Perhaps, in the recent history of the Russian army, there has not yet been a topic that has caused as much controversy as the state program for rearmament, calculated until 2020 (GPV-2020). The main reason for all the talk on this matter was the unprecedented volume of planned funding - 20 trillion rubles directly for the purchase of new material and another three trillion to upgrade the production capacities of domestic defense enterprises. The attention paid to industry is quite understandable and justified, because now in our country there are almost no factories or factories that would not have problems with equipment, areas, etc. In particular, this is why Sberbank also decided to participate in GPV-2020. However, this organization, as befits banks, will issue loans to enterprises. In the next 3-5 years, Sberbank will allocate about two trillion rubles for these purposes. We should also expect similar decisions from other banks, the share of which belongs to the state.
Obviously, such a large investment in the defense industry cannot be wasted. Moreover, it is already clear that they will change it. Well, taking into account the specific volumes in comparison with other expenses, it can be assumed that these changes will, to a certain extent, affect other areas of the Russian economy. At the moment, there are five areas in which 23 trillion of public money will be embodied.
1. Defense capability
The simplest and most obvious plus from investments in the defense industry is an increase in the state's defense capability. In light of the announced amounts, the effect of rearmament looks quite real. Yes, and domestic weapons and military equipment are successful in the international market, which can be considered proof of its competitiveness not only in the field of tenders. The active purchases of our equipment by foreign countries indicate that it fits into their defense doctrines and, as a result, can be recognized as modern. Thus, our defense industry is quite capable of creating good and worthy models, and one of the main problems is insufficient funding.
It should be noted that modernizing the armed forces will not be easy. If only because new types of equipment will need to be created taking into account their service life and to predict which of them will be relevant over the next 20-30 years. Therefore, for example, in the field of tank building, it is worth paying special attention to armored vehicles with an uninhabited turret and a capsule for the crew. Such designs are still an unconventional solution, which takes time and, importantly, money to develop. In addition, radically new designs will definitely require new technologies. Here we smoothly come to the second point.
2. Industry
Unfortunately, our defense complex already in the late eighties began to live from hand to mouth. A whole series of unreasonable decisions, first by the leadership of one country, and then another, formed on the ruins of the first, led the defense industry complex to a very bad state. A more or less decent situation was only at those enterprises that were engaged in the manufacture of finished products that were sent for export. But even there, rolling of cheese in butter was not observed. As a result, the defense industry has pretty much lost its "sports form" and needs to be urgently restored. One of the main problems lies in the backwardness of equipment. While maintaining the same approach as it was under the Soviet Union, many enterprises in the nineties and two thousand could significantly upgrade the material part. However, the state at that time had other concerns and the capital modernization of the industry did not happen. Analysts have calculated that for the most efficient operation, defense enterprises should have 80% of new equipment, at least not older than 15-20 years. In this case, by 2020, it will be possible to increase the labor productivity of the defense industry by two and a half times. The machines, taken out as a trophy from Germany, are watched with mute reproach. They have a reason for this. So our enterprises will definitely find ways to use the allocated three trillion rubles with benefit.
However, improving production efficiency is not only based on machine tools and other equipment. All these mechanisms are led by people and you need to think about them first of all, which is the next consequence of rearmament.
3. Social sphere
It is not a secret for anyone that in recent years working specialties have lost their former prestige. A similar picture is observed with engineers. Therefore, the inflow of "fresh blood" into the defense industry was reduced to the size of a small stream. As a result, at one far from perfect moment a situation may occur in which the old-timers of production will have no one to transfer their experience and their knowledge. The main reason why young people hardly go to military production is that most defense enterprises are state-owned and, as a result, have been extremely poorly funded in recent decades, and this negatively affects the wages of workers. Naturally, a young ambitious person will go to work where they pay more.
But the social problems of the defense industry concern not only the influx of new personnel. At the moment, almost two million people work at 1,500 enterprises of the military-industrial complex. If we add the number of their family members to this figure, then two million will increase several times. It turns out that such an element of the economy as the wage rate actually affects a huge number of people. It turns out that the development of the defense industry, first of all, the flow of funding, will be able to improve the life of a tangible share of the country's population. Added to this is the fact that over the past twenty years our defense industry has been shaken by staff reductions. Accordingly, the implementation of GPV-2020 will require a new recruitment of workers. According to some estimates, after this recruitment, directly or indirectly, the defense industry will feed about a tenth of the country's total population. 23 trillion is a big price to pay. But it's worth it.
4. Economy of the future
20 trillion rubles for the purchase of weapons and three for the development of the defense industry will be allocated from the state budget. However, these figures only relate to the period up to and including 2020. What will happen after the twentieth is still unknown. It is likely that those in charge are already working on this issue. At the same time, the defense industry should not rely only on government money. It is understood that after the implementation of GPV-2020, our defense industry will be able to further increase its share in the world arms market. As a result, it will have more non-state money for the creation of new weapons systems and military equipment.
Already last year, our country managed to take the second place in the world in military exports - now we have only the United States. Catching up and overtaking America is not easy, and in general it is not necessary. The main thing in the export of weapons is to find our customers and constantly supply them with new systems. The Soviet Union used to work according to this scheme, and the States still do the same. It should be noted that the standards of the NATO alliance help the Americans to promote their products. Our situation with military blocs is much worse: the Warsaw Pact Organization collapsed long ago, and the CSTO is not yet suitable for its place. All that remains is the promotion of their weapons and military equipment in friendly countries. However, not everything is simple here either. As an example, we can cite the recent scandal five minutes before the loss of the Russian MiG-35 in the Indian competition. On the other hand, this aircraft is far from the only point of contact between Russia and India in the military-technical sphere.
The creation of new weapons systems in the future will allow not only not to lose last year's second place in sales, but also to improve the results. In addition to direct financial benefits, this will also help increase the number of friendly countries, so rearmament of your own army can have positive political consequences.
5. Ephemeral conversion
Finally, the fifth positive consequence of the rearmament and development of the defense industry. It consists in the production by the defense industry, in addition to the actual weapons, goods and products for non-military purposes. Conversion alone is a very, very controversial way of industrial development. Moreover, this time, not only the speculations of analysts, but also facts from the not so distant past can be used as arguments. In the eighties of the last century in our country they already tried to transfer the defense industry to a peaceful track, and it was not possible to achieve positive results. Unfortunately, almost always such a "re-alteration of the track" followed the same sad pattern. So, the state, and later the market, demanded some civilian product. The bright minds of the defense industry made a product that, at least, was not inferior to their competitors, but it turned out to be significantly more expensive. It is clear that it is not easy to repurpose a production that is sharpened for the manufacture of one product, so the price of a finished product from the defense industry turned out to be higher. But when trying to bring it to at least an acceptable level, the quality dropped. All for the same reason.
To justify the conversion, it must be said that some defense enterprises were still able to organize the production of peaceful products of decent quality and at a good price. True, there are fewer positive examples than negative ones. So, for every good news, for example, about how the "space" GSKB "Progress" is preparing for the release of the light-engine aircraft "Rysachok", there is a bad one. But here, too, the situation is gradually improving.
And yet there is still no need to talk about the effective combination of military and non-military production by defense enterprises. The first and main task of the domestic defense-industrial complex today is the modernization of production and the implementation of the state defense order. Therefore, conversion is still an ephemeral prospect. Interesting, but dubious or unrealistic.
Pros and cons
Complaints to GPV 2020 and all related activities can be divided into two categories. The first concern the expediency of investing such huge sums in defense, the second - corruption schemes. The issue of the "Great War of Cannons and Oil" has long been sorted out to pieces and it turned out that defense costs and their sharp reduction have almost no effect on the overall quality of life. As for the theft of money allocated by the state, then the existing control should be strengthened. In particular, D. Rogozin's proposal will be useful, who believes that corrupt officials from the defense industry should be punished without any leniency according to the upper limit established by the Criminal Code. It only remains to add that the trials of such criminals should be widely publicized. Coupled with long terms, this will act soberingly on those who have not yet reached the relevant authorities, and work like prevention.
Otherwise, there will be only advantages from investing 23 trillion in defense and defense. Improvement of defense capability, the rise of industry, improvement of the lives of people employed in the defense industry, investment in the future, and a number of other, minor consequences. All this is necessary for the country, although it will not come cheap. As a character in one movie said: "the price is great, but I will pay with pleasure."
