Although the scenario of the 4th Russian-Japanese war (1904-1905, 1938-1939, 1945) is unlikely, it is still necessary to know the capabilities of a potential enemy.
The current hysterics of Tokyo are a sign of the decline of the Land of the Rising Sun. Japanese civilization is seriously ill, its Spirit is amazed, which is clearly manifested in the psychological state of the population, endless economic stagnation.
But instead of forgetting past mistakes and going for large-scale cooperation with Russia, which would give Japan a second wind, Tokyo prefers to blow on the coals of old and imaginary grievances, it would be more logical to make claims to the United States, which still occupy their territory and subject them to city nuclear bombing.
Japan Self-Defense Forces
The number is about 300 thousand people, the number of reservists is about 50 thousand. The recruitment principle is voluntary. The population is over 127 million people, which is comparable to the population of the Russian Federation.
Ground forces - about 150 thousand (for 2007), 10 divisions (9 infantry and 1 tank), 18 brigades (3 infantry, 2 mixed, airborne, artillery, 2 anti-aircraft artillery, 5 engineering, helicopter, 3 training), 3 groups Air defense. Armament: about 1000 tanks, about 900 armored vehicles, about 2000 barrels of artillery and mortars (including self-propelled guns, anti-aircraft guns), 100 anti-ship missile installations, more than 100 MLRS, about 700 ATGM installations, 500 military air defense weapons, about 450 helicopters - of which about 100 drums.
Air Force: The number of personnel is 43-50 thousand people, 250 fighters and fighter-bombers (including 160 F-15 Eagle), 10 reconnaissance F-4 Phantom II (RF-4E), about 50 electronic warfare aircraft, radar, tankers, 30 transport workers, 240 training (can be used as reconnaissance aircraft, light fighters, bombers) - for example: 20 Mitsubishi F-2B fighter-bombers. The Air Force also has over 50 multi-role and transport helicopters.
Japanese Navy: The number is about 45 thousand people. The composition of the fleet: 1 destroyer-helicopter carrier of the "Hyuga" type, 4 destroyer-helicopter carriers of the "Shirane" and "Haruna" types, 8 URO destroyers of the "Atago", "Congo", "Hatakaze" types, 32 destroyers (5 of the "Takanami" types, 9 type "Murasame", 8 type "Asagiri", 10 type "Hatsuyuki"), 6 frigates of the "Abukuma" type, 20 PL - 2 type "Soryu" (2009-2010, several more are under construction), 11 type "Oyashio" ", 7 type" Harusio ".
There is also 1 minelayer, 2 minesweeper bases, 3 sea minesweepers, 3 large landing dock ships of the Osumi type (1 under construction), 2 small landing ships, 7 missile boats, 8 landing boats (including 6 project 1 hovercraft), 25 mine-sweeping boats, 5 sea tankers, 4 training ships, 2 training submarines, 2 command ships, 2 search and rescue vessels.
Naval Aviation: 172 aircraft and 133 helicopters (2007)
Coast Guard - more than 12 thousand people.
Air defense: about one and a half hundred long-range Patriot complexes (an analogue of our S-300), more than 500 MANPADS and ZA, about 70 short-range complexes Tan SAM Ture 81. Air defense is reinforced by AWACS type E-2 Hawai and 10 AWACS - " Boeing-767 ". All this is combined with the ACS and Air Defense "Badge" of the Navy.
Feature of the Japanese Navy: all ships are new, the “oldest” are from the mid-80s, most of them are new, from the 90s, 2000s.
Northern army: the most powerful army in Japan, was created to counter the USSR. Currently, Tokyo is strengthening the southern direction, but the process has just begun. It includes: 1 tank division, 3 infantry, an artillery brigade, an air defense missile system brigade, an engineering brigade. They are armed with about 90% of coastal PC complexes, more than half of the tanks, 90 MLRS, a third of the air defense systems and artillery, a quarter of the anti-tank systems of all the Armed Forces of Japan.
Our forces in the Far Eastern theater of operations
Pacific Fleet: In 2010, the fleet had 5 strategic missile submarines, 20 multipurpose submarines (twelve of them nuclear-powered), 10 combat surface ships in the ocean and sea zones, and 32 ships in the coastal zone. But part of the payroll is in conservation or requires major repairs - all ships of the 1980s and early 90s, only one missile boat of the Molniya type in 2004. For example, the heavy nuclear missile cruiser Admiral Lazarev is in conservation, out of 4 x destroyers three in conservation and repair (from conservation, a rare ship returns to the fleet).
In Vladivostok, a marine brigade, a separate marine regiment and an engineer battalion. 1 separate coastal missile regiment. In Kamchatka, an anti-aircraft missile regiment - S-300P.
Fleet problems: reconnaissance, target designation, dilapidated ships, air support and aerial reconnaissance are not enough.
Naval aviation: 1 separate mixed air regiment - Kamenny Ruchey (armed with Tu-22M3, Tu-142M3, Tu-142MR), separate mixed anti-submarine aviation regiment (Nikolaevka) with Il-38, Ka-27, Ka-29; a separate transport aviation squadron (Knevichi) with An-12, An-24, An-26; separate mixed air regiment (Elizovo) Il-38; a separate shipborne anti-submarine helicopter squadron (Elizovo) with the Ka-27.
Air Force: There are no aircraft on the Kuril Islands and Sakhalin, one base in Kamchatka - about 30-35 MiG-31 interceptor fighters, an air base near Vladivostok - 24 Su-27SM, 6 Su-27UB (combat training) and 12 MiG-31 (how many combat-ready is unknown). In comparative proximity - in Siberia there are two air bases with 30 Su-27 and 24 close-range bombers Su-24M, 24 Su-24M2. But there are no air tankers and AWACS aircraft. That is, aircraft do not "see far away" and their presence in the air is limited.
Ground troops: on Sakhalin there is a motorized rifle brigade, on the Kuril Islands one machine-gun and artillery division is not covered from the air, there is no air force, and the military air defense is not sufficient.
Scenarios of the 4th Russian-Japanese
- Short-term private operation: Japan strikes a surprise blow (they will not warn, this is a fact, as in 1904 and 1941 - they surprised the Russians in Port Arthur and the USA in Pearl Harbor) at the naval bases in Vladivostok and Petropavlovsk, while ironing the 18th division from the air and seas (possibly Sakhalin), then a landing operation, we lose the Kuriles and, possibly, Sakhalin. If they want to seize Sakhalin, they will. They will try to destroy most of the ships and infrastructure of the Pacific Fleet. Then, with the support of the United States and the world community, they will demand peace, returning Sakhalin, but solving the problem of the Northern Territories. The armed forces of the Russian Federation will not even have time to "wake up" properly, as the war ends. This is the most feasible option.
The Japanese Armed Forces have enough strength for this
If the Russian Federation does not go to peace, it will have to restore the Pacific Fleet, prepare amphibious transports, and it is necessary to create a complete 2-3-fold superiority over the Japanese Navy and Air Force, otherwise the islands will not be recaptured. This is not one year and great losses, because over the years Tokyo will create a powerful system of fortifications of the islands. And the world community will in every possible way condemn the aggressive preparations of the Russians.
Full-scale war: the most unlikely scenario. Tokyo is not ready for it, but in principle it can prepare in a few years, if the Pacific Fleet continues to rust and age, the Air Force and ground forces in the Far Eastern theater of operations will not strengthen. After all, nobody canceled the plan of "Great Japan" to the Urals. For example, 5-8 years later, Japan strikes a sudden blow, seizes the Kuriles and Sakhalin with lightning speed, smashes the remnants of the Pacific Fleet, lands amphibious divisions in Primorye and Kamchatka. Moscow does not go for the demonstrative use of nuclear weapons, throwing units from Siberia, the Urals and the European part of Russia into battle, everything comes not together, but in parts. As a result, Japan, suffering losses, will capture the Far East, but there will not be enough forces for further advancement.
China, threatening to strike from the south, will demand its share, the United States will want its share - Chukotka and Kamchatka. Tokyo will have to reconcile and yield to the great powers. Moscow will be able to win only by using nuclear weapons (a few strikes against enemy troops are enough) or by militarizing the Far East.
US position
Morally support an ally, secretly "ask" Moscow not to use nuclear weapons. They themselves will not fight; in the event of a full-scale war and the defeat of the Russian Federation, they will demand a share. Will try to become a mediator - offering to "make up", giving Tokyo islands.
China
He will condemn Tokyo's aggression, but will not fit in, in case of total success, Japan will demand a share, threatening war. Maybe "on the sly" occupy Mongolia, part of Central Asia.
What to do to prevent such scenarios
- Strengthen its armed forces, including the Pacific Fleet, Air Force, and ground forces.
- Clearly declare diplomatically that we will never give up ours, and in case of war and the lack of conventional armed forces, we will respond with all available means.
- To start a large-scale program for the development of the Far East, encouraging the resettlement of the surplus population there from the European part of Russia and demographic programs for the growth of the indigenous population (stimulating families with three or more children).
- If possible, take the place of the United States as an ally of JapanBy proposing joint programs for space exploration, jointly developing industrial and scientific projects, Russia is huge - Japan's investments will find a worthy application.
