Old "allies"
One of the main aviation news in April this year was the news of an agreement between France and Germany, aimed, among other things, at the creation of a new generation fighter. This was announced at the International Aviation and Space Fair ILA-2018, which was held in Berlin. The complex received the designation Système de combat aérien du futur (SCAF).
The word "complex" perfectly reveals the essence of the agreement. And the point is not even that every modern fighter aircraft is a set of complex systems. The agreement reached should become "a key element of European security." It will combine the development of the fighter itself, a number of unmanned aerial vehicles, as well as interaction, control and management systems. As an approximate date for the appearance of the new aircraft, 2040 was named, but there are no guarantees that this will actually be the case and that the test dates will not be postponed. In the case of such complex and expensive developments, this cannot be ruled out.
Little is known about the future fighter itself. Now there are two main characters, and they are more than weighty. These are the pan-European aircraft manufacturer Airbus and the national French Dassault Aviation. “We are ready and we say to our defense ministries and our authorities: we are ready, now let's get down to business,” said Dassault Aviation CEO Eric Trapier. The "first violin" will be exactly the company from France. There is nothing surprising in this: behind her back is the creation of such world-renowned machines as the Dassault Mirage 2000 and Dassault Rafale.
Dassault Rafale
Strictly speaking, in modern Europe, only France can be called a country that has a full cycle of fighter aircraft development. The British aircraft industry is no longer capable of developing and mass production of such machines. The famous "Harrier" even in the 60s could hardly be called "the king of the sky", and after him the British switched to cooperation with other European countries. In the case of Germany, the national military aviation after the Second World War became a "taboo" at all. The times of fears of a new Hitler coming to power are long gone, but cooperation in this matter with other states for the Germans is still more priority than the purely national aircraft industry.
Dassault and New Fighter
The news about the new fighter in itself did not come as a surprise. The signing of the agreement could take place in a year or, for example, in two. With vague formulations about "the threat of a new war in Europe" and unclear terms of implementation. What really surprised me was the concept of a new generation fighter unveiled by Airbus Defense and Space last November. The spectacular presentation gave a general idea of the car with the uncomplicated name of New Fighter. It should become part of an extensive military program. According to the plan, the fighters will interact with both AWACS aircraft and the satellite constellation, and with new UAVs. The concept was drawn with a clear emphasis on stealth, which, of course, makes it related to the F-22 and the Russian PAK FA. On the other hand, the thesis of "technology theft" expressed by air amateurs is completely wrong here. The aircraft shown in the image is made according to the tailless aerodynamic configuration. Very popular with Europeans. At the same time, both the F-22, the F-35 and the Su-57 have a normal aerodynamic configuration. The presence of an analogue of the swivel-front rush that we see on the PAK FA is also not serious evidence that European aircraft manufacturers have lost their identity.
New fighter
The question, in general, is different. The featured New Fighter may not have anything to do with the future fighter. Dassault engineers can use some developments, but with a high degree of probability the demonstrated concept will remain just a beautiful picture, and the European fighter of the future will be created, as they say, from scratch.
In this regard, one cannot fail to mention the main trend of recent years. Namely, about the creation of unmanned aerial vehicles. So far, they have proven themselves well as scouts and as a means of pinpoint strikes on the ground. But this is for now. In the future, the fighter will probably also be unmanned. So the New Fighter (and it is declared primarily as a manned vehicle) may be incorrect, purely conceptually.
Another option that is often paid attention to: the possibility of coexistence on the same base of a manned and unmanned fighter. When one controlled aircraft acts as the control center for a "flock" of drones. An interesting approach that can get you started. But it is not a fact that in the case of SCAF they will choose exactly this direction. At this stage, it is generally useless to draw any conclusions. More or less accurately it will be possible to judge when (if) the technology demonstrator will be presented. Offhand: you will have to wait at least five to ten years. During this time, the role of ethereal systems will only increase.
New fighter
Attempt number five
Finally, the most important thing. That, without discussing which, in principle, it makes no sense to talk about the Système de combat aérien du futur. SCAF is far from the first attempt to create something European. Now few people remember that BAE Systems worked in the 1990s on the FOAS (Future Offensive Air System) program, which was closed only in 2005. They wanted to create a promising combat aircraft to replace the Tornado GR.4 in the Royal Air Force. Later, the program was renamed DPOC (Deep and Persistent Offensive Capability) and finally closed in 2010. All that remains of the British endeavors is a full-scale mock-up of a promising combat aircraft. They applied the experience gained in the case of the Taranis UAV. Well, the French decided to create their own nEUROn, in general, similar to the British development. Taranis and nEUROn, however, are indirectly related to full-fledged new generation fighters. Still, different classes of combat vehicles.
Here, perhaps, it will be appropriate to recall that once the Eurofighter Typhoon and Dassault Rafale were supposed to be "one whole". In 1983, at a meeting of the Chiefs of Staff of the Air Forces of France, Germany, Great Britain, Italy and Spain, they decided to create a consortium "Eurofighter", which would create a European fighter of a new generation. Already at the stage of forming the tactical and technical assignment, the participants began to argue: France, unlike others, needed not only a land plane, but also a carrier-based aircraft. They were not satisfied with the weight and some other parameters. The result is well known to all of us: France withdrew from the consortium, ultimately creating its own "Rafale".
But do not forget that there was a cold war then. It would seem that not the best time for disagreements between the allies. In any case, in the face of a real threat from the East, it was easier for the Europeans to come to an agreement than now, when the military threat to the EU is ephemeral, and the chances of really pushing the United States out of the world fighter aircraft market are not very high.
In such conditions, a new "divorce" between Germany and France cannot be ruled out. Another quite possible option is to release the project on the brakes. Under the bravura speeches of German politicians about the merits of the F-35, which Germany has been strongly inclined to buy in recent years. Both of these scenarios, of course, are far from the only ones, but so far they look the most realistic.
F-35
Until Europe is able to work out its own vector of development that does not depend on the United States, it is generally difficult to talk about such ambitious projects. As a last resort, the Americans will try to drive a wedge into the agreement between the French and the Germans, but so far they don't even need that. Lockheed Martin is quite confident in the global aircraft market. And every year Europe has less to offer.
