As you know, combat railway missile systems (BZHRK) with intercontinental ballistic missiles were built only in the Soviet Union and were in service only with Russian strategic missile forces. In other countries, primarily in the United States, attempts were made to develop such systems, but these projects were closed due to the complexity and lack of serious advantages over existing weapons. According to some reports, a new attempt to develop a BZHRK is currently being undertaken by China. It became known that the first tests of this system took place in early December.
The latest successes of the project to develop the Chinese "rocket train" are reported by the American edition of The Washington Free Beacon in Bill Hertz's article "China Tests New ICBM from Railroad Car", published on December 21. The author of this article, from his sources in the intelligence structures, managed to learn about the latest developments in the Chinese industry in the field of strategic weapons. It is reported that American intelligence officers learned about China's testing of a promising missile system based on a train.
At the very beginning of his article, B. Gertz notes that the missile system tested by China is capable of attacking targets throughout the United States. According to an unnamed source in the American military department, on December 5, the fact of the drop tests of the DF-41 missile was recorded at one of the test ranges in western China. It is noted that so far very little information is available about the new Chinese project of a promising BZHRK.
The alleged appearance of the BZHRK with the DF-41 missile. Photo by Free Beacon / Asian Arms Control Project
According to reports, not so long ago, a prototype of the missile system was delivered to the Wuzhai test site (a symbol used by American intelligence), also known as the Taiyuan cosmodrome in Shanxi province. The existence of this site, according to declassified CIA documents, has been known since 1982.
B. Gertz acknowledges that the recent tests of the missile system is an important milestone in the history of the Chinese defense industry. In addition, they show that China intends to strengthen its strategic nuclear forces not only with mobile ground-based missile systems, but also with similar rail-based systems. All this should seriously complicate the process of detecting and tracking missile systems on duty.
The Pentagon has so far declined to comment on the latest Chinese developments. Free Beacon reports that Defense Department spokesman Bill Urban did not comment on the situation. He noted that the military department does not intend to comment on the Chinese work in the development of new weapons, but is closely monitoring them.
The author of the American edition recalls that earlier images of a promising Chinese railway missile complex appeared in the public domain. These photographs show a DF-41 rocket mounted on a lift launcher, which in turn is mounted on the base of a railroad car.
It is reported that the DF-41 intercontinental ballistic missile is currently the most advanced representative of its class, created by the Chinese industry. According to unnamed sources, on the eve of the drop tests on a railway launcher, a rocket of this type was used in full flight tests. It is known that the DF-41 has a flight range of up to 7,500 miles (about 12, 5 thousand km) and is equipped with a split warhead with individually guided warheads.
B. Gertz refers to the opinion of unnamed military experts who assess the very concept of the BZHRK and its prospects. They believe that the main task of the emergence of such military equipment is to simplify the preservation of strategic nuclear forces in the event of an attack from a potential adversary. Mobile-based missiles can be dispersed over the territory of the country and thus removed from a preemptive strike, including by promising means of the so-called. a quick global strike. The Pentagon plans to adopt advanced weapons that will allow strikes against any targets in all regions of the planet within minutes. The presence of mobile launchers will allow the Chinese armed forces to save some of the missiles from a preemptive enemy strike.
American intelligence believes that the finished serial version of the DF-41 intercontinental missile will receive a multiple warhead with 10 nuclear warheads. Currently, Chinese ICBMs are equipped with monobloc warheads, which determines the specifics of the strategy for their use. The total ammunition load of the ground component of China's nuclear triad is estimated at 300 warheads. The adoption of the DF-41 missile will significantly increase the number of deployed warheads.
It is assumed that in its new project, China used some of the developments received from third countries. For example, the report of the Asian Arms Control Project at Georgetown University claims that the Chinese specialists used technologies obtained from Ukraine in their project. It was Ukrainian enterprises that, prior to the collapse of the Soviet Union, took an active part in the creation of a BZHRK with an SS-24 missile (RT-23UTTKh "Molodets").
B. Gertz recalls that back in 2006, Chinese television talked about a certain project to develop a combat railway missile system. The state TV channel featured launchers, command systems, etc. equipment based on wagons disguised as passenger cars.
Satellite image of the Taiyuan cosmodrome site with an experimental BZHRK launcher. Photo by Free Beacon / Potomac Foundation
In a report by Georgetown University specialists, as evidence of the use of Soviet-project developments received from Ukraine, some technical features of the two BZHRKs were indicated. So, the Chinese complex, like its Soviet predecessor, often referred to abroad as Land nuclear submarine ("Land nuclear submarine"), uses the system of the so-called. cold start with the release of the rocket from the transport and launch container before turning on the main engines.
As additional evidence, information was provided on Chinese plans to develop and build a developed railway network in the central part of the country. Numerous stretches and tunnels can be used to move the BZHRK during combat duty and perform various operations to maintain them.
The Free Beacon cites the opinion of Philip A. Carber, a military expert for the Potomac Foundation. He claims that not so long ago, specialists from this fund analyzed commercial satellite photographs and in one of them they found a DF-41 rocket installed on a special launch complex. If it really was a promising DF-41 ICBM, then it should carry a multiple warhead. The combination of high mobility, disguise as civilians, the possibility of building protected service facilities and multiple warheads makes the BZHRK an extremely difficult target for detection and tracking.
F. Carber, who is involved with the Georgetown University study, notes that the existence of a Chinese project for a combat railway missile system became known about four years ago. However, such reports were not taken seriously at the time. Since then, information has appeared about the construction in the interests of the 2nd artillery corps of China (the structure responsible for the operation and use of nuclear weapons) of about 2,000 km of special railways, which in the future can be used by "rocket trains".
A promising system of tracks and tunnels will significantly expand China's capabilities for nuclear missile strikes against targets in the United States. It becomes possible to divert the flight paths of ICBMs from Alaska, where American bases with interceptor missiles are located, protecting against attack. Experts also gained access to images of large tunnels, the dimensions of which allow simultaneously hiding up to three trains with special carriages.
The first official statements about the existence of a promising DF-41 intercontinental missile date back to August 2014. Chinese Defense Ministry spokesman Geng Yansheng said the new project was being developed for the security of the state. At the same time, the military does not consider any third countries as potential adversaries and targets for new missiles. Also, a representative of the Chinese Ministry of Defense raised the topic of disguise. According to him, the mobility of missile systems makes it extremely difficult to track them using reconnaissance satellites.
Back in 2013, the Chinese military came to conclusions about the prospects for the American rapid global strike program. The Chinese Defense Ministry believes that such strike systems pose a great danger to the Chinese strategic nuclear forces. This year, a new report was released by the Committee of the National People's Congress of China, dedicated to the security of the state. The authors of this document stressed the importance of creating and deploying new intercontinental ballistic missiles, which should be able to overcome the enemy's missile defense and be a full-fledged deterrent factor protecting the country from an attack by a potential adversary.
According to some reports, B. Gertz recalls, the Pentagon is currently considering the possibility of a symmetrical response to Russian and Chinese projects of mobile missile systems. To this end, American specialists are studying the possibility of creating mobile missile systems of various classes, based on automobile or railway equipment.
Also, the author of Free Beacon refers to an expert in the field of Chinese military programs, Rick Fisher. He claims that the Chinese military has been interested in the topic of the BZHRK for a long time. The Soviet SS-24 missile was transported by a special train and could deliver ten warheads at a distance of up to 10 thousand km. The newest Chinese rocket DF-41 has similar characteristics. China has some experience in creating railway equipment with high carrying capacity, which can be useful in the creation of a BZHRK.
According to R. Fisher, the similarity of the SS-24 and DF-41 is not limited only to the general features of the appearance of the complexes. He believes that the Chinese ICBM, like the Soviet / Russian counterpart, uses the so-called. cold start with the ejection of a rocket from a container using a powder pressure accumulator. The specialist believes that the purpose of recent tests was precisely to test a similar method of ejecting a rocket from a transport and launch container.
Presumably a car with a launcher. Photo by Free Beacon / Asian Arms Control Project
Fischer recalls the benefits of a cold start. The ejection of the rocket with the engines turned on after leaving the transport and launch container imposes less high requirements on the design of the latter. Because of this, such a launch method is preferable for promising rocket technology.
The expert touched upon the topic of the length of the Chinese railways. At the moment, the country, according to R. Fisher, has 74,565 miles of railways, including 9942 miles of high-speed ones. By the end of the decade, the total length of Chinese roads will increase to 170,000 miles. Thus, promising Chinese BZHRKs will be able to quickly disperse over the territory of the country, for which both conventional and high-speed roads can be used. The characteristics of the DF-41 missiles, in turn, will double the number of deployed warheads, as well as attack targets throughout the United States from anywhere in China.
The buildup of the Chinese nuclear potential, according to R. Fischer, should induce the American leadership to reconsider its views on limitations in the field of strategic arms. At present, the expert recalls, Moscow and Beijing are intensifying their military-political and military-technical cooperation. Official Washington must take into account these circumstances, including the risk of combining Russian and Chinese efforts in the field of nuclear missiles. Such a combined force could turn out to be a serious tool for putting pressure on the United States, for example, on the issue of Taiwan's independence, which the Chinese leadership refuses to recognize.
B. Gertz recalls that Russia is currently also developing its new "rocket train". The commander of the Strategic Missile Forces, Colonel-General Sergei Karakaev previously mentioned that the project (code name "Barguzin") will be ready by 2017. A few days ago, on December 17, he said that the preliminary version of the project is already ready, and now preparations are underway for the development of a complete set of necessary documentation.
The new Russian BZHRK should be based on some developments on the old project, created in Soviet times. According to Russian media, the emergence of a new railway missile system should be an asymmetric response to the American program of the so-called. a quick global strike.
Various fragmentary information about the Chinese BZHRK project has appeared over the past several years. Now, thanks to the sources of Bill Hertz in intelligence organizations, it became known about the testing of a promising system. According to the latest data, on December 5, Chinese experts conducted throw tests of the (presumably) DF-41 missile on a railway launcher. So far, as follows from the latest reports, the Chinese industry is working on the process of ejecting a rocket from a transport and launch container.
In the future, full-fledged launches with the help of new launch systems and other tests should be expected, up to a full-fledged exit of a "rocket train" to a firing position, followed by an attack on a training target and leaving the launch area. It will probably take several years to complete all the necessary work.
The author of The Washington Free Beacon rightly notes the positive qualities inherent in railway missile systems. Such equipment is capable of plying on the existing railway network and waiting for an order to perform a launch. At the same time, trains with special equipment and weapons have minimal differences from other trains, which contributes to their camouflage. China's railways can theoretically hide a significant number of missile-armed trains, and plans to expand the network will only increase its potential.
Experts have already learned the main characteristics and features of the DF-41 rocket. According to open sources, this product will be able to attack targets at ranges up to 12, 5 thousand km and deliver ten individually guided warheads to them. Combined with the ability to launch missiles from almost anywhere in China, these characteristics make the DF-41 an extremely dangerous weapon for the enemy, capable of controlling almost half of the globe.
The timing of the completion of work on the new project and the adoption of a promising BZHRK for service are still in question. From the latest news, it is clear that Chinese specialists, using some Soviet developments, were able to develop a new weapon system, as well as bring it to the stages of the first tests of the launcher and missile. Subsequent work may take at least several years, but the manifestation of certain problems can lead to a delay in the project.
The crew of a promising Chinese BZHRK. Photo by Free Beacon / Asian Arms Control Project
Without claiming to be the ultimate truth, it can be assumed that the project for the development of the Chinese BZHRK will be completed by the end of this decade. Soon after that, the industry will master the serial construction of new equipment and begin to supply it to the troops. The new "rocket trains" are likely to be operated by the 2nd Artillery Corps, which is in charge of other ground-based missile systems. Thus, a twofold increase in the number of deployed munitions, predicted by American experts, may occur by the middle of the next decade.
It is noted that the appearance of the Chinese BZHRK can be a kind of asymmetric response to the American program of a rapid global strike. Thanks to the implementation of this project, China will be able to withdraw most of its deployed missiles with warheads from the attack of a potential enemy. From the point of view of the United States, such a move by official Beijing may look quite menacing. What the US response will be is not yet entirely clear. Perhaps the American leadership will decide to strengthen its group of reconnaissance satellites or solve the search problem by other means. In addition, it is possible to concentrate ships with anti-missile missiles in the supposed areas of overflight of Chinese ICBMs, which will allow maintaining the grouping of anti-missiles on the DF-41 flight path. One way or another, it is required to create some rather complex structure for the search and, if necessary, the destruction of Chinese BZHRK.
In the context of the new Chinese project, it is also worth touching on its possible role in the hypothetical confrontation between China and Russia. American experts believe that in the future, Moscow and Beijing may join forces for joint pressure on Washington, but one cannot exclude the possibility of events developing according to a scenario less optimistic for Russia. It is not hard to guess that a promising BZHRK with a DF-41 missile could pose a serious threat not only to the United States, but also to Russia and even to Europe. The known characteristics will allow this complex to “keep at gunpoint” significant parts of the Russian territory.
Countering such a threat will be fraught with challenges. Every effort will be required to locate missile-armed trains on patrol routes and locate their bases or secret tunnels with maintenance equipment. Taking into account the peculiarities of the existing constellation of reconnaissance satellites, the solution of such a task can be quite difficult. How exactly this problem will be solved - time will tell.
According to recent reports, the Chinese industry is actively engaged in the creation of a promising strategic weapons system with a number of characteristic features. The exact characteristics of this system and the timing of the completion of the work are still unknown, but now foreign specialists and military leaders have cause for concern. As the article by B. Gertz in The Washington Free Beacon and the opinions of experts cited in it shows, the DF-41 missile and the railway complex for its launch, even without leaving the test stage, can influence the plans of many states.
