a hasty withdrawal, the phrase "redeployment" has been used. At the same time, simultaneously with the new wording, a new information image of the withdrawal of troops is being introduced. The word "redeployment", first of all, means a measured and well-planned movement of troops to their home bases. It is unlikely that something can change from the name change, but a thoughtful and clear plan for the withdrawal of troops will really be useful. Now no one can rule out the possibility of attacks on the ISAF bases weakened by the withdrawal, and the assistance of the local armed forces may be insufficient.
An accurate calculation of the redeployment of troops in the context of Afghan realities has a special priority: it is necessary to withdraw the bases and at the same time prevent losses during the withdrawal. Of course, local armed forces can provide some assistance in covering troops and protecting bases, but they do not inspire much confidence. So the planned institution of military advisers will most likely be made on the basis of the part of the current ISAF contingent that will not be withdrawn from Afghanistan. The possible consequences of the withdrawal of troops in the form of the activation of the Taliban and other terrorist organizations suggest that the main task of the remaining American troops will be to defend their own bases. As for the training of Afghan soldiers, in the event of a new stage of the civil war, it is likely that these activities will have to be dealt with by the armed forces of Afghanistan themselves. Unless, of course, NATO obtains permission to conduct another peacekeeping operation, as it was eleven years ago.
