During the recent official visit of Russian President Dmitry Medvedev to the PRC, no contracts on military-technical cooperation were signed. Aide to the President of the Russian Federation Sergei Prikhodko said on September 24 that Moscow and Beijing would not conclude new agreements in the field of military-technical cooperation, although, according to him, “there are several projects under consideration, in particular on aviation and naval issues.” Prikhodko acknowledged the fact of a decrease in the volume of Russian military exports to China, as well as the problem of competition between the Russian Federation and the PRC in the markets of third countries.
THE EPOCH OF LARGE-SCALE DELIVERY IS COMPLETED
Since the early 1990s, China, along with India, has been the largest importer of Russian arms for a long period of time. Large-scale deliveries were made in the field of aviation and naval equipment, as well as air defense systems.
According to the World Arms Trade Analysis Center (CAMTO), China has become the largest buyer of aircraft of the Su-27 / Su-30 family. A total of 178 fighters of the Su-27 / Su-30 family were delivered to the PRC, including 38 single-seat Su-27SK fighters and 40 two-seat Su-27UBK combat training aircraft, 76 Su-30MKK multipurpose fighters and 24 Su-30MK2 fighters. … Taking into account 105 Su-27SKs assembled in Shenyang under license, the total number of Su-brand fighters in China is 283 aircraft.
Regarding the licensed assembly of Su-27SK aircraft in Shenyang, it should be noted that back in 1996, China acquired a license to manufacture 200 Su-27SK aircraft without the right to re-export to third countries. By the end of 2007, 105 aircraft were assembled from the vehicle kits supplied by Russia. In the future, negotiations on the supply of another 95 vehicle kits for the assembly of the Su-27SK reached a dead end. In fact, Beijing abandoned the further implementation of this licensing program, creating a clone of this aircraft - the J-11 fighter.
China has been the largest customer for Russian air defense systems for a long period of time, deliveries of which began in the early 1990s. In 1993, for the first time, the S-300PMU system was delivered to China as part of two anti-aircraft missile divisions. In 1994, a second contract was signed, under which in 1996 the PLA received the S-300PMU-1 air defense system as part of four missile divisions.
Under two contracts, 35 Tor-M1 air defense systems were delivered to the PRC in several batches: 14 complexes in 1997, 13 complexes in 1999-2000 and 8 complexes in 2001.
In 2002, a contract was signed for the sale of two S-300FM Rif-M shipborne air defense systems. The deliveries were made in 2002-2003.
In 2004, another contract, signed in 2001, was completed for the supply of S-300PMU-1 air defense systems to China, consisting of four missile divisions.
In August 2004, Rosoboronexport signed an agreement with China on the S-300PMU-2 Favorit air defense system. This contract became the first export order for the Favorit system, which the Russian Federation began to promote on the world market since 2001.
Under this contract, China in 2007-2008 received two command posts 83M6E2, eight anti-aircraft missile systems (SAM) 90Zh6E2, one set of 48N6E2 anti-aircraft missiles and technical support equipment.
In December 2005, a contract was signed with China for the supply of the second batch of S-300PMU-2 Favorit air defense systems, the cost of which is estimated at $ 1 billion. The deliveries were made in 2008-2010.
In the TDC segment in the second half of the 1990s. China received two diesel-electric submarines of project 877EKM. In 1997-1998 Russia supplied China with two diesel-electric submarines of Project 636 "Kilo".
In May 2002, Rosoboronexport signed a contract for the supply for the PLA Navy of eight Project 636 Kilo diesel-electric submarines equipped with the Club-S missile system. The bulk of the deliveries of these submarines was realized in 2005. The last, eighth diesel-electric submarine was delivered in the spring of 2006.
In 1999-2000, China received two Project 956E destroyers of the Sovremenny class with 3M-80E Mosquito supersonic anti-ship missiles. Under the second contract in 2005-2006, the PLA navy received two more destroyers of the improved 965EM project.
A large number of helicopters of various types were delivered to the PRC, as well as weapons for the Ground Forces, including the Smerch MLRS, Krasnopol-M UAS, Metis ATGM, Konkurs and other weapons. A contract for the supply of nine Ka-28 and nine Ka-31 deck helicopters is underway.
The fact that Beijing has now limited cooperation with Russia on the purchase of military equipment is due to the fact that in recent years the capabilities of the Chinese defense industry have significantly increased, which, along with its own developments, successfully copies many samples of Russian weapons.
Currently, the exception is the RD-93 engines intended for motorization of light Chinese fighters FC-1 (JF-17 "Thunder") and AL-31FN, which are supplied to the PRC by MMPP "Salyut" to replace exhausted engines of Su-27 fighters., as well as equipping J-10 aircraft (R&D on the AL-31FN engine for the Chinese J-10 fighter was completed in 2000).
In the future, it is possible that Beijing will purchase Su-33 deck-based fighters for promising aircraft carriers of the PLA Navy, if the Chinese copy of the J-15 does not meet the required characteristics, as well as multifunctional Su-35 fighters. China will also purchase aircraft missiles for the PLA Air Force's Su-27 / Su-30 fighters.
Deck-based fighters of the Su-33 type are needed by the PRC in connection with plans for the construction of aircraft carriers. China began negotiations with Russia on the purchase of the Su-33 several years ago. Initially, it was about the acquisition of two Su-33s to assess their flight performance. Russia was not satisfied with this option. Subsequently, Beijing offered the Russian Federation to sell a batch of 12-14 vehicles. However, Moscow considered this option also unacceptable for itself. With such an order, it was unprofitable to launch a production line. In addition, the Russian side feared a technology leak, given that the PRC has unique experience in copying Russian weapons.
Sukhoi's latest proposal called for the delivery to China of the first batch of 12-14 Su-33s in standard configuration, which would be used by the PLA Navy as a training squadron, and 36 or more advanced carrier-based fighters. In the end, however, the negotiations reached an impasse. It should be noted that in parallel with lengthy negotiations with Russia on the purchase of the Su-33, China was simultaneously actively working on the creation of the J-15, which is a clone of the Su-33.
In November 2010, the next meeting of the Russian-Chinese intergovernmental commission on military-technical cooperation is expected. Perhaps at this meeting the issue of J-15 (clone Su-33) and J-11 (clone Su-27SK) will be raised. The Russian side intends to resolve these issues within the framework of agreements on the protection of intellectual property signed between the RF and the PRC.
In the future, sales of Russian RD-93 and AL-31FN engines to the PRC may continue if their Chinese counterparts do not meet the required performance characteristics.
In addition to reducing military exports to China, in the short term, Russia will face tough competition from the PRC in the markets of a number of countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America, which cannot afford to buy expensive Western-made weapons.
Earlier, the Russian Federation successfully competed with China in this price segment. However, now the cost of Russian weapons is catching up with Western models of weapons. For this reason, Beijing will begin to gradually oust Russia from the markets of a number of countries with limited military budgets. It should be noted that the cost of the most popular Chinese-made weapons on the world market is 20–40% lower than the Russian counterparts from which they were copied or created on their basis.
At the same time, the PRC offers preferential terms of settlements, financing, loans, as well as payment by installments.
PRIORITIES OF THE CHINESE DIC
China has several major military aviation programs. These are fighters of the 4th and 5th generations, an attack helicopter and a general-purpose helicopter, an AWACS / UBS L-15 aircraft and a transport aircraft. In addition, various versions of the UAV are being developed.
The PRC expects to complete the development of the 5th generation fighter by 2020. The technical characteristics of the car are still unknown.
In December 2009, the first successful test of the J-15 carrier-based fighter (Su-33 clone) was carried out.
An active marketing campaign was launched to promote the J-10 fighters to the world market. The first customer was Pakistan, which will be supplied with 36 vehicles. In the future, Islamabad will purchase an additional batch of J-10 aircraft.
A program for the licensed production of light fighters JF-17 "Thunder" (Chinese designation FC-1), which should form the basis of the Pakistani Air Force in the coming years, is also being implemented with Pakistan. In total, Pakistan plans to produce up to 250 such fighters.
It is noteworthy that the Egyptian government has begun negotiations with Pakistan on the joint production of Chinese JF-17 (FC-1) fighters. The purchase volume can be at least 48 units.
Hyundai Aviation Industry Corp. (HAIC) completed the development of the L-15 two-seat supersonic jet trainer / UBS and began preparations for the small-scale production phase. On the world market, the L-15 will be a direct competitor to the Hawk Mk.128, M-346, T-50 Golden Eagle and Yak-130UBS.
The state corporation AVIC plans to present a prototype of a 220-ton class heavy transport aircraft by the end of this year. Responsible for the project is Xian Aircraft (a division of AVIC).
In March this year, the first prototype of the AC313 heavy helicopter developed by the Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AICC) made its maiden flight. The carrying capacity of the helicopter is 13.5 tons, and in the future it can be increased to 15 tons.
AVIC Corporation in August this year demonstrated the first prototype of the new Z-19 attack helicopter designed to combat tanks. The new machine was created on the basis of the Z-9W attack helicopter project, which is a modification of the AS-365N built under the French license.
China offers modern types of weapons in other segments as well. In particular, CPMIEC (China National Precision Machinery Import and Export Corporation) offers the HQ-9 complex (export designation FD-2000) for the Turkish tender for long-range air defense systems. In this tender, China competes with Russia, as well as with the Lockheed Martin / Raytheon consortium.
China offers competitive systems to the world market in the segments of naval equipment, armored vehicles, MLRS, air defense radars, MANPADS, anti-ship missiles, ATGMs, and SAO.
For example, the Chinese company Poly Technologies offers foreign customers an improved version of the 122-mm Type-81 multiple launch rocket system developed by North Industries Corp. (NORINCO).
NORINCO has also developed the VP1 tracked armored personnel carrier, which expands the range of products offered for export by this company.
The Poly Technologies company is implementing a marketing campaign to promote the WZ-523 armored personnel carrier with a 6x6 wheel arrangement under the designation Type-05P to the world market.
NORINCO has launched a marketing program to promote the new AR3 MLRS to the world market. The installation was developed on the basis of an 8x8 high-performance truck chassis, which is already used on the AR1A and AR2 MLRSs previously adopted and offered for export.
The CAO PLZ-45 program can be a successful project. The customers of 155-mm CAO PLZ-45 were Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.
For the first time, China may become a real competitor in the global non-nuclear submarine market. According to reports, at the government level, China and Pakistan are discussing the possibility of supplying several submarines to the Pakistani Navy. The type of submarines and possible delivery times were not disclosed.
In the field of naval technology, China already occupies a fairly strong position in the segments of missile and patrol boats, as well as frigates.
POSITION OF THE PRC IN THE WORLD WEAPON MARKETS
According to TSAMTO, Pakistan will account for about half of China's military exports. At the same time, the share of other countries in the total volume of China's military exports will gradually increase.
The second division of the largest importers of Chinese MPP in the near term will include Myanmar, Venezuela and Egypt. The Iranian market remains in question.
The third division in terms of import value will be formed by Morocco, Saudi Arabia and Ecuador.
China will expand its presence in markets such as Bolivia, Turkey, Indonesia, Thailand, Kenya, Nigeria, Timor Leste, Peru, Bangladesh, Ghana and Argentina.
At the moment, the structure of China's military exports is similar to that of Russia 10 years ago. Unlike the Russian Federation, the overwhelming part of whose exports were to China and India, China's military exports are primarily focused on Pakistan. Egypt is the second largest importer of Chinese weapons, far behind Pakistan.
This imbalance is also confirmed by the regional analysis of China's military exports. Over the past 8 years (2002-2009), the share of the APR region in the total balance of military exports of the PRC amounted to 56%, the Middle East - 25.4%, the countries of "black" Africa (states located south of the Sahara Desert) - 12.9%, South America - 4.3%, North and North-East Africa - 1.4%. Over the past 8 years, China has failed to achieve progress in five regions of the world - North America, Western Europe, Eastern Europe, countries in the post-Soviet space and countries of Central America and the Caribbean.
According to TSAMTO, in the period 2002-2009, in terms of the volume of identified military exports, China ranks 12th in the world (4, 665 billion dollars).
The overwhelming volume of export of military products for this period falls on Pakistan - 1.979 billion dollars, which is 42.4% of the total export of military products by China. The second place is occupied by Egypt (502 million dollars, 10, 8%), the third place is taken by Iran (260.5 million dollars, 5, 6%).
Of this group of countries, Russia does not compete with China in the Pakistani market, since it does not supply military products to this country (with the exception of transport helicopters). On the Egyptian market, the Russian Federation and the PRC are direct competitors in a number of weapons systems, in particular, in aviation.
With regard to Iran, on June 9, 2010, the UN Security Council adopted Resolution No. 1929, which prohibits the sale to the Islamic Republic of Iran of all seven categories of conventional weapons according to the UN Register classification. China and Russia voted in favor of this resolution.
The second group of the largest importers of Chinese arms in the period 2002-2009 includes Nigeria ($ 251.4 million), Bangladesh ($ 221.1 million), Zimbabwe ($ 203 million), Kuwait ($ 200 million). dollars), Jordan (185 million dollars), Venezuela (140 million dollars) and Malaysia (100 million dollars). Of this group of countries, China is ahead of Russia in Nigeria, Bangladesh, Zimbabwe and Kuwait, significantly behind Russia in Jordan, Venezuela and Malaysia.
The third group for the period 2002-2009 includes Thailand ($ 81.3 million), Cambodia ($ 80 million), Myanmar ($ 65.3 million), Sri Lanka ($ 57.1 million). $), Sudan ($ 50 million), Namibia ($ 42 million), Bolivia ($ 35 million), Ghana ($ 30 million), Oman ($ 28 million) and Zambia ($ 15 million). In this group of countries, China is ahead of Russia in Thailand, Cambodia, Sri Lanka, Namibia, Bolivia, Oman and Zambia. RF has an advantage in the market of Myanmar, Sudan and Ghana. It should be noted that China and Russia almost simultaneously entered into large contracts with Myanmar for the supply of aviation equipment. Deliveries under these contracts are planned for 2010 and beyond, so they are not included in this calculation. On the whole, a very tough competition has developed in the Myanmar market between Moscow and Beijing.
The fourth group for the period 2002-2009 includes Mexico ($ 14 million), Nepal ($ 14 million).dollars), Indonesia ($ 13.2 million), Rwanda ($ 11 million), Tanzania ($ 11 million), Peru ($ 10.5 million), Algeria ($ 10 million).), Iraq ($ 10 million), Kenya ($ 10 million) and Congo ($ 10 million). In this group of countries, China is ahead of Russia in Rwanda, Tanzania, Kenya and Congo. Russia has an advantage in Mexico, Indonesia (overwhelming), Peru, Algeria (overwhelming), and Iraq. In terms of the volume of export of military products to Nepal, the Russian Federation and the PRC have a parity.
The fifth group for the period 2002-2009 includes Gabon ($ 9 million), Uganda ($ 6 million), Chad ($ 5 million), Cameroon ($ 4 million), Mauritania ($ 1 million). USD), Niger (1 million USD). In this group of countries, China is ahead of Russia in Gabon, Cameroon and Mauritania. RF has an advantage in Uganda, Chad and Niger.
According to the current portfolio of orders with the supply of military equipment in 2010-2013, Pakistan occupies the first place in the structure of China's military exports - $ 4.421 billion, or 68.2% of the total export portfolio of China's orders for the period 2010-2013 in the amount of 6, 481 billion dollars. The second place is occupied by Myanmar (700 million dollars, or 10, 8%). The third place is occupied by Venezuela (492 million dollars, or 7, 6%).
The next places in the structure of China's military exports with delivery in 2010–2013 are occupied by Morocco ($ 300 million), Saudi Arabia ($ 200 million), Ecuador ($ 120 million), Bolivia ($ 57.9 million). dollars), Indonesia (36 million dollars), Thailand (35.7 million dollars), Kenya (30 million dollars), East Timor (28 million dollars), Peru (24.2 million dollars). dollars), Bangladesh (18 million dollars), Ghana (15 million dollars) and Argentina (2.8 million dollars).
