Russia continues to develop the promising 3M22 Zircon anti-ship missile. This hypersonic weapon with the highest characteristics will become a unique and extremely dangerous means of fighting the surface fleet of a potential enemy. Accordingly, a potential adversary already now - without waiting for the appearance of serial missiles - needs to work out the issue of countering such a threat. How can you protect your ships from a Russian missile?
Missile threat
Unfortunately, very little is known about Zircon. The main capabilities of this complex have been announced, but most of the characteristics have not yet been announced. There are various estimates, but they may not correspond to the real state of affairs.
It is known that the 3M22 product will be a missile capable of being used on surface and underwater platforms; the appearance of an aviation modification is possible. Earlier it was mentioned the creation of only anti-ship weapons, but recently it became known that the "Zircon" will also be able to hit ground targets.
According to press reports, the flight speed of the Zircon rocket can reach M = 8. The range, according to various estimates, is up to 400 or 600 km. The dimensions of the product are limited by the dimensions of the cell of the 3S14 universal launcher. The technical details of the project, such as the type of engine, type of GOS, etc., remain unknown.
It is expected that due to its hypersonic speed and special flight profile, the Zircon anti-ship missile system will pose a particular danger to the ships of a potential enemy. So, the final section of the trajectory will be overcome in a minimum time, which will reduce the chances of successful interception by existing or prospective air defense systems. The enemy literally will not have time to carry out all the necessary procedures. The target will be defeated both by the missile warhead and by its kinetic energy.
The carriers of the 3M22 product, thanks to the 3S14 installation, can be domestic surface ships of several projects. There are more than 20 such combat units in service and a comparable number of ships are at different stages of construction. Also, submarines of the "Ash" type will receive new weapons - one is already in service, several others are not yet ready for delivery. It is not known whether the Zircon will be deployed on other submarines, unified in armament.
Air defense problems
The key factor influencing the high efficiency of the Zircon is its hypersonic flight speed. In addition, on the approach to the target, the missile descends and flies literally over the waves, performing evasive maneuvers, which makes it difficult to detect and track. As a result, the detection and defeat of an attacking hypersonic anti-ship missile system turns into an extremely difficult task.
The first issue in the context of air defense is the timely detection of a flying missile. At an anti-ship missile speed of the order of M = 8, the passage of the zone of responsibility of a typical shipborne radar will take only a few minutes - this may be insufficient to repel a missile strike, especially a massive one. In this case, it makes sense to use additional radar equipment.
In this context, one should recall the composition of the carrier-based aviation grouping of the US Navy aircraft carrier groups. They must include E-2D Hawkeye long-range radar patrol aircraft. Such a technique, being on duty at a distance from the AUG, is capable of carrying out the threat detection lines over long distances and significantly increasing the time for the reaction of the ship's air defense. Fortunately for naval forces, hypersonic missiles are not stealthy and not particularly difficult to detect.
The defeat of a hypersonic low-altitude anti-ship missile system by modern anti-aircraft systems is still a serious problem without an obvious solution. Short-range means, incl. artillery has to be immediately ruled out as knowingly ineffective. Even if the target missile is successfully hit at distances of less than several kilometers, its debris will cause significant damage to the ship.
Thus, to combat the "Zircon", you need medium or long-range missiles with a high flight speed and the ability to intercept high-speed targets. To obtain the possibility of a second attack in case of failure of the first, it is advisable to move the interception line as far as possible, which places increased demands on the missile defense system.
An example of a weapon that has some potential against hypersonic anti-ship missiles is the American RIM-174 Standard ERAM / SM-6 missile defense system. It develops a speed of M = 3, 5 and has a range of 240 km. Thus, the flight to the maximum range takes no more than 4-6 minutes. A multi-mode radar seeker is used. Using third-party target designation, the ship can launch the SM-6 missile "over the horizon" and get some chances of intercepting a flying anti-ship missile system of the 3M22 type - perhaps not on the first try.
However, such protection against anti-ship missiles has significant drawbacks. First of all, it is the price. One SM-6 product costs US taxpayers $ 4.9 million. Since 2009, less than 300 serial missiles have been produced, and the total production, including future years, will be limited to 1,800 units. Due to the high cost and complexity of the SM-6, they are still used to a limited extent and constitute a small fraction of the ships' ammunition load.
Fighting carriers
Intercepting the flying Zircon is proving to be an extremely difficult task, if at all, at the current level of technology. In this case, the first strike with the defeat of the carriers of such weapons should be considered a more convenient and realistic way of dealing with the enemy anti-ship missiles. Timely detection of enemy ships or submarines with especially dangerous weapons will, by definition, exclude their effective use.
The already mentioned US Navy has a sufficiently developed complex of means for the search and detection of enemy ships and submarines. In fact, the entire structure of the AUG and other ship formations, patrol aircraft, submarine forces, etc. defined to solve similar problems.
The main means of fighting surface targets are still the Harpoon missiles used by ships, submarines and aircraft. They are being replaced by the modern anti-ship missile system AGM-158C LRASM, but its real combat capabilities are not yet too great. In the Navy, it can only be carried by F / A-18E / F fighters, and the initial operational readiness of such a complex was obtained only a few weeks ago. The ship version of the rocket is not yet ready for service.
To combat submarine missile cruisers, the United States has a developed fleet of multipurpose nuclear submarines, and the construction of such equipment continues. Not so long ago, another contract appeared for 10 ships of the Virginia class. The ammunition load of such submarines includes torpedoes and missiles of several types.
Thus, the US Navy has the ability to detect and attack Russian carriers of promising hypersonic weapons. However, the success of such an attack is not guaranteed. Not all American-made anti-ship and anti-submarine weapons are novel and highly effective, and the Russian Navy has the means to defend against such attacks.
Success is not guaranteed
A very curious situation is developing around the Zircon project. The exact characteristics of the future weapons have not yet been announced, but approximate capabilities and strengths are known. And already on the basis of this, assessments and conclusions are made, incl. far reaching.
Apparently, the 3M22 will indeed be a unique weapon for our time with the highest combat effectiveness. In a hypothetical conflict, ships, submarines or aircraft with Zircons will become an extremely dangerous force capable of inflicting the most serious damage on the enemy with minimal risks to themselves.
At the same time, one hundred percent performance will not last forever. The appearance of hypersonic anti-ship missiles in the Russian Navy will force other countries to intensify the development of promising means of protection. In addition, one should expect increased attention to systems for combating carriers of such missiles.
With the help of existing or future weapons, a potential adversary can get some chances to repel the Zircon attack. However, such a defense will be difficult from the point of view of organization and expensive due to the consumption of the most advanced ammunition. In addition, its successful outcome is not guaranteed - and failure threatens with the loss of combat units and extremely unpleasant consequences for the fleet.
Apparently, for a long time, the Zircon hypersonic anti-ship missiles will indeed be a unique and highly effective weapon capable of fighting enemy ships and guaranteed to hit them. Until adequate means of defense are available, such a missile will remain the most important military and political tool. In fact, it can be viewed as another means of strategic non-nuclear deterrence. How long "Zircon" will be able to maintain this status - time will tell.
