Ernest Hemingway
Weapons of mass destruction
Drone swarm (and countermeasures) expert Zach Cullenborn believes the US should formally take a position that large swarms of autonomous, lethal drones should be treated as weapons of mass destruction (WMD):
"A swarm with 10,000 or more armed drones should be classified as a weapon of mass destruction."
It is appropriate to recall here that nuclear weapons are also among the types of WMD. And the question of its use in response (or to the threat of the use of weapons of mass destruction by the "other side") is not just "discussed" in the United States, but is implemented at the level of operational planning.
According to Isaac Kaminer, professor of engineering at the US Navy Graduate School:
"Attacks from large-scale hostile swarms with hundreds or thousands of drones are already an imminent threat."
In 2016, Isaac Kaminer worked on the development of tactics for protecting a "valuable naval asset" (aircraft carrier) from a swarm of small unmanned boats. This is a real threat. Iran has long been working on the tactics of groups of small speed boats against large warships (here is the urgent use of such boats by the Houthis). At the same time, high-speed boats (including unmanned boats) can be supplemented with groups (swarms) of air and underwater drones.
Self-managed threat
Usually modern drones are remotely controlled by people (and even in automatic mode, their work is usually controlled by the operator). However, this becomes impossible with a large number of drones, both due to the lack of operators and due to the limited bandwidth of communication channels. Instead, the "swarm" will have to control and manage itself in many ways.
It is obvious that the development of effective algorithms and tactics for group use (solving real problems) is a very nontrivial task. And they are very actively working on this abroad.
2017 year. The United States Naval Academy wins a three-day tournament over the skies over Camp Roberts over the United States Military Academy and the United States Air Force Academy in a DARPA experiment aimed at developing innovative tactics for large groups of unmanned aerial vehicles as part of the Academies Swarm Challenge.
The tournament was preceded by 8 months of intensive preparation work. In this short period of time, DARPA has developed, manufactured and tested its own communication networks and various real-time data visualization systems designed to simultaneously track dozens of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).
Highly autonomous battles
Timothy Chang, DARPA UAV Swarm Program Manager, said:
“The cadets developed innovative swarm tactics for these highly autonomous battles and demonstrated them in experiments. It was a phenomenal success. One of the most exciting results of this was "the opening of the eyes and the imagination" - not only of the cadets of the academies, not only of the DARPA researchers, but also of the high-ranking military commanders and UAV operators who were present."
Before the competition, no team flew more than four UAVs at the same time. On the first day, the rival teams increased this number to 20 UAVs. Two days later, 60 UAVs participated (25 to 25 - teams competing, and five additional UAVs for each team circled in reserve).
In the first game (April 23), the Air Force defeated the army 58–30 in a 20v20 UAV battle. Moreover, at first, the army seized the initiative and took the lead, but the Air Force's ability to quickly assemble a larger swarm of UAVs and manage it effectively turned out to be a decisive factor in the final victory of the Air Force team.
Monday, April 24: The Navy defeated the Army.
Tuesday 25 April The United States Navy defeated the Air Force 86-81 in a tough match in which the championship was changed four times before the allotted time ran out. Wherein the large number of UAVs in the air pushed the experimental network infrastructure to the limit and made it difficult for both groups to send commands and update swarm tactics.
The victory of the Navy team was not accidental. Since it was the US Navy that was on the "spearhead" of studying the issues of the combat use of "swarms" (and countering them). And it started back in the Cold War (more on that below).
On April 16, 2015, the US Navy's Office of Naval Research announced that over the past month it has conducted demonstrations of swarming unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) as part of the Low-Cost UAV Swarming Technology (LOCUST) program, which develops a technology for rapid launch of unmanned aerial vehicles for suppression and destruction of opponents.
The tests were carried out with the Coyote UAVs, which have the ability to carry different payloads depending on the tasks being performed. And among them was a group flight, in which nine UAVs were successfully synchronized and performed the flight (and missions) in a group completely autonomously. Swarming technology allows drones to communicate and spatially control each other, controlling their swarms with minimal human guidance. This reduces the load on both communication channels and the operator. And is key to practical and effective group drone tactics.
In the final series of experiments at the Yuma test site, Arizona, 31 Coyote UAVs were launched in a salvo (in 40 seconds) with a group execution of the tasks being solved.
Head of the Naval Research Directorate Program Mastroianni said:
"There has never been such a level of autonomous swarm flight."
Swarm vs swarm
That is, in 2015, the US Navy reached the level of a "swarm" of about 30 UAVs.
Here it will be very appropriate to recall our operational anti-ship missile system (ASM) with a "swarm" of 24 autonomous (from the launch vehicle after launch), but interacting with each other, UAV-ASM, collectively solving the most difficult task of defeating enemy ship formations (incl. including aircraft carrier groups). This is in the scientific organizations of the Navy and the defense industry began to develop in the late 60s. centuries have passed. And they successfully completed this development in the early 80s. That is, once it was we who were in the leading positions in these issues, far ahead of the rest of the world.
Accordingly, for the US Navy since the 70s. extremely acute was the problem of fighting the "swarms" of our anti-ship missiles ON. And they actively studied this. And now they are far ahead of us.
December 2015. The US Navy is purchasing 100 unmanned aerial vehicles for swarm versus swarm exercises. DARPA is also connected here with the conduct of research trials in 2017 - competitions of academy teams.
Gremlins
November 2019. The first flight tests of the X-61A multipurpose drones were carried out under the Gremlins program for the massive use of UAVs dropped from transport aircraft against air defense systems (and other enemy targets). UAV X-61A can reach a maximum speed of up to 0.8M. The flight duration is 3 hours, and the range is up to 900 km.
October 2016, at a training ground in California, three F / A-18E / F Super Hornets of the US Air Force in a short period of time released 103 Perdix micro-UAVs. The idea for the project came from students at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 2011. At first everything was “peaceful and humane”. The students launched atmospheric exploration drones from balloons. And then the military "came" from the Air Force and they liked it.
China and Iran
Americans are not alone in this. Their main geopolitical adversary, China, is breathing in their backs. Moreover, even Iran has already conducted research exercises with the simultaneous use of dozens of different types of drones.
Project "Flock-93"
Alas, the fact that this real (in the sense of real practical work, and not “naked theorizing”) part was shown in our country, evokes emotions of the “Argentina-Jamaica” level. Just to quote this:
2019-26-06, the Ministry of Defense showed a flock of drones, which impossible to knock down … The new development is capable of "Drive crazy" any air defense. Experts of the military innovative technopolis "Era" have developed an unmanned combat complex "Staya-93", which allows the use of drone fleets in the same ranks. The prototypes and tactics of use were presented by the military developers at the military-technical forum in the Patriot park near Moscow. The Flock-93 project provides for the simultaneous use of an unlimited number of small drones in a strict or scattered formation. The complex is designed to perform a wide variety of tasks: both military and civilian. In the future, the "Staya" complex can be used for the delivery of goods in hard-to-reach areas, for monitoring the border zone and protecting industrial facilities. Small-sized drones are capable of landing on a site without infrastructure and delivering cargo anywhere.
This complex is distinguished by complete automatism. If the Chinese and American counterparts are operated by the operator, then the drones included in the "Flock" squadron are programmed in advance and operate autonomously. According to experts from the Ministry of Defense, this tactic of use excludes the possibility of destroying drones using electronic warfare equipment: “There is no signal. This means that there is simply nothing to drown out,”experts say.
The tactics of using the "Flock" complex in combat conditions provides for the interchangeability of drones: the place of the retired in the ranks is immediately taken by another. In the event of an attack using air defense systems, the drones scatter and continue to operate in a new formation.
Comment on "this creative" - thank you (the most "juicy" - highlighted). I will only note that the aforementioned "flock" exists only in the form of a "cartoon" presentation. And the proposed salaries to the "creative developers" of the "innovation center" of the RF Ministry of Defense "Era" are less than 50 thousand rubles. In addition, there are good reasons to doubt that at least one (of any subject) development (ie design and development work) was actually carried out in the “innovation center” of the RF Ministry of Defense “Era”. Apparently, "a teleport is invented" (for instant teleportation of a UAV in order to immediately replace one drone with another).
Just a disaster
The conclusions for us here will be extremely harsh. If in the technical part our lag is small (with a relative well-being with communications, aerodynamics, electric motors, we have serious problems with stabilized optics, thermal imagers, piston engines and batteries), then in organizational terms it is catastrophic.
Yes, in recent years, “our DARPA” (FPI) has “roused itself” and launched real and necessary work in this direction. But at the national level, we just have a disaster:
1. Long-term and hardened decision-making system for new developments. (Even with a positive decision on a new topic, inclusion in the plan of promising works "in two years").
2. An extended and ineffective system for the development and approval of tactical and technical assignments (TTZ) for new work. At the same time, the presence of the "highest approving signature" on them in no way guarantees the quality of such a TTZ. Quite the opposite. Today, high-quality TTZ has become a rarity. (And it is performed as a rule by the performers themselves, and not "those who are supposed to").
3. Contractual system, excluding real comparative tests.
4. Often open "development" of the received state funds. Instead of betting on the result. (The topic of certain works of the Ministry of Industry and Trade on robotics may cause not even bewilderment, but "violent emotions").
5. Often deliberately redundant and unreasonable requirements, resulting in military products (MPP). Moreover (and also to the PMN) for the so-called "right organizations" and "respected people" can say goodbye to everyone and everything.
6. Often inadequate certification requirements. Starting from obtaining licenses for development and ending with an actually impracticable (in full) regulatory framework for their implementation.
7. An expensive method of price formation, which practically excludes the Ministry of Defense receiving products at a low cost.
90 kg per chip
“Anecdotal story. One of the enterprises produced a kind of armored cover at an exorbitant cost. It turned out that a product weighing 10 kg was milled from a workpiece weighing 100 kg. And 90 kg of steel went into shavings. But the most modern CNC machines were involved. Previously, such covers were stamped from a sheet of armor, like dumplings. Now they use super machines and super technologies. Thus, it is absolutely legal to "stretch" any price."
And do not rush to condemn the director of this enterprise for this. For he needs to somehow pay workers, repair equipment, a roof. In the end, to have a "stash" for the future, and just give loans (for new machines).
All of this is by no means a "secret." Several years ago, at the last public conference on robotics of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, representatives of development organizations (including high-ranking ones) simply “bubbled” everything inside. And very harsh words were openly sounded not even on the sidelines or during discussions, but directly from the stands. There were also voiced assurances of understanding of the problems from senior leaders. Only now something has changed only for the worse.
Sabotage as a concern
Another reason arose, which, alas, cannot be said directly in the media in public. Almost all domestic developers literally "howled" from it. (But openly - only in the "smoking rooms". God forbid, to say this out loud - "ruin the relationship with the customer") And not only robotics, but also many "flying", "driving" and "floating".
Due to the dramatically increased not only the cost of development (excluding the possibility of development and production for the Ministry of Defense, for example, massive cheap UAVs and the formation of large "networks" and "swarms"), but also time (this makes it extremely difficult to conduct tests).
The reason behind which the commercial interests of certain organizations are clearly visible (of course, all this is done under the "sauce" of "concern for the Motherland", "the enemies surround", "we still need to strain and increase vigilance", etc.).
At the same time, our UAVs fought back (in the face of tough opposition) without such "additional care" successfully both in Syria and in a number of other countries. Now they are actually “outlawed”.
The “price tag” indicated in the west for mass UAVs (of the order of 10–20 thousand dollars or less) is close to that for our ATGMs (for which the requirements are worked out and are reasonable).
The problem is that we have “some special requirements” for UAVs, with which one can simply forget about such low prices. So, our "battle swarms" will not be?
Our "battle swarms" will not be
Let me emphasize, not for technical reasons, but purely for organizational reasons.
In any case, until all the existing organizational chaos in our country is rigidly and objectively exposed and resolved (with the formation of a normal sound development system and requirements for them). But for this to happen, it is necessary to "sound the alarm" to all those involved: managers, designers, engineers. Up to the mass appeal to the "relevant authorities".
For this "additional concern" is no longer even sabotage, but a real sabotage against promising domestic robotic systems (and many other types of weapons and military equipment).
However, there are those who believe that “everything is fine and wonderful” and “nothing needs to be changed”. Moreover, it is actively imposed through the media.
Lubok picture
Here is the following quote from a well-known Russian "expert" (in quotation marks):
“The unmanned attack aircraft TAI Aksungur, presented by some media as the“killer”of our T-72 and T-90, can take on board long-range cruise missile Roketsan SOM. The weight of its warhead is 230 kg. This more than serious warhead is capable of penetrating a tank's armor with a high probability.
But to destroy their company, as the media enthusiastically write, is unlikely. The reason for this is very commonplace. Analysis of videos regularly posted on the Internet by the Turkish Ministry of Defense from various conflict zones shows that drones are fighting against single, often unprotected targets. The Osa air defense systems also do not work. There is no need to talk about tanks and other armored vehicles: they either stand or go somewhere slowly.
Electronic warfare is what globally will make it impossible for the massive use of shock drones. But what about the tanks? In general, everything will be the same with them. "Old" T-72, brought to the level of T-72B3 in the course of modernization, have "all-rakur protection" against means of destruction … There is no need to talk about the T-90 and its most modern modification, the T-90MS, the newest T-14 Armata. For them, this is an axiom, supported by the possibility of using smoke-metal charges, covering the battlefield for kilometers with a curtain impenetrable for optical means, under which it is almost impossible to find vehicles.
Here "everything is fine": both a 230 kg warhead on the tank, and blind faith in the absolute effectiveness of electronic warfare against enemy UAVs (and our UAVs for some reason "heroically hold" the enemy's electronic warfare), and "all-aspect" and "impenetrable" defense of Russian tanks, and "kilometers of impenetrable interference" from smoke grenade launchers. And all this "popular nonsense" was not published "somewhere in the yellow press", and in TASS.
Songs about Karabakh
Another “expert on the popular print shop” about Karabakh:
The share of the UAV-kamikaze accounts for only a few targets hit. An analysis of the losses of the Armenian Armed Forces shows that the UAVs did not cope with their task. Armenian S-300s continue to function. However, like the Smerchi, Elbrus and Tochki, which continue to strike at the territory of Azerbaijan.
The work of the lighter SkyStriker and Orbiter did not appear on the official Azerbaijani video at all. However, such a result is quite expected. Drones with small warheads of 3-5 kg cannot inflict significant damage even on lightly armored combat vehicles. Not to mention tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers.
Judging by the available information, the main striking force of Azerbaijan was a bunch of Bayktar drones with guided missile systems, as well as artillery. On the official videos of the Azerbaijani military department you can well see how missiles fly up to targets, and sometimes - artillery shells … It seems that Baku is actively using adjustable artillery ammunition. This version is supported by videos with particularly accurate hits of single artillery shells in field fortifications, as well as in armored vehicles. The effectiveness of such strikes is very high.
Earlier, Azerbaijan purchased modern self-propelled gun mounts 2S19M1 "MSTA" from Russia. That's why It is not excluded that recently Baku purchased additional Krasnopol corrected ammunition for them. Moreover, the export version of this projectile is one of the most modern in the world and has unique characteristics. To destroy mobile objects - tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, armored personnel carriers, self-propelled gun mounts, MLRS and air defense systems - the Azerbaijani military uses Spike guided missiles of the ER and NLOS models.
Until now, there is no reliable confirmation of the use of small-sized guided munitions from the Bayktar. It should be noted that the Azerbaijani Bayktar have Turkish guided ammunition on board. In particular, in the photo of the drone shot down by the Armenian air defense on October 20, you can see two MAM-L. Most likely, the Armed Forces of Azerbaijan are well aware of the low power of Turkish corrected ammunition, therefore, they are used extremely limitedly. Bombs are hung under the drones, most likely just in case.
At first glance, Azerbaijani drones demonstrate unique combat capabilities. Already we can safely talk about a new unmanned revolution in military affairs. But this is only at first glance.
The stories about the unique capabilities of kamikaze drones turned out to be too optimistic. So far, these products account for an insignificant percentage of the destroyed Armenian equipment and personnel. So it's too early to trumpet about unmanned swarms sweeping away everything in their path.
So far, the most effective Azerbaijani military tool is the Bayktar UAV, which directs artillery and guided missiles at targets. As in the case of Idlib, Turkish drones hang over the front line and tactical rear, knocking out targets, thwarting Armenian attacks and isolating defense areas. But in reality, the possibilities of such a scheme are limited. They are determined by the firing range of Spike missiles and artillery systems - and this is only a few tens of kilometers.
Therefore, the Azerbaijani military cannot fight at the operational level with the transfer of Armenian reserves. This requires the use of already full-fledged aviation and delivering massive strikes against the advancing columns. But Baku cannot use aviation - the Armenian S-300s have not yet been suppressed. That's why the Azerbaijani offensive is, in general, difficult. Every time the Armenian command manages to accumulate the forces necessary for a counterattack in the breakthrough sector. Although such strikes could not turn the tide, they strongly slow down the Azerbaijani offensive.
In short, if anyone did not know, then, according to our "cheap fighters of the information front", Armenian S-300 and Azerbaijani Krasnopolis won in Karabakh …
The article itself was published in the "Independent Military Review", and its author - Ramm from Izvestia. The only trouble is that such popular descriptions influence the opinion of the political leadership …
And the reality is different. Here is a quote from the military journalist V. Shurygin:
“I watched videos of unmanned aerial vehicles from Karabakh on the Turkish Haber Global channel for almost an hour. It's just trash! An ordinary carnage. Not dozens - hundreds of attacks! Moreover, there are no longer any significant objects - command posts, warehouses, artillery positions and tanks with trucks. Now the hunt goes for groups of three to five soldiers. Complete air supremacy. There are hundreds of deaths just for this one hour viewing! In fact, this is a real air terror …
And tomorrow
This is how things are going with us now.
And tomorrow they will attack us. But we will have nothing to answer.
