Military-technical cooperation (MTC) has always been the main element of our partnership with China. Almost ten years ago, China bought from us a fairly wide range of weapons, including destroyers, combat and transport aircraft and helicopters, and even missile technology - for a total of about $ 1.5-1.8 billion a year. But already at the beginning of this decade, the situation has changed dramatically.
Recent deliveries and the first project of a new type
Despite the fact that the volume of our military-technical cooperation with China in nominal terms has remained practically at the same level, the range of military supplies has now sharply decreased. This is due to the gigantic successes of the Chinese military-industrial complex, which on its own was able to organize the production of very high-quality small arms and armored vehicles of all types, as well as warships of the near and far ocean zones. At the same time, the Chinese industry has advanced quite far in the production of third-generation front-line fighters and in the cloning of fourth-generation Russian-designed vehicles and air defense systems. Moreover, a few years ago, China even presented a project of its own fifth generation fighter, which, however, looks very similar to the MiG created in our country at the turn of the century (product 1.44), which did not go into series.
As a result, now purchases of Russian equipment are of a point, if not selective nature. In other words, the Chinese acquire from us only the newest types of technology, which they have not yet learned how to clone qualitatively, or it is, in principle, impossible at this stage. First of all, we are talking about the Russian RD-33 aircraft engines, which are equipped with Chinese third-generation FC-1 aircraft, as well as the export version of the fifth-generation J-31 fighter. In addition, for their fourth generation J-10 and J-11 fighters (Su-30 clones), the Chinese buy AL-31F power plants from us. The thing is that own Chinese-made aircraft engines for these aircraft - WS-10, WS-13, WS-15 - have too little assigned resource. Three or four years ago, for example, for the WS-10 power plant, it was only about 300 hours, which is several times less than that of Russian counterparts. True, the Chinese have recently announced that they have managed to increase the resource of their engine to 1500 hours, but they could not confirm this with any documents.
Finally, in addition to complex systems and subsystems for its military equipment, the Ministry of Defense of the PRC still continues to acquire the latest final samples from us. So, at the end of 2014, the PRC signed a contract with Russia for the supply of at least six divisions of the S-400 air defense system worth more than $ 3 billion. A few months ago, an agreement was signed on the supply to China of 24 Su-35 fighters worth 2 billion dollars, which belong to the so-called generation 4 ++. In the case of the S-400, the Chinese are primarily interested in a new radar and a new ultra-long-range missile, which, along with other weapons, is included in this air defense system. All other components of our new system, the Chinese have long since learned to do it themselves. As for the Su-35, there is no particular point in buying these machines from China, but this contract simply could not be signed for political reasons, since it was discussed for too long and is important from the point of view of the balance of the Russian-Chinese turnover. Nevertheless, it must be clearly understood that the agreements on the Su-35 and S-400 are likely to become the last supply contracts for ready-made Russian military equipment in the PRC. There is no doubt that further development of the technological partnership between Russia and China is possible only on condition of joint creation of new sophisticated technology, and not necessarily military, but necessarily through the joint efforts of designers of the two countries. It is obvious that in Russia and China all this is well understood. That is why now Moscow and Beijing are betting on an equal technological partnership in the implementation of new joint projects. The first such project, in fact, has already started.
"ChinaRobus" for $ 20 billion
The head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov signed an intergovernmental agreement with his Chinese counterpart Miao Wei on the joint development, production, commercialization and after-sales service of a new wide-body passenger aircraft. In China itself, it has already received the working name C929. This airliner should appear on the world market in about ten years and end the long-standing duopoly of the current industry leaders - Airbus and Boeing, which still reign supreme in the segment of long-haul high-capacity aircraft. Moreover, this program has every chance of becoming one of the most ambitious projects of Russian-Chinese cooperation in the field of high technologies. Its total cost is estimated at between $ 13 billion and $ 20 billion.
It has already been decided that all the work on the new airliner will be carried out by a special joint venture, which the United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) and the Chinese civil aviation company COMAC will create on an equal footing. Moreover, as follows from the agreement signed by the President of the UAC Yuri Slyusar with the chairman of the board of directors of COMAC Jin Tsanglun, the new joint venture should be registered in the PRC by the end of this year.
The technical characteristics of the new liner are still known only in the most general terms. It is assumed that this aircraft will accommodate 250-280 passengers and have a maximum flight range of 12 thousand kilometers. The whole question is how COMAC and the UAC will agree on the distribution of work. It is clear that the Russian engineering school, unlike the Chinese one, has all the necessary knowledge to create such a liner. We have already developed and produced wide-body aircraft with four engines - Il-86 and Il-96. True, even by the beginning of this century, they turned out to be uncompetitive, both due to high fuel consumption and due to the too low level of use of composite materials.
Nevertheless, Russia already has experience in creating from scratch a technologically successful narrow-body aircraft that meets absolutely all world standards, which will certainly be in demand when designing a new wide-body model. We are talking about the SSJ 100. Now in the world there are already more than 70 of these machines, including in Ireland and Mexico. Over 4 years of operation, they have carried over 3 million passengers. But the Chinese analogue of this car - ARJ21 - made its first commercial flight only last week. And this despite the fact that both aircraft began to be developed at the same time. But that is not all.
Just a month ago, our country proved to the whole world that it is capable of creating a mainline narrow-body airliner - MS-21. This aircraft as a whole is composed of more than 40% composite materials, and its wings are almost 100%. The so-called black wings are a revolutionary innovation for narrow-body aircraft. Their use significantly reduces the total weight of the liner structure and promises truly fantastic benefits during operation.
Nowadays, only four manufacturers own technologies for manufacturing large-size one-piece composite wings - more than 18 meters long and more than three meters wide: Airbus, Boeing, Canadian Bombardier and our UAC. Note that the Chinese did not even try to use this technology when developing their own long-haul narrow-body aircraft - C919. As a result, the new Chinese liner consists almost entirely of aluminum alloys, which makes it uncompetitive in the world market.
Considering all this, it is logical to assume that for the new wide-body aircraft, Russia will make the wings and tail unit, and our Chinese partners will make the fuselage. In the latter case, the widespread use of composite materials is not expected, so there is no need to worry about the work of Chinese colleagues. Nevertheless, one weak point is already visible in the new liner - this is the engine. Neither we, let alone the PRC, have ever produced power plants for large twin-engine wide-body aircraft. This means that, at least at first, a GE, Rolls-Royce or Pratt & Whitney engine will be installed on the new Russian-Chinese liner. Most likely, one of those that are equipped with Boeing 787-8 or Airbus A350-900. However, the Perm design bureau Aviadvigatel has already promised to develop its own Russian engine with a thrust of 35 tons - PD-35 for the new aircraft in 10 years. “We have calculated the approximate parameters of the engine and are ready for development. This is an expensive project, we tentatively estimate it at 180 billion rubles "- said the general director of Aviadvigatel Alexander Inozemtsev.
The management of the Chinese company COMAC hopes to release, together with the UAC, a total of about 1,000 new wide-body aircraft. And this task does not look unsolvable. According to Boeing's forecasts, in the next 20 years, about 8, 8 thousand wide-body airliners will be sold in the world for a total of $ 2, 7 trillion. Of these, about 1.5 thousand are expected to be acquired by China. But Russia, which now operates only about 70 of these airliners, will, at best, acquire only one and a half to two hundred. Nevertheless, given the Chinese demand, this is quite enough for this project to take place.
