Sevastopol without a fleet. Was it possible to imagine such a situation 25 years ago. A person who spoke in this spirit would be looked sideways, and even turned a finger at his temple. However, today a situation is emerging that may well lead to the withdrawal of the Russian Black Sea Fleet from the city of military sailors. Different people look at this situation differently. So what can the demilitarized Sevastopol expect, and why is the possibility of Russian sailors leaving the base in Crimea already quite real?
Issues related to the Black Sea Fleet, or rather to relations between Russia and Ukraine in this regard, have always been extremely acute. At one time Viktor Yushchenko tried so actively to drag Ukraine into the North Atlantic Alliance that he wanted to make a decision almost unilaterally to ban the deployment of Russian ships in Sevastopol. But the Yushchenko era is over, and new Ukrainian politicians have come to power, led by Viktor Yanukovych. A promising agreement was signed in the city of Kharkov, which documented the right of Russians to operate a naval base in Crimea. However, even the signed agreements some Ukrainian officials are already trying to interpret in their favor. Many people appear, according to whose logic the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation only slows down the development of Sevastopol. If, they say, the Russians had taken their ships out of the bay, then the wave of economic growth would have brought Sevastopol to the galaxy of successful business centers.
People who decide to express such thoughts are either poorly familiar with economic laws, or refuse to recognize them. Today there are more than fifty thousand jobs in the city. And this is almost 34% of the total able-bodied population of the city. Simple mathematical calculations can be used to calculate what loss Sevastopol can incur if Russian ships are withdrawn from there. Of course, if the Ukrainian authorities fill the vacuum with ships, so to speak, from other countries - it is clear what kind of ships we are talking about, then jobs can be saved. However, in Sevastopol, as they say, everything is tailored specifically for the Russians. To re-equip the infrastructure for a NATO base, not a single billion dollars will have to be invested in the development of the city. NATO sailors are much more fastidious than Russian and Ukrainian ones, so they are unlikely to want to use what may remain from the base of the Russian Navy. Some politicians see Sevastopol as completely demilitarized. Such views can be called dystopian.
Expelling the Russian fleet from Sevastopol today will be the same for Ukraine as if Kazakhstani politicians decided to rid Baikonur of the cosmodrome. Here, of course, the ecology will improve, and there will be less noise, as they say, but you need to understand that this threatens a real collapse of the municipal economy.
Of course, today the degree of participation of the naval segments in the life of the city has sharply decreased in comparison with the Soviet period. Many clubs, rest homes for the servicemen of the Black Sea Fleet have been closed. However, this is a purely economic problem that has nothing to do with the seafarers themselves.
The total underfunding of the nineties led to the fact that some military ships did not leave the bay for several years, but peacefully rusted. However, today the situation with the strengthening of the army and navy in Russia seems to be improving. In this regard, Ukrainian politicians need to think about how to benefit from the presence of Russian sailors in Crimea. Only short-sighted politicians can break all existing agreements in order to then start looking for ways out of the economic impasse for Sevastopol.
We are already witnessing how the unscrupulous actions of Ukrainian politicians led to the fact that Russia decided to "bypass" Ukraine with the help of northern and southern gas streams. Mr. Yanukovych is trying to find some mutually beneficial terms, but, burnt in milk, Russia is now blowing on the water. The gas "trough" for fraternal Ukraine is gradually emptying. And at this time, instead of constructive proposals for cooperation, there are talks about revising the Kharkiv agreements again.
In the end, the Russian authorities may decide on a real withdrawal of the Black Sea Fleet from Sevastopol. But will this make it easier for both states? Neither from the economic point of view, nor from the point of view of security, this is not logically explained. Is it possible that again the personal interests of a handful of powerful and financial tycoons can cause a new break in relations between Ukraine and Russia.
In this regard, it can be noted that the entire world economy today is built on mutual integration. The destruction of relationships that have been built for centuries, the burning of bridges and other demarches have never led partners to prosperity. This means that instead of dealing with another Russophobic issue, some Ukrainian politicians should be advised to look at the prospects. As these perspectives, the deserted Sevastopol looms, in which it is necessary to invest so much that the Ukrainian budget may not withstand such a financial shock.
Sevastopol without a fleet is perceived, if not a ghost town, then at least a somewhat orphaned and ownerless settlement, investment interests on the part of Russia to which will sharply decline.
