From the very beginning of the Crimean events, unspoken sanctions against Russia have also affected the space industry. For example, the already paid American, and later European, components for Russian spacecraft were not delivered. In the future, however, everything can take an even more serious turn. The largest joint project, where the paths of the Russian Federation and the United States are likely to diverge soon, will be the International Space Station. This is driven by both political considerations and deeper reasons. For all the years of the ISS's existence, Russia has hardly benefited from its participation in the project, with the exception of the utilization of industrial capacities during the creation of numerous modifications of the Soyuz and Progress.
The point is not only in the general deplorable state of Russian science, but also in the fact that, in form, the station, international in fact, is a purely American property. This does not only apply to parts made directly in the USA. Thus, the Zarya module produced in Russia is the property of the United States. The same applies to the Italian-built modules "Harmony" and "Tranquility", Canadian manipulators and much more. But that's not all. So, in the formally Japanese scientific module "Kibo", the American NASA owns 46.7%, in the European "Columbus" the situation is the same.
In conditions when many key segments are controlled in one way or another by the Americans, it is impossible for Russians to conduct any fundamental or applied (not to mention the military sphere) experiments without the knowledge of their sworn "partners". Experts warned about this back in the days when the ISS existed only in the form of sketches. But then it was extremely important for the Americans not only to involve the Russian Federation in the ISS project, but also to force it to liquidate its own Mir station, where the Russian Federation had complete freedom for any activity. For this, even Hollywood was launched: we recall the famous phrase of an astronaut from the movie "Armageddon" about "Peace", they say, we don't even have so many cars - despite the fact that "Mir" at that time was a little over 10 years old, and the age of the ISS is already approaching twenty. In 2001, the station was flooded in the Pacific Ocean, and Russia threw all its forces into maintaining the ISS.
The Americans, in fact, created an ideal scam with the ISS, forcing many countries to financially and technically participate in the creation of a complex that only they will control. For this reason, China refused to participate in the project.
ISS, preferring to build its own station "Tiangong-1", Russia, in turn, is going to launch the next module to the International Space Station in the 4th quarter of 2016.
Until now, most of the cargo to the International Space Station was delivered at a time either by Shuttles, which have already gone to museums, or by European ATV trucks. The latter carried up to 7,500 kg of cargo to orbit, but for 2016 this project has already been closed - the Europeans now have no time for space.
Today, cargoes to the International Space Station are delivered by Russian Progress (payload up to 2500 kg), American private truck Cygnus (load up to 3500 kg), Dragon SpaceX (load 3310 kg) and Japanese HTV (load up to 6000 kg). As you can see, "Progress" in this family is an honorary long-liver, but a serious change is already on its heels and without political turbulence. If the Russian apparatus suddenly falls out of the general configuration, the industrial capacities of the Americans and Japanese will make it possible to make up for the gap.
With the delivery of astronauts, everything is more complicated. Today there is no alternative to the Russian Soyuz, but competitors are also moving forward. SpaceX has developed the Dragon V2 manned spacecraft, which will make its maiden flight in December 2016. In addition, NASA's Orion manned spacecraft and Boeing's CST-100 Starliner will be tested in 2017-2018. As a result, by 2020, the United States may have three operational versions of a manned spacecraft at once. And if the Dream Chaser project is also implemented, then there will be as many as four such ships. After that, the United States will finally cease to need "Soyuz" and any cooperation with Russia in general.
As a result, 2019-2020 is about the time when the Americans can stop letting us into the ISS. If to someone the very formulation of the question seems fantastic, then I would like to remind that the current international situation some three years ago would have seemed to most of us an absolutely impossible scenario.
Are we ready for such a radical development of events? More likely no than yes. As an alternative to the International Space Station, the smaller, but completely sovereign orbital station "Rus" has long been called. There is also a promising project of the manned spacecraft "Federation", which is planned to be launched by the end of the decade. True, the timing in the domestic space industry is a separate and unpleasant topic. For example, they promised to bring the Angara carrier rocket in 1995 to 2000, but as a result, the first launch took place only at the end of 2014. Approximately the same story in duration, but also with an unsightly ending, happened to the automatic station "Phobos-Grunt". Own space station is much more difficult to execute than any of these separately taken programs.
Whether Russia will be able to implement such an ambitious project amid the economic downturn is a big question. It is clear that this will require different people in leadership positions, a different attitude, a different spirit and strategy. The strategy is not separate for space, but for the country as a whole, where space is only part of a large national idea.
