The fragile ceasefire that came in February is practically openly used by the parties to the conflict to prepare for hostilities. On Monday, a message appeared on the Facebook page of the Ukrainian Armed Forces press center: “Workers from different regions of Ukraine are building up a system of fortifications along the demarcation line. The defensive lines will be equipped with bunkers, caponiers, dugouts. The political leadership of Ukraine does not seem to see peace as a near-term prospect for its people.
DILIETANTS LEARN LOSS
On April 9, 2014, the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine Arsen Avakov said that the situation in the regions where the ATO regime was introduced could be resolved within 48 hours. He noted that there are two options for the development of events in Donetsk and Lugansk regions: political and power, the emphasis was on the word “power”. As you know, the "situation" was not resolved in 48 hours.
With the outbreak of hostilities in the Donbass, an overwhelming advantage in forces and means, air supremacy allowed the Ukrainian command to destroy the militia of the self-proclaimed DPR and LPR, but this did not happen. Affected primarily by the unwillingness to take decisive action and the sluggishness of the leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as the poor control of the troops available at that time at the disposal of the General Staff.
In the spring of 2014, the Ukrainian command had at its disposal, albeit not in its best shape, but still an army. The General Staff managed to concentrate sufficient forces in the southeast of the country to conduct successful hostilities: about 10-15 thousand bayonets, about 250 armored vehicles, artillery and aviation. The Donbass militia was armed only with small arms and had no more than 2 thousand bayonets. Moreover, this insignificant force was dispersed over the territory of the entire region, the largest group of fighters - about 800 bayonets - was in Slavyansk.
APU OFFENSIVE AND SECURITY COUNTER OFFENSIVE
Having missed the opportunity to suppress the armed uprising of Donetsk and Luhansk in the spring, Kiev made a serious attempt to break up the militia in July 2014. The General Staff of Ukraine managed to significantly increase the number of troops, including at the expense of volunteer battalions, as well as create a significant advantage over the enemy in armored vehicles and artillery. By that time, the rebel paramilitary formations of Donbass had also increased in number due to the influx of volunteers. In addition, the militia now has armored vehicles, artillery and air defense equipment. The latter factor forced Kiev to abandon the use of aviation in hostilities. The Ukrainian Armed Forces launched an offensive without regard to the possibility of enemy flank counterattacks and paid dearly for this. Petro Poroshenko's order "to narrow the ring around the terrorists, to continue the operation to liberate Donetsk and Luhansk regions" was not fulfilled this time either. The summer counter-offensive of the militia, successes near Ilovaisk, in the southern and southwestern directions, plunged the Ukrainian General Staff into shock. The Ukrainian Armed Forces were on the verge of losing Mariupol.
Perhaps the Ukrainian command during this period began to think that the independence of numerous volunteer battalions as part of the ATO forces is a serious obstacle to the planning and organization of hostilities. In any case, having survived the August counteroffensive of the militia, the Ilovaisk pot, the loss of the Luhansk airport, and later, in the winter, the loss of the Donetsk airport and the Debaltsevsky ledge, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the General Staff of Ukraine finally decided to put an end to the confusion in the forces involved in Donbass. Volunteer battalions that did not want to become subordinate to the Ministry of Defense or the Ministry of Internal Affairs are disarmed and disbanded, including in a strictly compulsory manner. The measure is necessary, the army must get rid of the undisciplined "partisans", otherwise it will not have to count on success in hostilities. On April 11 this year, Colonel-General Stepan Poltorak announced the complete reorganization of all volunteer formations and their subordination to the Ministry of Defense, the Ministry of Internal Affairs or the SBU of Ukraine. It seems that he was in a hurry with his statement.
As if in defiance of the Minister of Defense of Ukraine, the representative of the "Right Sector" banned on the territory of the Russian Federation Artem Skoropadsky informed the government, the public and the media Nezalezhnaya that the combat wing of the "Right Sector" was ready to join the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but not "on general rights" but only as a separate unit, which will continue to obey its leader Dmitry Yarosh. From which we can conclude that the problem of complete subordination of volunteer units to the Armed Forces of Ukraine has not been resolved. There is one more problem: the ATO forces do not have a coherent system of subordination, which brings chaos to the command and control of troops. Let me refer to the opinion expressed by many Ukrainian bloggers and commanders of volunteer battalions. I will voice this opinion in the words of Semyon Semenchenko (commander of the Donbass battalion): “The Ukrainian army has enough forces and means, but poor leadership is hindering victory.” Unfortunately, I have to rely on the statements and opinions of non-professionals, what to do if professionals are silent on this matter.
The operational command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, instead of working with the commanders and headquarters of the formations, is forced to sink to the setting of tasks for a large number of patchwork units, bypassing intermediate links. In addition to the inconveniences of a purely managerial nature, this method of command is also flawed by the fact that tasks for the troops are assigned from the "office", without taking into account changes in the operational situation. Again, the lack of a coherent military organization brings confusion to the issues of providing troops. And the main reason for the military failures of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is the "strange" decisions of the political leadership of Ukraine related to the ATO and military development. The President of Ukraine too often involves non-professionals in managing the power structures.
DONBASS GETS RID OF MAKHNOVSHCHINA
Unlike the Armed Forces of the DPR and LPR, they created their armed forces from scratch. Now the need to turn many partisan armed formations into a regular army for Donbass is urgent. And here, the process of centralization of command and control of the armed forces, as the militias themselves call it, is actively underway - "obrigazhivanie". All paramilitaries that do not obey the command of the Donbass militia are disarmed, sometimes with the use of force.
In the wake of protests against the Kiev government, which came to power as a result of the coup, many armed groups of an openly criminal nature arose in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Their elimination is one of the urgent tasks. The militia forces use the truce to fight precisely against crime. One swoop cannot resolve this issue, as practice shows, this struggle requires a lot of effort and time.
FORCES AND MEANS OF THE PARTIES
Since the Ukrainian Armed Forces uses the names of military units, units and formations that are unusual for the ear of a Russian professional military man, in some cases it is necessary to use conventional terminology. Think of it as a consequence of translation difficulties. Blogosphere publications were used as sources of information. Data on the Ukrainian Armed Forces were mainly obtained from sources in the DPR and LPR. Information about the Donbass troops was taken from Ukrainian sources.
The ATO forces, whose command post (CP) is located in Kramatorsk, includes troops of two zones: the operational command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine - "North" (headquarters in Zhitomir) and "South" (headquarters in Dnepropetrovsk), whose headquarters are outside the theater of operations. The ATO force group includes up to 20 brigades, including six mechanized, three airmobile, one airborne, three artillery, etc. In addition, the National Guard, volunteer battalions and other structures subordinate to the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the SBU participate in the battles in Donbass. Also involved are many so-called territorial battalions, manned by volunteers. In fact, there is not a single full-strength brigade on the front line, to be more precise, there are consolidated formations - battalion tactical groups (BTG) and company tactical groups (RTG), including units of various branches of the Ground Forces.
BTG, RTG and other units are united into sectors, each of them has its own area of responsibility or front sector. The sector can be conditionally equated with an incomplete division, manned by a mixture of subunits from different formations, structures and departments, with different states of combat effectiveness. In addition to the army forces, these sectors include units of the National Guard and other paramilitary organizations subordinate to the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the Security Service of Ukraine, including volunteer formations such as "Azov", "Dnepr", "Donbass", etc. Such a complex organization of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, perhaps, arose under the pressure of circumstances and in connection with the operational situation that developed at the first stage of the war, as well as due to the absence of a front line. Now military operations in Donbass are moving into a qualitatively different state and are taking on the features of a maneuver-positional war, where there is a front line, battle formations are echeloned in depth, operational lines and rokads are acquiring a different qualitative meaning, for resolving issues of support, replenishment, redeployment of troops and maneuver. Under the new conditions, the advantage will be on the side of the regular army with the correct structure, competent commanders and impeccably working headquarters and rear.
By the beginning of April 2015, the Ukrainian side had 60-65 thousand people, taking into account the rear units and volunteer battalions. By June, it is possible to increase the anti-terrorist operation forces up to 80-85 thousand or even up to 100 thousand bayonets. As for military equipment, about 250-300 units from the available reserve can be added to the number of armored vehicles that are already participating in the database. Basically, the Ukrainian army will have to be content with what it has, since there is simply nowhere else to take more. The situation can only be saved by the supply of military equipment from abroad. As for the towed artillery, the stocks of guns in the warehouses have not yet been exhausted. Today, the anti-terrorist operation forces have about three hundred tanks, about 900 armored personnel carriers (about 300 more can be prepared within a year), at the disposal of the security forces there are about 800 units of cannon and rocket artillery, of which self-propelled guns - about 300 units. For the time being, the Ukrainian security forces do not experience a shortage of ammunition.
The Donbass police have increased significantly over the past three to four months. The replenishment of the Armed Forces of Novorossiya (VSN) with personnel and equipment was significant. By early April, the number of militia was estimated at 35-40 thousand bayonets, by June, according to forecasts, it should increase to 62-65 thousand bayonets. The militia has about 500 tanks, about 700 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles (there is a noticeable lag behind the Armed Forces of Ukraine). VSN has about 800 pieces of cannon and rocket artillery and has a great advantage over the enemy in the number of MLRS.
At the moment, it can be said that the VSN consists of two army corps (AK). The unification was not finally completed due to some organizational friction between the DPR and LPR elites. But be that as it may, the errors associated with the lack of interaction between the troops of the two republics' troops in the battles near Debaltseve were taken into account, and moreover, there is information about the presence of a general operational command. The Ukrainian side believes that such rapid positive changes in the military development of the Donbass republics occurred thanks to the “advisers”.
The 1st AK (command post in Donetsk) includes five motorized rifle brigades, one artillery brigade, a separate commandant regiment, three separate special-purpose detachments and three brigades are being formed at the moment, where, possibly, separate BTGs that have not yet become part of not a single connection. The 2nd AK (command post in Lugansk) includes three motorized rifle brigades, a separate commandant regiment. At the moment, three more motorized rifle brigades, one artillery and one tank brigade are completing their formation. It must be admitted that the Armed Forces have succeeded in matters of military development and are ahead of their adversary, the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in this matter.
NO SPECIAL ADVANTAGES FOR ANY PARTY
Consider the entire front line from the flank abutting the border with Russia not far from Bolotennoye, Luhansk region and up to Shirokino, where the other flank of the front rests on the Sea of Azov. We are talking about the troops located directly on the line of contact. The information below was taken from the Web, the sources were publications of Ukrainian and Novorossian bloggers.
Sector A of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has more than 3, 1 thousand personnel, 20 tanks, up to 200 armored vehicles, about 100 mortars, the same number of towed artillery units, 80 MLRS. This sector hangs over Luhansk from the north: its area of responsibility along the front - from Severodonetsk to the border with the Russian Federation, in depth - to the cities of Shchastya and Starobelsk. As part of sector B (in the designation of ATO sectors, Latin letters are used) over 2, 2 thousand bayonets, up to 30 tanks, about 120 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles, about 100 mortars, about 80 artillery pieces and about 30 MLRS. This sector occupies positions from Severodonetsk to the administrative border of Luhansk and Donetsk regions.
Barrel and rocket artillery is the main firepower of this war. Photo by Reuters
From the LPR side, in this sector of the front, hostilities are being conducted: the Second Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (OMBr), the Cossack regiments of Kozitsyn and Dremov, the Third OMBr "Ghost". In the grouping there are about 7 thousand fighters, up to 50 tanks, about 140 armored vehicles and over 240 units of cannon and rocket artillery. The remaining formations, units and separate subdivisions of the 2nd AK (Second Army Corps of the VSN, which was formed on the basis of the People's Militia of the LPR) have been withdrawn to the rear and are engaged in comprehensive preparation for a possible continuation of hostilities.
In this area of Donbass, there is an increased activity of sabotage groups of the opposing sides operating in the front-line zones.
In sector C of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the number of personnel is more than 4 thousand. Bayonets. After the departure from Debaltseve, the sector is understaffed, there is no information about the presence of armored vehicles and artillery. Sector units occupy the front section along the line: Popasnaya – Svetlodarsk – Dzerzhinsk. Sector D adjoins it to the right, whose forces are estimated at more than 4 thousand bayonets, 50 tanks, 250-300 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles, about 100 mortars, about 200 artillery pieces of various calibers, over 100 MLRS. The leading edge of this sector runs along the line: Dzerzhinsk – Yenakiyevo – Avdeevka – Krasnogorovka.
Sectors of the Armed Forces C and D are opposed by the first echelons of the following formations and units of the Armed Forces: seven OMBR "Kalmius", three OMBR "Berkut", OMBr "Vostok", one OMBr "Slavyanskaya", two BTGs of the DPR Guard. The number of the entire group is more than 14 thousand people. It has at its disposal about 120 tanks, up to 100 armored vehicles, about 200 units of cannon and rocket artillery.
Sector E of the Armed Forces of Ukraine occupies a section of the front from Krasnogorovka to Slavnoye. The forces of this compound are estimated at 3 thousand.people, up to 20 tanks, no more than 100 armored vehicles, about 150 units of cannon and rocket artillery. The flanks of the sector are covered by the M4 and H15 motorways, which the Ukrainian Armed Forces use as operating lines.
Sector F of the Armed Forces of Ukraine occupies the area between Volnovakha and Novotroitsky. The main forces of the sector are drawn to the rear, such an arrangement of troops makes it easy for them to maneuver. Apparently, in this sector of the front, the Ukrainian General Staff is concentrating troops to repeat the attempt to capture Donetsk from the south. The sector has 4,000 or more bayonets. Here are concentrated about 50 tanks, about 150 armored vehicles, about 300 units of cannon and rocket artillery.
From the DPR side, the front against sectors E and F holds 5 OMBR "Oplot". The rebels in this sector have up to 3 thousand soldiers, 25-30 tanks, up to 100 armored vehicles, 110-120 units of cannon and rocket artillery. The battle formations of the brigade are somewhat stretched, but this deficiency is compensated for by the reserve of the VSN, which is concentrated in the Amvrosievka area.
Sector G of the ATO forces occupies positions in the Mariupol area, at its disposal over 4 thousand soldiers, about 30 tanks, 120-150 armored vehicles, over 300 units of cannon and rocket artillery. According to the intelligence of the militia, units of the 93rd mechanized, 17th tank, 95th airmobile, 40th artillery brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, soldiers of the National Guard, the Azov regiment, the battalions "Donbass", "Dnepr" are deployed in Mariupol and its environs, "Holy Mary", police battalions from Ivano-Frankivsk, Lvov, Vinnitsa, fighters of the Ukrainian Volunteer Corps "Right Sector" (DUK PS). In Mariupol itself, movements were noticed: self-propelled guns "Msta S"; movement in the transportable and towed form of mortars "Vasilek", howitzers D30, the movement of small columns of armored vehicles: T64, BTR-4E, BTR-70. One of the ammunition points was found in the village of Agrobaza, which is located along the road to Mangush, just outside the city limits. The front line of the sector's defense runs along the line: Shirokino (exclusively), Kominternovo, October (exclusively), Pavlopol, Chermalik, Nikolaevka (exclusively), Granitnoe.
The left flank of sector G does not just cover the Granitnoye n / a, a strike group has been formed here, which poses a threat of a breakthrough to Telmanovo and further to the east. If successful, such an action by the Ukrainian troops could cut off the militia's rokada (highway T0508, Novoazovsk – Donetsk).
It was not possible to find such detailed information about the forces of the VSN in this area. According to the Ukrainian side, the militia concentrated here up to 2,500 personnel, about 30 tanks, up to 90 armored vehicles and about 140 units of cannon and rocket artillery.
The above has been given so that the reader can imagine the big picture. I admit that there are some inaccuracies in the information provided, I have to rely on available sources and take into account that the operational situation is constantly changing.
THE NEAREST PERSPECTIVE OF DONBASS IS NOT CLEAR
Karl von Clausewitz once remarked that war is the continuation of politics by other (violent) means. The assertion that the military should obey politicians also belongs to him. It is not the military who unleashes wars, but politicians, and the responsibility for the consequences also lies with them. The political leadership of Ukraine, in fact, having no realistic plan for the future development of the country and state building, is forced to make a choice in favor of continuing the war. The situation is aggravated by the fact that political decisions for Independent are made not in Kiev, but in Washington. President Poroshenko cannot end hostilities by his decision for many reasons. One of the reasons has already been named, the second is the strongest economic crisis that hit Ukraine. The country's leadership is unable to cope with it and is simply plugging the holes with loans and the money that is in one way or another at the disposal of the government, including taxes. The level of corruption in the power structures of Ukraine is unprecedentedly high, the standard of living of the country's population is falling rapidly, and the war makes it possible to maintain patriotic sentiments among the people, thanks to it the image of the enemy has been created and the hatred of the masses is aimed at this image. The war is attributed to the economic crisis, the increase in utility tariffs, the reduction of social programs and, in general, all the mistakes and deliberate negative actions of the country's political leadership. If the war stops tomorrow, Kiev will immediately face many unsolvable problems that could lead to an upsurge of popular discontent and the emergence of new hotbeds of confrontation. With arms in hand, its allies, the Ukrainian nationalists, can also come out against the Ukrainian government.
As for the political leadership of the LPR and DPR, they do not have realistic plans for state building either. So it turns out that the war for Kiev and Donbass at the moment is the only realistic political plan for the near future, by the way, allowing to receive significant assistance from outside. The third truce is used by both sides to actively prepare for the continuation of hostilities. In terms of strength and means, the warring parties have practically reached equilibrium. Along the entire confrontation line, despite reaching an agreement on a ceasefire, shelling is going on in varying degrees of intensity, both cannon and rocket artillery are involved in the case. Both sides claim to activate the enemy's DRG in the front-line zone. But at the same time, large-scale hostilities do not begin, everyone is waiting for signals from across the ocean.
THE WAR IS WILLED UNTIL VICTORY
I don’t know whether Petro Poroshenko read Clausewitz or not, but the famous postulate of this German “the war is fought until victory, and the point” seems to be familiar to the Ukrainian president. In the public speeches of the commander-in-chief of the "evil forces" no, no, yes, and slips his intention to fight to the last Ukrainian. Politicians of both sides have been talking about a possible imminent resumption of fighting in southeastern Ukraine since the first day of the armistice.
The military plans of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Armed Forces are largely interconnected, here, like in a chess game, the troops are located so that it is possible to instantly react to any move of the enemy. The Ukrainian side has noticeably intensified the shelling of the forward edge and the front-line zone of the Donbass militia in the Luhansk and Donetsk directions, as well as in the Shirokino area. In places, attacks were carried out with small forces, which could be mistaken for reconnaissance in force, but most likely these are diversionary actions to hide the maneuver of troops in another sector of the front.
It is hard to imagine that the Ukrainian General Staff would dare to storm Donetsk, Lugansk or Horlivka. Firstly, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have no experience in taking large, partially prepared for defense cities with strong garrisons. In the event of an assault, huge losses cannot be avoided. Secondly, the Ukrainian side does not have sufficient forces and means for these purposes. A repetition of the attempt to blockade Donetsk may be more realistic for the anti-terrorist operation forces. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine concentrates troops in the area of Artemovsk and Volnovakha, it can be assumed that strikes are being prepared on Debaltsevo, then bypassing Gorlovka and on Dokuchaevsk, then on Starobeshevo. The task of such movements is simple: to create bridgeheads for the operation to cut off Donetsk from the rest of the rebel territory. As Clausewitz wrote, "If you want to win, hit the heart of your opponent." The old plan, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has already tried to implement it. The Ukrainian side is unlikely to undertake a breakthrough to great depths. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine can try to accomplish this task in several stages, if, of course, it dares. As a distraction, in order to prevent the VSN from transferring troops to dangerous sectors of the front, ATO forces may strike at Lugansk, Telmanovo, the northwestern outskirts of Donetsk (including the airport) and Novoazovsk. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine concentrated forces sufficient for such tasks in Lisichansk, north-west of Donetsk, as well as in Granitnoye and Mariupol.
There are other options as well. One thing I can say for sure: no matter what the command of the Armed Forces undertakes, the offensive impulse of the Ukrainian troops is not so great and the morale of the regular troops is not so high that these qualities can be relied upon. The forces of the Ukrainian army are insufficient to ensure numerical, technical and fire superiority over the enemy along the entire front line. The Ukrainian command does not know how to concentrate troops in order to achieve multiple superiority in forces in the breakthrough sector unnoticed by the enemy. Here it is worth agreeing with Vladimir Putin's assertion that the result of a new attempt by the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be the same as in the summer of 2014 and in the winter of 2015.
HOW CAN VSN RESPOND TO THE OPPONENT'S ACTIONS
The current truce makes it possible for the Armed Forces of Ukraine to prepare troops, regroup, replenish the number, supply the troops with everything necessary for conducting military operations, prepare for defense where it is expedient, including in engineering terms. The command of the VSN certainly takes this circumstance into account.
From the side of the VSN, counterstrikes on the flanks of the enemy's Artyomovsk grouping and the creation of a new boiler in the Svetlodarsk region are possible in the event of offensive actions of the AFU in this sector. Serious battles can start in the Dokuchaevsk area if the Armed Forces of Ukraine attempts to cover Donetsk from the south there. It is possible that the VSN command is planning to destroy the Ukrainian troops concentrated in the Avdeevka-Maryinka-Selidovo triangle. Such an action would allow the enemy to be thrown back a long distance from Donetsk, thereby securing the city. But in the operational situation that has developed at the moment, taking into account all the forces and means available to the militia, such an offensive is unlikely; you cannot do without help here.
VSN is preparing for battles on its left flank. In the event of a resumption of hostilities, the Ukrainian side will certainly throw its irregular forces ("Azov" and other partisans who are already rushing into battle) into the offensive here as a diversionary blow, as discussed above.
LEFT SHORE, RIGHT SHORE
We can say that in a sense, Ukraine has returned to the 17th century, during the Hetmanate and Ruins. The modern confrontation between Donbass and Kiev is similar to the events of that era: an armed uprising of the left-bank Cossacks, gravitating towards Russia, against the right-bank ones, which tended to allegiance either to the Polish king or to the Turkish sultan.
The most difficult times in those distant years came during the reign of Hetman Petro Doroshenko. Ironically, the current Ukrainian crisis is associated with a name consonant with that historical character. It seems that someone was joking evil. Is history repeating itself, and this time in the form of a cruel farce?
FOR A YEAR OF MILITARY ACTIONS IN THE TERRITORY OF DONBASS
The total death toll, according to German intelligence, exceeded 50 thousand people. These figures look realistic; the Syrian civil war has about the same statistics (50 thousand deaths per year).
According to President Poroshenko himself, Donbass lost up to 40% of industrial facilities, about 600 enterprises in total. The leader of the DPR, Alexander Zakharchenko, gives a more pessimistic assessment of losses, according to his information, 90% of industrial enterprises have been stopped, and 70% have been completely or partially destroyed.
The exact number of houses destroyed has yet to be calculated. According to preliminary estimates, about 12% of the total housing stock was destroyed during the hostilities. 1,514 railway infrastructure facilities, more than 1,500 km of roads and 33 bridges were damaged. The number of refugees is approaching 2 million.
How many soldiers died in the battle remains to be seen. Each side seeks to underestimate its losses and overestimate the losses of the enemy. The information provided by both parties is not trustworthy. However, a rough estimate of the losses of military equipment and artillery of the Armed Forces of Ukraine can be made thanks to the revelations of President Poroshenko. For the summer campaign in 2014 alone, it accounted for 65% of the total fleet at the disposal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Even without accurate data, one can imagine a general picture of this information. The loss of military equipment of the VSN is more difficult to determine.
